When Democracy Doesn't Work Anymore: For Egypt Nor The United States

Remember those heady days of the Arab Spring in Egypt in 2011?
Do you recall the pictures of protests in Tahrir Square and the promise of democracy and change made possible with Facebook and Twitter?

Demonstrators on Army Truck in Tahrir Square, Cairo Date: 29 January 2011
Photographed by: Ramy Raoof

Things did not quite turn out the way they were supposed to.

Arlene Kushner on Reason For Hope -- While Reasons for Concern During "Ramadan Rage"

From Arlene Kushner:
July 2, 2015

Facing Down Violence

As has become my practice of late, I’m going to start with a good news item, saving the somber stuff for later.  Here we have a brief video that should put a smile on your face and a touch of hope in your heart:

הרפורמציה הפרוטסטנטית החלה במאה ה-16 ונמשכה גם למאה ה-17.היא החלה כמחאה ואי קבלה של הכנסיה הקתולית ומרותה שכן רבים הרגישו כי האליטה השלטת אופיינה בשחיתות וריקבון. המנהיג הבולט ביותר של הרפורמה הזו היה הכומר מרטין לותר שיזכר לדורות כפורץ דרך אמיץ. בתקופה ההיא, היו המון נוצרים שהאמינו באדיקות בדתם, אך לא הסכימו לשחיתות ולטרור שהושלט ע״י הכנסייה הקתולית (מסעות הצלב והאינקוויזיציה בין היתר). כך החל תהליך של שינוי שגרר גם תגובת נגד מצד הזרם הקתולי. הזרם הקתולי הבין שאם לא תהיה רפורמה גם שם, הם יאבדו את כל המאמינים שלהם לטובת הפרוטסטנטיים.ככה התמתנה הדת הנוצרית והפכה סובלנית יותר כפי שאנחנו מכירים אותה היום.בדיוק את אותו התהליך גם האסלאם צריך לעבור.כשנתקלים במישהי מדהימה כמו שרה זועבי, זה מחזק את האמונה שהתהליך הזה בוודאות יקרה.השינוי יכול להגיע רק בזכות אנשים אמיצים כמוה, כמו הבן שלה וכמו רבים שאוהבים את דתם אבל סולדים מהשחיתות והטרור שהשתלטה עלייה.מי שסובל בעיקר היום מהטרור המוסלמי, הם המוסלמים עצמם. במזרח התיכון הם סובלים ממשטרים טוטאליטריים שמענים את עמם ואף מוציאים להורג ללא משפטבמדינות ערב מתחילה להתעורר איסלאמופוביה שפוגעת גם במוסלמים שלווים.המוסלמים הם הראשונים שאמורים לצאת נגד האיסלאם הקיצוני.לגבי המציאות הישראלית,הגאולה לא תבוא מארגונים קיצוניים שרצים לפרלמנטים אירופאיים בשביל להציג מצגי שווא ולהתחנף ע״י הלשנה מסולפת על מנת להכריח את עמם לפעולות לא הגיוניות על פי דעת הרוב. הגאולה גם לא תבוא מגזענים חשוכים שחושבים שהפתרון הוא סילוק כל מי שלא חושב כמוהם או נמנה ביו בני דתם המונעים משנאה בוערת. הגאולה תבוא אך ורק מאנשים אמיצים ופורצי דרך כאלו שהדבר המהותי שמניע אותם היא גאווה ואהבה לכל הזהויות שלהם.הדו קיום היפה הזה ששרה זועבי מציגה בצורה מושלמת, לא אומר לוותר על הזהות שלך. יש פה עיקרון של שפע. שרה זועבי מצליחה להעביר מסר חד וברור של אהבה וגאווה ללאום שלה עם היכולת לקבל את האחר, להכיל אותו ולמזג בין התרבויות בלי לגרוע מאף אחת מהן.היא ערבייה מוסלמית בהוויתה ויחד עם זאת ישראלית ציונית גאה. אין פה שום סתירה בין הזהויות. יש פה מיזוג מרהיב של שתי תרבויות יפות והבסיס הוא אהבה לשתיהן.העולם המערבי בכלל והחברה הישראלית בפרט צריכה ללמוד לאזן בין חמלה לכוח.אנחנו חייבים מצד אחד לאמץ לחיקינו את האנשים המדהימים האלו ולעזור להם להתמודד עם הקשיים הנוראיים שהם עוברים בשל היותם פורצי דרךומהצד השני אנחנו חייבים להראות אפס סובלנות לטרור ותומכיו.חלק מהעיקרון של אפס סובלנות לטרור בין היתר כולל לא למסור שטחים לטרור ולא לאפשר לו להשליט את המשטרים האפלים והמדכאים שלהם שם. ישראל חייבת לשמור על גבולותיה הרמטיים ולחנך את האזרחים בגבולות האלו מהי אהבת חינם. אין לי ספק שהשינוי הזה יקרה. אי אפשר לדעת כמה זמן זה יקח, אבל זה בוודאות יקרה וזה יקרה הודות לאנשים כאלו.Sara ZoabiMuhammad Zoabi
Posted by Miri Lavi on Wednesday, June 24, 2015

