Arlene Kushner: On The UN -- After Failing in Syria, It Will Guarantee Success in Gaza!

From Arlene Kushner:
September 17, 2014

Surreal

Much of what goes on in the world these days has a surreal quality. But here’s a case that is sort of emblematic of a host of situations:

“Syrian rebels linked to Al-Qaeda have seized UN weapons, uniforms and vehicles from peacekeepers in the Golan and set up a ‘safe zone’ to wage attacks, the Syrian ambassador said Tuesday.

“The United Nations on Monday was forced to pull back hundreds of peacekeepers to the Israeli-occupied sector of the Golan (sic) after Syrian rebels advanced on their positions.

What is Israel Doing to Respond To The Al Qaeda Threat From Syria?

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

A Most Discreet Israeli Intervention in Syria

by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
May 29, 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3835/a-most-discreet-israeli-intervention-in-syria

Since the outbreak of the civil war in Syria in 2011, Israeli officials have observed events to the north with caution and concern. The concern has derived from the presence of anti-Israel paramilitary and terrorist elements on both sides of the fighting lines in Syria.

The caution, meanwhile, relates to the very deep aversion felt in the Israeli system toward the possibility of Israel's being sucked in to the morass of the Syrian war. Israel's Lebanon experience has left a deep institutional memory warning against overly ambitious incursions into the affairs of neighboring states.

Nevertheless, evidence is emerging of an increasing, though still modest Israeli involvement in events beyond the separation of forces line on the Golan Heights.

Jonathan Spyer: Behind the Lines: Israel-Syria Border Escalation

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Behind the Lines: Israel-Syria Border Escalation

by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
March 21, 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3800/behind-the-lines-israel-syria-border-escalation

Jonathan Spyer

This week's events on the Israel-Syrian border are testimony to the extent to which the effective disintegration of the Syrian state is producing a new security reality in the North.

Once, Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime sought to conduct its business via Israel's border with Lebanon. The Syrians would seek to place pressure on Israel by supporting paramilitary proxies in Lebanon, which would launch attacks on Israeli forces and communities.

The precise reversal of this situation now appears to be the reality.At the same time, the direct Syria-Israel line would be kept silent, out of fear of Israeli retribution.

On the assumption of Hezbollah responsibility for the attacks, which at present appears the most likely explanation, the movement is using the Syria-Israel border as a site for attacks on Israeli forces.

Jonathan Spyer: Do 'Syria,' 'Iraq' and 'Lebanon' Still Exist?

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission:

Do 'Syria,' 'Iraq' and 'Lebanon' Still Exist?

 

by Jonathan Spyer
The Tower
February 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3751/syria-iraq-lebanon-nation-states

Jonathan Spyer

For almost a century, the Middle East has been defined by the nation-states that emerged following the Allied victory in World War I and the end of the colonial era. Since then, strategic analyses of the region have concentrated on the relations between these states, and diplomatic efforts have generally attempted to maintain their stability and the integrity of their borders. As a result, the current map of the Middle East has remained largely unchanged over more than nine decades.

But this is no longer the case. The old maps no longer reflect the reality on the ground, and the region is now defined not by rivalry between nation-states, but by sectarian divisions that are spilling across the old borders and rendering them irrelevant. Today, there is a single sectarian war underway across the Middle East, one that threatens to engulf the entire region.

Arlene Kushner on the Never-ending Farce of Obama's Policy in Syria

From Arlene Kushner:
February 16, 2014

Dealing with Farce

Sometimes, my friends, I take a look at one or another political/diplomatic situation, and I think, “This is just sooo outrageous.  So counter-intuitive in terms of how things ‘should’ be. How do I deal with it?”  Actually, on occasion it occurs to me that if a satirical film were made incorporating some of the events we are witnessing, critics would pan it as too far-fetched.  Such is the world about which I try, however humbly, to provide some perspective. 

Today I want to begin with the horrors to our north in Syria, where, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights [an anti-Assad group], the death toll from the civil war has now exceeded 140,000, including more than 7,500 children and over 5,000 women.

Read: Syria's death toll now exceeds 140,000

Why Is an Islamic Cleric Thanking Obama For Waging "Jihad for Allah"?

