In Egypt, Morsi And The Muslim Brotherhood Find The Arab Spring May Not Be Dead Yet

Zvi Mazel, a former Israeli ambassador to Romania, Sweden and Egypt, writes that despite dispatching their opposition in the military, Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood faces unexpected opposition from the media:

Having conquered parliament, the constituent assembly and the presidency in less than a year, the Muslim Brotherhood thought Egypt was theirs.

They may have been a little hasty. Forces long kept dormant by the Hosni Mubarak regime are waking up.

It Is Obama, Not Israeli Settlements, That Foments Instability In The Middle East

Barry Rubin addresses The Powerlessness Excuse: Debunking the Claim that Obama Could Not Have Affected the “Arab Spring” and Islamist Takeovers.

He notes tangible steps taken by Obama that strengthened the hands of the more radical forces in Egypt.

• In his Cairo speech, Obama invited the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood to sit in the front row -- thus showing he sided with the Islamist opposition.

Egypt Continues To Make Life Difficult For Jews Both Inside And Outside Of Egypt

While the lines of communication between Egypt and Israel appear to remain open, the ties between Egypt and Jews remain problematic.

Remember the lulav scare last year: Egypt bans lulav exports to Israel, Diaspora:

Egypt has banned the export of palm fronds to Israel and Jewish communities abroad, leading to fears of a lulav shortage for the Sukkot holiday.

Israel had previously imported about 700,000 palm fronds a year in the run-up to Sukkot, which is about 40 percent of the annual demand, Haaretz reported. Another 700,000 of the 2 million lulavs used in Diaspora Jewish communities also come from Egypt.

Then in January of this year, it was reported that Egypt To Bar Jews From Visiting Grave Site Of Abu Hatzeira:

Raymond Ibrahim: Egypt: Kill a Christian, Collect a Reward

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with permission:

Egypt: Kill a Christian, Collect a Reward

by Raymond Ibrahim
Gatestone Institute
September 4, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3333/egypt-kill-christian-reward

Recently an Egyptian Muslim posted a YouTube videotape of himself cursing Islam, its holy book, the Koran, tearing the latter to pieces and throwing it in the garbage. Excerpts of what he said follow:

There it is, Allah's book, this is the basic catastrophe. I don't know what day it is of this disgusting month of Ramadan! You are making the tearing of the Quran such a big and dangerous thing... it is instinctive to tear this book, those sons of [profanity] think they can threaten me and challenge me to tear the Quran, but I want to prove to them that they are nothing and what is the big deal in tearing this book!! There it is [he starts tearing the Quran] in the trash. Are you feeling better now! You cannot touch a hair on my head! We keep blaming Hamas and Gaza, but it is not them, it is this son of [profanity] book that I am stepping on right now. That book is the source of all evil and the real catastrophe. There is nothing new here, it is not Omar Abdel Rahman, Abbud or all the others; it is this garbage that is causing us to run in a demonic never-ending circle that will never end.

While this latest Koran desecration is a reminder that there are everyday Egyptians who are sick of the Talibanization of Egypt, a recent talk show on Al Hafiz channel concerning this incident is an indicator of what is in store for them.

The Middle East Media Sampler 9/7/2012 Democratic Platform Reflects Obama's True Jerusalem Policy

From DG:

1) Platform diving

Ed Lasky writes that President Obama knew that there was no mention of Jerusalem and still approved the publication of the platform like that.

It was only when blowback occurred that could hurt his political prospects that he stepped forward and inserted the language to assuage critics. 

Furthermore Lasky writes (in agreement with what Shmuel Rosner wrote) that it was likely Robert Wexler who contributed the language about the Middle East.

Rick Richman showed that the administration has a history with Jerusalem:

Could The Egyptian Military Be On The Verge Of Ousting The Muslim Brotherhood?

The enormous success of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is still fresh in everyone's minds. After all, they came from out of nowhere to leapfrog over what appeared to be huge crowds of Egyptians demanding democracy.

That was last year.

Now, the Muslim Brotherhood is firmly ensconced in power.
But maybe not.

A Review Of 60 Years Of Military Rule In Egypt. Now What?

The following by Daniel Pipes is reposted here with permission:

Egypt's Sixty Years of Misery

by Daniel Pipes
National Review Online
July 24, 2012

http://www.danielpipes.org/11692/egypt-misery

This week marks 60 years since Egypt's self-proclaimed Free Officers overthrew the constitutional monarchy of King Farouq – and the first anniversary when one can imagine the demise of the military despotism that so long has wounded the country. Sadly, its most likely replacement will bring on an even worse rule.