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We had better hold fast to that hope, because there’s a whole lot that is very ugly facing us at the same time.  In recent weeks, we have seen an increase in the number of attacks in Judea and Samaria, and Jerusalem:

Arlene Kushner on Good News For Israel From Japan, Egypt and the US

From Arlene Kushner:
January 22, 2015

Seeking Sparks of Light

I’m going to do something different today: Start with good news items.  We need to hear that good news, with all the clouds hanging over us. 

The first is the matter of Israeli-Japanese relations, which have blossomed astonishingly in the past year.  This is true in the areas of diplomatic relations, industrial and scientific technology and trade.  On Sunday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived here for a three-day visit (which ultimately had to be cut short because of an ISIS hostage situation he had to contend with at home).  And it was on Sunday that Prime Minister Netanyahu, referring to the Islamization of Europe, spoke about the need to increase Asian markets. He spoke as well about the “historic opportunity” to join Israeli and Japanese capabilities for mutual benefit.

Raymond Stock: As Obama Dithers, Egypt Ramps Up Its Nuclear Options

The following by Raymond Stock is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

As Obama Dithers, Egypt Ramps Up Its Nuclear Options

by Raymond Stock
Fox News
January 9, 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3716/egypt-nuclear-program

Raymond Stock

After the fatally-flawed interim deal signed by the P5+1 in Geneva November 24 over Iran's nuclear program, America's slighted ally Egypt is now possibly pursuing its own nuclear option, amid fears of an atomic arms race between Tehran and its regional Sunni rivals in Cairo, Riyadh and beyond.

And no one seems to be paying attention.

Egypt's traditionally close relations with the U.S. have been severely strained since Minister of Defense General Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi ousted the narrowly-elected President Mohamed Morsi after more than thirty million marched against him and the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), to which he belongs.

Raymond Ibrahim: Egypt's Latest Fatwas from Salafis and Brotherhood

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Egypt's Latest Fatwas from Salafis and Brotherhood

by Raymond Ibrahim
Gatestone Institute
November 27, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3684/egypt-salafi-fatwas

Raymond Ibrahim

As the full ramification of the Muslim Brotherhood's year in power continues to be exposed, a new study by Al Azhar's Fatwa Committee dedicated to exploring the fatwas, or Islamic decrees, issued by the Brotherhood and Salafis -- the Islamists -- was recently published.

Al Azhar, in Cairo, is considered by many to be one of the oldest and most prestigious Islamic universities in the world. The study, written by Al Azhar's Dr. Sayed Zayed, and entitled (in translation), "The Misguided Fatwas of the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis," reveals a great deal about how Islamists view women.

The Egyptian newspaper Al Masry Al Youm summarized some of the Al Azhar study's main findings and assertions on November 15 in a article entitled (in translation), "Muslim Brotherhood fatwas: A woman swimming is an 'adulteress' and touching bananas is 'forbidden.'"

Jonathan Spyer: Sisi to Egyptian Islamists: Surrender or Die

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

Sisi to Egyptian Islamists: Surrender or Die

by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
October 26, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3655/sisi-egyptian-islamists

A suicide bombing this week at Egyptian Military Intelligence headquarters in the city of Ismailiya has been claimed by Ansar Beit al Maqdis. This organization is a Salafi Jihadi group with links to organizations of a similar kind in the Gaza Strip. Eleven people, including six soldiers were wounded in the bombing.

The Ismailiya attack is the latest episode in a growing Islamist insurgency against the de facto rule of General Abd al Fatah al-Sisi and the military in Egypt. It was of particular significance because the city lies just west of the Suez Canal, outside of the Sinai Peninsula. In the poorly policed area of northern Sinai, jihadi groups have been active since the military coup of July 3, and even before it.