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Top Islamic Leader Calls on U.S. to Wage 'Jihad for Allah'

by Raymond Ibrahim
FrontPageMagazine.com
January 31, 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3734/qaradawi-us-jihad

Raymond Ibrahim

A video of Dr. Yusuf al-Qaradawi calling on the U.S. government to wage jihad for Allah in Syria, is currently making the rounds on Arabic media and Facebook, to mockery and dismay.

In the recorded speech, Qaradawi—one of the most influential Islamic clerics in the world, spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, author of over 100 books on Muslim doctrine, and head of the International Union of Muslim Scholars—sarcastically thanks the U.S. for supporting the "freedom fighters" in Syria, adding that "Allah willing, your [U.S.] aid will increase."

Yusuf al-Qaradawi (c) draped in a "Free Syria" flag. (Image source: Wikimedia Commons)

Then, while working himself up because the U.S is only providing weapons to the jihadis in Syria, as opposed to directly intervening, Qaradawi declares in frustration: "We want America to take a manly stand—a stand for Allah!"

Another Red Line For Obama? -- Syria Shipped Out Less Than 5% of Chemical Weapons

The Israel Project notes that Syria has shipped out less than 5% of its chemical weapons:

Syria retains the vast majority of its chemical arsenal, can likely weaponize biological agents, and has restored the pace of its missile production to pre-war levels, according to a stream of analysis and reporting published on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Jonathan Spyer: The Syrian Peace Process: An Exercise in Futility

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

The Syrian Peace Process: An Exercise in Futility

by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
January 24, 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3727/syrian-peace-process

The international conference that convened this week in the Swiss town of Montreux in an attempt to find a way toward resolving the war in Syria is one of the more strange international gatherings of recent years.

The aims of the combatant sides in Syria remain entirely irreconcilable.

Neither the Assad regime nor the rebellion against it is strong enough to strike a decisive blow against its opponent.

Neither side is sufficiently weak to feel compelled to accept whatever outcome its enemy wishes to impose on it.

In such a situation, diplomacy becomes reduced to the rituals of protocol.

Form replaces content. And the purpose of bringing the sides together becomes unclear.

Does Kerry Really Think Assad Ouster Would Assure Safety of Syrian Christians and Minorities?

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Kerry Boasts of 'Pluralistic' Syria Once Assad Gone

by Raymond Ibrahim
January 23, 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3725/pluralistic-syria

Raymond Ibrahim

U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, was recently interviewed about Syria. While many of his assertions can be debated, one especially requires a response. Throughout the interview, he repeatedly insisted that, if Bashar Assad would only leave power, everything would go well — especially for all of Syria's minorities.

In his words: "I believe that a peace can protect all of the minorities: Druze, Christian, Ismailis, Alawites — all of them can be protected, and you can have a pluralistic Syria, in which minority rights of all people are protected."

Elsewhere in the interview, Kerry declared that "The world would protect the Alawites, Druze, Christians, and all minorities in Syria after the ousting of Assad."

The problem here is that we have precedent — exact precedent. We've seen this paradigm before and know precisely what happens once strongman dictators like Assad are gone.

As demonstrated in this article, in all Muslim nations where the U.S. has intervened to help topple dictators and bring democracy, it is precisely the minorities who suffer first. And neither the U.S. nor "the world" do much about it.

Daniel Pipes: Yes, Support the Syrian Rebels

The following by Daniel Pipes is reposted here with permission:

Yes, Support the Syrian Rebels

by Daniel Pipes
December 19, 2013
Cross-posted from National Review Online, The Corner

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2013/12/yes-support-the-syrian-rebels

In April 2013, I published an article with the slightly inaccurate title, "Support Assad." Better would have been "Support Whichever Side Is Losing in the Syrian Civil War." Back then, it seemed that the regime of Bashar al-Assad was doomed; but already a month later, that was no longer the case and eight months on, a consensus has emerged that Assad is slowly winning.

Daniel Pipes: Saudis Bristle at Obama's Outreach to Iran

The following by Daniel Pipes is reposted here with permission:

Saudis Bristle at Obama's Outreach to Iran

by Daniel Pipes
The Washington Times
December 3, 2013

http://www.danielpipes.org/13720/saudis-iran-obama

The "Joint Plan of Action" signed with Iran by the so-called P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K., and the U.S.) on Nov. 24 in Geneva caused Shiite Arabs to celebrate, Sunni Arabs to worry, and Saudis to panic. The Saudi response will have far-reaching and unpredictable consequences.