Barry Rubin: News Flash: A First Look at Egypt’s New Constitution Shows a Careful Ambiguity On Islamic Rule

News Flash: A First Look at Egypt’s New Constitution Shows a Careful Ambiguity On Islamic Rule

by Barry Rubin

Although it isn’t official, the first two articles of Egypt’s new Constitution have been reportedly drafted by the committee of parliamentarians charged with that task. Article 1 defines Egypt as part of the Arab and Muslim nation, a compromise between acceptance of the country as a normal nation-state and its identity as either a purely Arab nationalist or Islamist entity.

Similarly, Article 2, according to Mohamed Emara, head of the committee responsible for drafting this section, says:

“Islam is the religion of the state, and Arabic is its official language, and the principles of Islamic Sharia are the main source for legislation. Christians and Jews shall resort to legislation derived from their own religions.”

Barry Rubin: Egypt: If There’s No Danger of Radicalism and Islamism Why Can’t You Provide Evidence?

Egypt: If There’s No Danger of Radicalism and Islamism Why Can’t You Provide Evidence?

by Barry Rubin

Consider one fact that demolishes the apparatus of nonsense about moderate Islamists and the credibility of those claiming there is nothing to worry about. These are the same people who have been declaring for more than a year that the Muslim Brotherhood is moderate. Yet now the Brotherhood's presidential campaign has shown it to be extraordinarily radical, openly demanding a caliphate and Egypt being a Sharia state.

Suddenly the subject is changed. Nobody acknowledges that they were wrong about the Brotherhood. They focus now on a different candidate who we are told is the true moderate Islamist, as if their previous favorite "moderate Islamist" movement has now thrown off its camouflage.

Raymond Ibrahim: Voting in Egypt as 'Holy War'--Its Only Value, to Empower Sharia

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted with permission:

Voting in Egypt as 'Holy War'
Its Only Value, to Empower Sharia

by Raymond Ibrahim
Gatestone Institute
May 22, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3248/voting-in-egypt

Despite the fact that some in the West portray Islam and democracy as being perfectly compatible, evidence continues to emerge that, for many countries in the Middle East, democracy and elections are various means to one end: the establishment of a decidedly undemocratic form of law—Islamic, or Sharia Law.

Thus, Egyptian cleric Dr. Talat Zahran proclaimed that it is "obligatory to cheat at elections, a beautiful thing," his logic being that voting is a tool, an instrument, the only value of which is to empower Sharia. Likewise, Hazim Shuman, a cleric who has his own TV program, issued a fatwa likening the voting for Islamist candidates as a "jihad," adding that paradise awaits whoever is "martyred" during the electoral campaign.

Barry Rubin: Egypt’s Elections: Titanic of Western Interests, Meet Iceberg of Islamist Revolutionary Zeal

Egypt’s Elections: Titanic of Western Interests, Meet Iceberg of Islamist Revolutionary Zeal

by Barry Rubin

Egypt will hold its presidential election May 23-24 with a possible run-off on June 16-17. It is impossible at this point to predict what’s going to happen but I can make a good guess. Eight weeks from now Egypt will be led by either a radical anti-American Islamist who wants to wipe Israel off the map or by a radical anti-American nationalist who just hates Israel passionately.

Let’s review the background and then analyze the likely events to come.

Since Egypt’s revolution began a year ago five propositions have monopolized the Western debate and coverage, all of which were wrong:

• –That Egypt would become a real democratic state in which human rights and civil liberties would be respected.
  
  
• –That this state would be dominated by moderate and modernist secular groups.
  
  

Barry Rubin: How to Make the `Bad Guys’ into `Good Guys’ By Pretending They’re Moderate Guys

How to Make the `Bad Guys’ into `Good Guys’ By Pretending They’re Moderate Guys

By Barry Rubin

There are two types of revolutionary Islamists in the Middle East today: the Muslim Brotherhood and the “Salafists.” Of course, the Muslim Brotherhood is in fact a salafist group, in the sense that it wants to use Islam as it can be most strictly and repressively interpreted and create a dictatorship based on a radical interpretation of Sharia law.

And that is the first important point to understand. The difference between Brotherhood and “Salafists” is purely tactical. The Brotherhood has learned how to maneuver politically, an advance similar to what Lenin instituted for the Marxists of his day. You can’t just declare a revolution and change everything overnight.

No, the Communists argued a century ago and the Brotherhood advocates now, instead the road to victory is to create a disciplined movement, build a mass base, construct front groups, create (temporary) alliances that split your opponents, and march step by step to total power. .Just as Lenin planned to get the capitalists to sell him the rope with which to hang them, the Brotherhood plots to get the infidels to do.

Barry Rubin: Is Egypt about to Elect an Islamist President?

Is Egypt about to Elect an Islamist President?