But the Ismailiya bombing represents only the second time that Ansar Beit al Maqdis has managed to strike west of the canal. This attack may well be a sign of things to come.

Daniel Pipes: Global Ramifications of the Anti-Muslim Brotherhood Campaign in Egypt

The following by Daniel Pipes is reposted here with permission:

Global Ramifications of the Anti-Muslim Brotherhood Campaign in Egypt

by Daniel Pipes
November 1, 2013
Cross-posted from National Review Online, The Corner
http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2013/11/global-ramifications-of-the-anti-muslim

Since General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi overthrew Mohamed Morsi on July 3, the military-led government has been engaged in a ferocious crackdown of the Muslim Brotherhood and more broadly of Islamists (though some, like the Salafis of the Nour party, playing their hand carefully, have generally avoided trouble so far).
Not only has this assault been violent, with hundreds of deaths, and legal, with the Brotherhood banned and its top leadership jailed, but it has also been broadly cultural, economic, and religious. Even the mildest approbation of the Muslim Brotherhood can get one in trouble, with one's neighbors if not with the state. A very large swath of the population supports the crackdown and pushes for it. A few of the many, many examples:

After Syria and Iran, Is Russia's Putin Finding Another Middle East Ally in Egypt?

The following by Raymond Stock is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Obama vs. Putin -- is the Cold War About to Return to the Middle East?

by Raymond Stock
Fox News
October 28, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3654/obama-putin-cold-war

Raymond Stock

Sensing an historic opening, Russian President Vladimir Putin may soon be visiting Cairo in search of closer military ties and access to Egypt's warm water ports—according to an October 27 article in the Sunday Times of London.

Should he make that trip, Putin would likely get a warm, if not rapturous reception, both in government and on the street.

But if President Barack Obama should go there -- or anywhere in the Arab world-- now, the warmth would likely be of another kind entirely.

Obama's October 9 decision to freeze about a third of this year's $1.6 billion aid package to Egypt, and his coldly critical reaction to the popularly-demanded ouster of President Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood (MB) organization from power on July 3, have predictably angered most Egyptians.

Dr. Jacques Neriah: Sisi Fever: Will the General be the Next President of Egypt?

At the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, Dr. Jacques Neriah asks the question: Sisi Fever: Will the General be the Next President of Egypt?.

Here is a synopsis of Neriah's article:

• General Abd el Fattah el-Sisi, the man who led the overthrow of President Morsi on July 3, 2013, holds the combined titles of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, first Deputy of the Prime Minister, and Minister of Defense and Military Production. Unlike his predecessors, Sisi is waging a merciless campaign against jihadi fighters in Sinai Peninsula in order to restore Egypt's sovereignty there while drastically reducing Hamas' power in Gaza.

Still Unanswered: Is Egypt's Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi Just Another Islamist?

The following by Raymond Stock is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Islamist or Nationalist:
Who is Egypt's Mysterious New Pharaoh?

by Raymond Stock
Foreign Policy Research Institute
October 2013

Raymond Stock

Egypt's new de facto pharaoh, General Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, is a man of mystery. Is he an Islamist, or a nationalist? Is he a person of high principle, or a lowly opportunist? And in a land which has known five thousand years of mainly centralized, one-man rule, with limited experience of democracy, when have we seen his type before, and where will he lead the troubled, ancient nation now?

These questions are crucial to knowing how the U.S. should react to al-Sisi's removal of Egypt's first "freely elected" president, Mohamed Morsi on July 3 in answer to overwhelmingly massive street protests demanding that he do so, and to the ongoing bloody crackdown on Morsi's group, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), that began on August 14. Citing the ongoing, actually two-way violence in Egypt, President Barack Obama's administration has now suspended much of our annual $1.6 billion aid to the country, save for money needed to maintain security operations along the Israeli border in Sinai and to directly support the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.

JCPA: After the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Is Hamas in Gaza Next in Line?

Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah addresses the question After the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Is Hamas in Gaza Next in Line?

Here is the executive summary of his article:

• Egypt has finally decided to tackle the security threat from the Sinai Peninsula, a region that was nearly under the control of jihadist organizations with links to al-Qaeda and Hamas.
  
