Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Barry Rubin Describes Why A Successful Kerry Peace Treaty Would Bring Chaos To The Middle East

I am intensely focused on this issue and the region because it is vital really to American interests and regional interests to try and advance the peace process and because this festering absence of peace is used by groups everywhere to recruit and encourage extremism.
John Kerry


But would a peace process brought to a successful conclusion really decrease that extremism that John Kerry seems to be so concerned about?

John Kerry

Barry Rubin takes Kerry to task, explaining Why “Progress” Toward Israel-Palestinian “Peace” Is More Likely to Bring Regional Instability.

Think about it: what would be the likely scenario upon the announcement of a peace treaty between Israel and the Abbas regime?

Briefly:

  • If Israel and the Palestinian Authority were to announce a peace treaty, radical Islamists would go all out to prevent it.

  • The government of Palestine would face domestic opposition, including assassination attempts. Meanwhile, rival Palestinian factions would claim to be more militant than their rivals and would increase attacks on Israel in order to prove their credentials. The Palestinian government would be forces to either disclaim responsibility -- or proclaim them to be heroes.

  • Hamas opposition -- consistently ignored by those who press for peace talks with Abbas -- would ensure the failure of the deal, after Israel would have made major territorial concessions and taken dangerous risks. Hamas, with the assistance of their mentors in the Muslim Brotherhood, would increase its attacks on Israel from Gaza, while their forces in the West Bank would seek to overthrow the Abbas regime.

  • Hamas would attempt to carry out terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians to break the deal -- in a repeat of the atrocities it carried out during the 1993-2000 “Oslo peace process” period, while  Hizballah would also increase attacks on Israel from Lebanon, and armed Islamist militias would back the Palestinian insurgents while staging cross-border attacks attacks against Israel
This explains not only the reluctance of the Abbas regime to negotiate with Israel, but also why Arafat himself refused to be come to an agreement, despite Clinton's best efforts.

And this is all without considering the implications for the US -- imagine the backlash against the the country behind perpetuating the "injustice" to the Palestinians and strengthening the "Zionist entity".

Read the whole thing.

Has Kerry really thought this through?
Has Obama?


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