By Barry Rubin

Registering to run for president of Egypt will begin March 10. The military moved it up from April 15 to show that it is handing over power to the civilians. As I’ve said before, I’ve never seen any evidence that the army is not going to turn over control of the country to a new, elected president. All of the mass media and political hysteria to the contrary, the generals don’t want to hold onto the government.

Has the Brotherhood’s success in parliamentary elections gone to its head? Has the weak international response to its ascendancy emboldened the Islamists to seek total power now rather than go slow and be patient? It’s starting to look that way.

The Muslim Brotherhood has announced once again that it will not run a candidate for president in the elections projected for June. “The Muslim Brotherhood will not support Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh or any candidate,” says Muhammad al-Badi, the leader of the Brotherhood.

Barry Rubin: Egypt's Parliament 75 percent Islamist; Egypt-Israel Peace Agreement is Dead Even if Treaty Still Exists

Egypt's Parliament 75 percent Islamist; Egypt-Israel Peace Agreement is Dead Even if Treaty Still Exists

By Barry Rubin

We’re starting to get a good picture of what the lower house of Egypt’s parliament will be like, though it will take another month to be certain. Close to 50 percent of the seats will be held by the Muslim Brotherhood. Another 25 percent will be held by the al-Nour party of Salafists. With 75 percent the two Islamist parties will be able to do as they please.

But, they—or at least the Brotherhood—are determined to be cautious. Note that there is a big difference between actually being moderate and simply being patient, advancing step by step toward radical goals. The Western media will report that the Brotherhood is indeed moderate. Actually, as I review coverage over the last year it is almost impossible to find even a single article in the mass media that reports any such evidence, much less analysis, despite the massive documentation available to the contrary .

The non-Islamist seats will be held by the Wafd, nine percent, and the Free Egyptians Party, another nine percent, with the rest spread among a dozen different parties, mainly liberal with a small number of leftists. The Wafd will be willing to make deals with the Islamists in order to obtain a share of power for itself. Only the Free Egyptians will oppose them with determination.

Barry Rubin: Silly Obama Rabbit, Tricks Are for Islamists

Silly Obama Rabbit, Tricks Are for Islamists

By Barry Rubin

It's the end of 2011 and also the end of the old order in the Middle East. It would be an exaggeration to say that it's the end of U.S. interests in the region but it sure looks like the beginning of the end for a lot of them. The problem isn't just Obama policy and the advance of revolutionary Islamism but the decline of the most basic logic and common sense in evaluating the world.

Here's an example of how the mass media, Western foreign policy establishment, and Obama Administration miss the most obvious possible points as the Muslim Brotherhood (and lots of other enemies) run rings around them.

Egyptian police and prosecutors raided the offices of 17 groups which are either “pro-democracy” movements or their Western funders. Two of the groups were the taxpayer-funded Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute. (Talk about ways to antagonize the United States!) The U.S. government was outraged and protested.

A number of people were quoted but not gave any clue to the real political significance of the event. They talked about how civil society groups played a central role in the revolution; how this is an attempt to stem protests.

The New York Times informs us: “The raids were a stark escalation in what has appeared to be a campaign by the country’s military rulers to rally support by playing to nationalist and anti-American sentiment here.” Talk about Western chauvinism!

Barry Rubin: The “Arab Spring” and Its Impact on Israel

The “Arab Spring” and Its Impact on Israel

This article was written for the European site, Crethi Plethi

The “Arab Spring” is the name given to the tumultuous political events of 2011. In three countries—Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia—the regimes that had been in power for between 40 and 60 years were overthrown. In Syria and Yemen the governments were seriously challenged and internal conflicts continue with the outcome not yet clear. And in Bahrain, a major challenge to the monarchy was put down by force.

What is the meaning of these events for the future of these countries and also to their relationship to Israel and that country’s security? This article addresses the shorter- and longer-term strategic and geopolitical implications of the “Arab Spring.”

In the three countries where power has changed hands—Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia—Islamists have emerged as powerful political forces. In Egypt, where elections are not yet completed, the Muslim Brotherhood received just under 40 percent of the vote and even more radical Salafists obtained about 20 percent. This means that Islamists will be the leading political parties in forming the parliament and in writing the country’s constitution.

What other forces exist? Only two: the army and the future president. The armed forces do not want political power but they do want to ensure their economic enterprises and wealth. The military junta, which still governs the country, is also concerned about preventing anarchy and maintaining U.S. aid. While asserting itself periodically to try to avoid extremism, the generals have backed down when challenged by the Brotherhood. Presumably, the junta will disband when a new president is elected, perhaps in the summer of 2013.