  
• The Egyptian army’s ultimate goal is clear: to recover Egypt’s sovereignty in Sinai. In order to succeed in its mission, the Egyptian supreme command understands that it must neutralize Hamas, which it sees as partly responsible for the security situation in Sinai during the last few years.

The "Arab Spring" Has Turned Into An "Israeli Spring" -- Now Go Solve The Middle East's Real Problems

In short, the more violent and chaotic the Middle East becomes, the more secure and exceptional Israel appears.
Victor Davis Hanson

Victor Davis Hanson writes that thanks to 'The Israeli Spring,' Israel’s enemies are doing more damage to each other than Israel ever could:

In terms of realpolitik, anti-Israeli authoritarians are fighting to the death against anti-Israeli insurgents and terrorists. Each is doing more damage to the other than Israel ever could — and in an unprecedented, grotesque fashion. Who now is gassing Arab innocents? Shooting Arab civilians in the streets? Rounding up and executing Arab civilians? Blowing up Arab houses? Answer: either Arab dictators or radical Islamists.

David P. Goldman: The World Learns to Manage Without the US

The following by David P. Goldman is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

World learns to manage without the US

by David P. Goldman
Asia Times
August 19, 2013http://www.meforum.org/3590/manage-without-us

David P. Goldman

The giant sucking sound you here, I said on August 15 on CNBC's The Kudlow Report, is the implosion of America's influence in the Middle East. Vladimir Putin's August 17 offer of Russian military assistance to the Egyptian army after US President Barack Obama cancelled joint exercises with the Egyptians denotes a post-Cold-War low point in America's standing. Along with Russia, Saudi Arabia and China are collaborating to contain the damage left by American blundering. They have being doing this quietly for more than a year.

The pipe-dream has popped of Egyptian democracy led by a Muslim Brotherhood weaned from its wicked past, but official Washington has not woken up. Egypt was on the verge of starvation when military pushed out Mohammed Morsi. Most of the Egyptian poor had been living on nothing but state-subsidized bread for months, and even bread supplies were at risk. The military brought in US$12 billion of aid from the Gulf States, enough to avert a humanitarian catastrophe. That's the reality. It's the one thing that Russia, Saudi Arabia and Israel agree about.

Egyptian Head of Muslim Brotherhood is Arrested -- Obedient New York Times Cries Foul

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

A Terror Leader Behind Bars in Egypt

by Raymond Ibrahim
FrontPageMagazine.com
August 20, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3589/muhammad-badie-egypt

Raymond Ibrahim

The supreme leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, the head of the Islamist snake, Muhammad Badie—who had slipped security forces by traveling in and out of the Brotherhood torture camps (known as "peaceful sits ins" by the mainstream media")—has finally been arrested in Egypt and is awaiting trial. Not only was he the leader of the Brotherhood, but, according to Brotherhood members themselves, he was giving orders to his underling, Muhammad Morsi, the now ousted Egyptian president.

Among other serious accusations, Badie is being charged with inciting widespread terrorism and murder and playing a key role in the current violence and unrest in Egypt—also known as "the jihad"—which has led to the destruction of some 80 Christian churches and monasteries, the violent slaughters of Egyptian police, and any number of other criminal activities.

If Badie, as a Brotherhood member on live TV slipped into saying, used to order president Morsi around, surely his authority over the average Brotherhood member—the very fellows now burning and slaughtering—was ironclad.

The Bloody "Arab Spring" in Egypt and How Obama Brought Us To This Point

The following by Raymond Stock is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Morsi detained, bloodbath in Egypt
Whatever happened to the Arab Spring?

by Raymond Stock
Fox News
August 15, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3588/morsi-detained-bloodbath-egypt

Raymond Stock

As Egypt explodes in what could be civil war, with a reported death toll of at least 628 dead and rising in clashes between security forces and Islamists that began August 14, many are wondering, whatever happened to the Arab Spring? That is, to the wave of popular uprisings against the long-lasting dictatorships of the Middle East and North Africa that began nearly three years ago in Tunisia, and brought the promise of democracy to the region at last?

And what should the U.S. do now that the Muslim Brotherhood--President Obama's chosen horse in the race for control of the largest Arab state and our most important Arab ally—has apparently lost?

To answer the first question, the Arab Spring never happened as advertised. Rather than a series of straightforward, largely peaceful popular risings led by social-media savvy youth that swept decades-old repressive regimes into the dustbin of history, as first portrayed by the media, something else occurred.

