Obama On Settlements: Bold Step Or Huge Mis-step

If you ask Marty Peretz, it's definitely the latter:

We are now at the beginning of another one of those passages during which the American president will take on the role of a match-maker. His first steps, however, have been gargantuan missteps. To be sure, the Netanyahu government is shaky on many issues including the all-important budget to which the prime minister is trying to attach a value added taxes on food, very unpopular even in his own party. Yet Obama's insistence on a complete building freeze on all of the settlements has instantaneously unified virtually all of Israel behind Bibi -at least on this matter. And it will extend to other issues, too.

Both Obama and secretary Clinton muddled the whole settlement problem by not making distinctions. Not that I think distinctions resolve the matter. But there are areas of Jerusalem seized during the Six Day War (started in the city, just in case the president hasn't internalized the fact, by Jordan) that have been Jewish Jerusalem neighborhoods virtually ever since. A settlement freeze destroys every natural process in demography. This is really chutzpah.

Some really nice left-wing people live in these areas, and many of them are quite willing to take enormous concessions upon Israel. What they are not willing to do is leave their homes and break up communities that probably include 150,000 of the capitol's Jewish population of half a million. In fact, this is one of those cases in which hyperbole is reasonable: this will not happen until hell freezes over.

Ironically, instead of joining those who see Obama's pressure as potentially leading to the fall of Netanyahu's coalition, Peretz sees Obama as (unintentionally) strengthening Netanyahu's support among Israelis.

And he addresses head on the absurdity of Obama's single-minded focus on the settlements:

Yes, there are Jewish settlements and other Jewish settlements. Maybe some of the other ones will remain just where they are and under Palestinian sovereignty. As there are many Arab towns and cities in Israel. Why is it ordained that no Israelis can live in Palestine and that 1.5 million Palestinian Arabs can live in Israel.

Read the whole thing.

While others are waiting to hear the other shoe drop when Obama speaks in Cairo, Peretz sees the speech as Obama's opportunity to correct his blunder.

Let's hope that Peretz's contrarian view is correct.

UPDATE: Noah Pollak agrees that Obama has misjudged the situation:

But the problem for Obama is that the peace process — and security matters generally — are things on which there is a newfound consensus in Israel. The politics of the 1990’s don’t apply today. Israelis have seen how territorial withdrawals and fraudulent peace processes get repaid in blood. I could be wrong, but I doubt that Obama, after manufacturing strife between the two countries, will find either Israeli voters or members of the governing coalition turning on Bibi. In fact, probably the opposite will happen.

...If Obama convinces Israelis that they do not have a genuine ally in Washington, the Israeli strategic calculation will necessarily change. And it will be a change that pushes Washington further to the periphery of Israeli decision-making than Obama probably wants. Alienating allies and pressuring them to adopt untenable policies has a price, and the price is reduced influence. I’m not sure our president understands that.

Read the whole thing.

The question is whether Obama has one more flip-flop up his sleeve.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad

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