Jubilant crowds welcomed the Iranian negotiator home from Geneva.

As Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, brought home a deal worth about US$23 billion to Iran,Arab Shiites fell into step with Tehran. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of Iraq expressed his "full support for this step." President Bashar al-Assad of Syria welcomed the agreement as "the best path for securing peace and stability." Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri of Lebanon called it the "deal of the century." And Hezbollah considered the agreement a "great victory for Iran."

Jonathan Spyer: Is the US Changing Sides in the Regional Conflict Between Iran and Its Enemies?

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

Is the US Changing Sides in the Regional Conflict Between Iran and Its Enemies?

by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
November 30, 2013

http://www.meforum.org/3686/us-iran-switch

A report by respected Washington-based journalist Hussein Abdul Hussein in the Kuwaiti Al-Rai newspaper this week revealed details of an indirect US channel with Hezbollah.

The report comes, of course, close on the heels of the interim agreement concluded in Geneva between the P5 + 1 world powers and Iran, allowing the latter to continue to enrich uranium.

News items are also surfacing suggesting a stark split between the US and Saudi Arabia over regional policy in general, and policy toward Syria in particular. Saudi officials are going on the record expressing their alarm at the direction of American policy.

Happily stirring the pot, some Iran-associated outlets have suggested that Washington is actively seeking to rein in Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who favors a hardline against Iranian interference in the region.

Meanwhile, agreement has now been reached over the long-postponed "Geneva 2" conference, to discuss the war in Syria.

The conference will go ahead because US-backed Syrian opposition representatives abandoned their demand that President Bashar Assad could have no part in any transitional phase of government in the country.

What does all this add up to? There are an increasing number of voices which perceive a shape behind all these details: Namely, an effort by the current US administration to turn the Iranian regime from an adversary into a partner. The method: Acceding, in part or whole, to key Iranian demands.

Let's take a look at each item in more detail.

Raymond Ibrahim: 'Largest Massacre of Christians in Syria' Ignored

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

'Largest Massacre of Christians in Syria' Ignored

by Raymond Ibrahim
November 21, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3676/syria-massacre-christians

Raymond Ibrahim

One of the worst Christian massacres—complete with mass graves, tortured-to-death women and children, and destroyed churches—recently took place in Syria, at the hands of the U.S.-supported jihadi "rebels"; and the U.S. government and its "mainstream media" mouthpiece are, as usual, silent (that is, when not actively trying to minimize matters).

The massacre took place in Sadad, an ancient Syriac Orthodox Christian habitation, so old as to bementioned in the Old Testament. Most of the region's inhabitants are poor, as Sadad is situated in the remote desert between Homs and Damascus (desert regions, till now, apparently the only places Syria's Christians could feel secure; 600 Christian families had earlier fled there for sanctuary from the jihad, only to be followed by it).

Assad Ends 2013 Much Better Than When He Started

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

With Help From Tehran and Moscow, and Inaction by the U.S., Assad Is Poised To Stay

by Jonathan Spyer
Tablet Magazine
November 13, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3670/syria-assad-iran-russia

As the Syrian civil war grinds on toward its fourth year, no end appears in sight. It is the greatest disaster in the Levant in a generation: More than 115,000 people have died. Around 2 million refugees have departed the country—for Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and beyond—while untold more who have left their homes remain in Syria, seeking with increasing desperation to put themselves and their families out of reach of the guns.

But while the war appears far from ending, its direction and likely outcome have shifted significantly in the past year.

The Failure To Topple Syria's Assad and the Decline of US Power in the Middle East

The following by Eyal Zisser is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

The Failure of U.S. Policy toward Damascus

by Eyal Zisser
Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2013, pp. 59-65 (view PDF)

The failure of the Bush and the Obama administrations to topple Syria's president Bashar al-Assad goes a long way to explaining Washington's declining Middle Eastern position. United by a distinct lack of vision, as opposed to hopes and wishful thinking, as well as determination and a coherent plan of action, these otherwise very different administrations helped erode America's stature in the region. Widely seen as a declining superpower that has lost belief in itself and its leading role in the world, Washington earns neither fear nor respect in the Middle East.