Mideast Media Sampler 8/19/13: New York Times Blames Israel For Obama's Wavering on Egypt

by David Gerstman, contributing blogger at Legal Insurrection

The New York Times faults Israel for looking out for its own interests

It wasn’t just one article over the weekend. No fewer than four articles in the New York Times over the past few days have made the case that Israel values its security more than it does freedom for Egyptians. While any country would reasonably put the safety of its own citizens ahead of other concerns, the New York Times makes it appear unseemly. At a time when the United States is uncertain what approach to take, the reports present a selfish Israel attempting to impose its preferences on those who are struggling to do the right thing.

Israel Escalating Efforts re Egypt, unlike Obama, does not have "any illusions" about democracy in Egypt http://t.co/MpWGUOJcXj
— David D. Kirkpatrick (@ddknyt) August 19, 2013

Raymond Ibrahim on Mubarak's Muslim Brotherhood Prophecy

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Mubarak's Muslim Brotherhood Prophecy

by Raymond Ibrahim
Gatestone Institute
August 15, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3586/mubarak-muslim-brotherhood

Raymond Ibrahim

In a video of Hosni Mubarak when he was still Egypt's president, the strategies of which he accuses the Muslim Brotherhood have come to pass. What follows are Mubarak's words from a conference in Egypt (date unknown; author's translation):

So they [Brotherhood and affiliates] took advantage of the economic situation by handing out money, to one man 100 Egyptian pounds, or about $30 dollars, [saying,] "Here take this bag of glycerin and throw it here," or do this or that—to create a state of instability in Egypt. And these groups—don't ever believe that they want democracy or anything like that. They are exploiting democracy in order to eliminate democracy. And if they ever do govern, it will be an ugly dictatorship. ….

Arlene Kushner on Abbas and Palestinian Arabs Looking For Excuse To Backtrack On Peace Talks

From Arlene Kushner:
August 19, 2013

Ironies

Right now we are encountering ironies in a variety of situations, both predictable and unexpected. 

Among the predictable we have the behavior of the Palestinian Authority/PLO.  Once negotiations, which were supposed to be conducted under cover of a media blackout, started, I guessed that we'd be hearing from the Palestinian Arabs before long.  It took about 24 hours before Abbas announced at a press conference with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon in Ramallah that the first session had addressed all key issues, including Jerusalem, refugees, borders, settlements, security and prisoners. 

That was quick. It seems rather surprising that all these issues could have been addressed in just one session. But never mind.  The Palestinian Arabs were off to a start, with regard to talking publicly about the talks.  This is their style:  Not quiet, steady sustentative negotiations, but negotiations via public opinion.

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Daniel Pipes: Evidence that Morsi Actually Lost the Egyptian Presidency

The following by Daniel Pipes is reposted here with permission:

Evidence that Morsi Actually Lost the Egyptian Presidency

by Daniel Pipes
August 18, 2013
Cross-posted from National Review Online, The Corner

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2013/08/evidence-that-morsi-actually-lost-the-egyptian

Just days after his apparent victory, Cynthia Farahat and I expressed our skepticism about the validity of these election returns:

SCAF exploits the Muslim Brotherhood and other proxies as its civilian fronts, a role they are happy to play, by permitting Islamists to garner an outsized percentage of the parliamentary vote, then to win the presidency. During the suspicious week-long delay before the presidential votes were announced, SCAF met with the Muslim Brotherhood's real leader, Khairat El-Shater, and reached a deal whereby Morsi became president but SCAF still governs.

Earlier, we had doubted two earlier rounds of elections (see "Egypt's Sham Election" and "Don't Ignore Electoral Fraud in Egypt.")

Though few analysts have embraced this version, there have been recent hints of it:

Arlene Kushner on How The West Mistakenly Fuels The Violence In Egypt by Backing Muslim Brotherhood

From Arlene Kushner:
August 15, 2013

Egypt

I tabled discussion about Egypt for some days, as I considered the release of terrorists from Israeli prison and related events here.  And in the course of those days, the situation in Egypt has escalated -- in some ways, inevitably, in some ways not.

The military regime of General al-Sisi had been threatening to take out encampments of Muslim Brotherhood resistance, if the people demonstrating for the return of Morsi did not disband.  Finally, Sisi acted.  As I write, some 500 people have died and the Islamists are not pulling back but rather responding with violence.

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