Who is a likely president? Only two potential candidates will have a chance. One of them is Amr Moussa, an Arab nationalist who has both a realistic and a demagogic side. The other is an Islamist backed by the Brotherhood, but that organization has not yet decided to push on that front and might make a deal with Moussa in order to have a strong ally against the military and also to avoid pushing itself too obviously forward.

Finally, a critical element is the failing Egyptian economy. The situation is so bad that the current prime minister cried at a press conference in discussing it. If a huge—and unsolvable--crisis emerges, the only way for a government to deal with it politically is to divert attention into an anti-Israel, anti-Western scapegoating.

Raymond Ibrahim: Lessons on the Long Road to Hijab

Lessons on the Long Road to Hijab

by Raymond Ibrahim
Jihad Watch
December 28, 2011

This caricature, which first appeared on CagleCartoons.com, has been making the rounds on the Arabic blogosphere, and points to how democratic elections are serving to Islamize Egypt: average women enter the ballot box—"overseen" by the Muslim Brotherhood—only to emerge thoroughly veiled, thoroughly Islamized.

Barry Rubin: Egypt: As Grim Islamists March Toward Power, The Naïve Dance in Tahrir Square

Egypt: As Grim Islamists March Toward Power, The Naïve Dance in Tahrir Square

Germany was having trouble,
What a sad, sad story.
Needed a new leader
To restore its former glory.
Where, oh, where was he,
Who could that man be?
We looked around,
And then we found,
The man for you and me,
And now its...
--The Producers

By Barry Rubin

Almost 80 percent of Egyptian Muslims in nine provinces voted for radical Islamist parties in the second round of Egypt’s election. Roughly 5 percent voted for a moderate Islamic party and about 15 percent voted for liberal parties.

That says it all. In the overall vote—that is, including the Christian voters–70 percent supported radical Islamists, 47 percent (4 million) the Muslim Brotherhood (86 of 180 available seats so far; they might win more) and 32 percent for the Salafists (3.2 million, the Washington Post seriously underestimated their votes).

The liberal (but not overtly anti-Islamist) Wafd won 1 million; the liberal Egyptian Bloc won almost 800,000, and the moderate Islamic, Wasat Party, 370,000.

Incidentally, the vice-chairman of the Wafd said in an interview last July that the U.S. government carried out the September 11 attacks and Ann Frank’s diary was a fake. At least he doesn’t like Iran, though he thinks it is right about the Holocaust being phony. And he’s the liberal.

Barry Rubin: Make Way for the Muslim Brotherhood International!

The following by Barry Rubin is reposted with permission

Make Way for the Muslim Brotherhood International!

By Barry Rubin

“Arise, you prisoners of starvation!
Arise, you wretched of the earth!
For justice thunders condemnation:
A better world's in birth!”

So begins the Internationale, the theme song of Communism. So far it is perfectly acceptable for Islamists though some later verses make clear the Marxist movement’s secularism: “No savior from on high delivers.”

The First Internationale of radical workers’ movements was founded in 1864; the Second, of Socialist parties, in 1889; the Third International, of Communist parties, in 1919; and the Fourth Internationale, of Trotskyist parties, in 1938.

And now, though nobody will use this terminology, it’s time for the Fifth Internationale, that of the Muslim Brotherhoods.

Barry Rubin: Egypt: We’ve Heard What the Majority Thinks

Egypt: We’ve Heard What the Majority Thinks

BIALYSTOCK: “Maybe it’s not true!”
BLOOM: (mumbling): “No way out. No way out.”
BIALYSTOCK: “Why don’t we go over to the theatre and see what’s really happening? After all, we’ve only heard from a small portion of the audience. Let’s hear what the majority thinks.”
BLOOM (in a trance): “The majority. The majority. Yes. Let’s hear from the majority.”
–“The Producers” (1968)

“What should be clear to the Brotherhood…is that most Egyptians have no interest in swapping Mubarak’s secular dictatorship for a religious one.
–New York Times editorial, December 2011

By Barry Rubin

Let’s figure out what the voting in Egypt means in concrete terms. What we have so far are these results in one-third–the most liberal one-third!) of Egypt:

Muslim Brotherhood 37 percent

Al-Nour (Salafist) 25 percent

Egyptian bloc (mainly the Free Egyptian party) 14 percent

Wafd (liberal but willing to work with Brotherhood) 8 percent

Al-Wast (Moderate Muslim party) 4 percent

The remaining votes went to small parties. There is a remarkable set of graphs available analyzing the first round of the election.

Most important, 112 seats in the lower house of parliament were distributed, between 20 and 25 percent of the total, along the following lines:

Muslim Brotherhood 46

Al-Nour (Salafist) 28

Egyptian bloc 16

Wafd 8

al-Wasat 5

Other 9

Total 112