Don't Forget About Syria's Alliance With North Korea

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

Assad's North Korean Connection

by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
November 1, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3658/assad-north-korea

Reports have emerged this week indicating the presence of North Korean military personnel in Syria. They note that 15 North Korean helicopter pilots are operating on behalf of the Assad regime within the country.

The reports have been validated by the pro-rebel but usually reliable Syrian Observatory for Human Rights . They are also not the first evidence that Pyongyang is actively involved on the ground in the Assad regime's war effort.

Is Partition the Best Long-Term Solution to the Violence in Syria?

The following by Gary C. Gambill is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

Partitioning Syria

by Gary C. Gambill

Foreign Policy Research Institute
October 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3650/partitioning-syria

Gary C. Gambill

After two-and-a-half years of steadily metastasizing violence in Syria, the harsh reality is that the country isn't going to become a stable, unified state again in the foreseeable future, let alone a remotely democratic one. It may be time to start thinking about alternatives.

Syria has already fragmented into increasingly well-defined enclaves. A multiplicity of Sunni Arab rebels control large swaths of the north and east, while the regime is dominant in the capital and major cities, the largely non-Sunni coastal provinces, and a corridor connecting them. Kurds control small border areas in the far northeast. The Druze, heavily concentrated in southwest Syria, have formed militias to fend off rebel incursions, while tending otherwise toward neutrality.

Although the rebels are likely to eventually bring down the minoritarian regime of President Bashar Assad, as Michael O'Hanlon helpfully analogizes, the fall of Damascus will "no more end the war in Syria than the overthrow of Saddam in 2003 brought stability to Iraq." Pro-regime forces will fall back toward the coast, Kurds and Druze will fortify their enclaves, and the Sunni rebels will fight each other to reclaim what's left of the Syrian capital.

Mideast Media Sampler 10/24/13: Obama On Syria -- Indecisive and Disinterested

by David Gerstman, contributing blogger at Legal Insurrection

When Legalisms Become an Excuse for Inaction

Obama talks with, from left, Chief of Staff Denis McDonough, Gene Sperling,
 National Economic Council Director, and Miguel Rodriguez, Director of
Legislative Affairs, in the Oval Office on 8 May 2013. Credit: Wiki Commons

Yesterday’s New York Times featured an article Obama’s Uncertain Path Amid Syria Bloodshed that is probably one of the most devastating indictments of the President’s Syria policy published. I don’t think that the reporters set out to critique the President and the tone of the article was always respectful.

Read it and weep. Obama's Syria policy as told by the NYT: http://t.co/30uZYqWZuv

— michaeldweiss (@michaeldweiss) October 23, 2013

Still there are two description that really stuck out. The first was a general critique.

Abbas Edges Closer To Syria's Assad -- Does Not Bode Well For Kerry's Middle East Peace Talks

Khaled Abu Toameh writes that Abbas, Hamas, Flirting With Syria's Assad. However, while Hamas -- which has seen its once promising relationship with Egypt on the skids -- has been slow to get back into Assad's good graces, Abbas has been more successful.

The reasons for making up with Syria extend beyond mere political gain:

Despite Kerry's Glowing Praise of Assad, Full Removal of Syria's Chemical Weapons Is Unlikely

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Despite Nobel Prize, Full Removal of Syria's Chemical Weapons Unlikely

by Jonathan Spyer
PJ Media
October 16, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3647/syria-chemical-weapons-removal

The first reports emerging from the effort to relieve the Assad regime of its chemical weapons capacity suggest that the regime is cooperating with the inspectors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). The latter organization has been tasked by the United Nations with overseeing the process of destroying Assad's CW capability.

The process is set to involve two distinct stages. In the first and more straightforward phase, Syria's ability to produce chemical weapons will be removed. In the second phase, Syria's actual stockpiles of chemical weaponry are to be destroyed. The first phase of the mission is intended to be completed by November 1. The second phase is likely to take a lot longer.

The OPCW inspectors face a task of unparalleled complexity. Never before has a country in the midst of civil war offered up its chemical weapons capacity to international review and destruction. It is not at all clear that the inspectors will succeed.