Egypt Insulted By Israeli Children Building Temple Out Of Sand

Perhaps you remember the video of Safwat Higazi, supporter of president Mohamed Morsi, campaigning for his friend during the weeks leading up to the election. Higazi's medieval ranting about creating the capital of a united Arab state in Jerusalem found a welcome audience in the equally crazed Egyptian crowd:

Barry Rubin: Egypt is a Volcano, The West Snoozes, But Israel Won’t Play the Role of Pompeii

Egypt is a Volcano, The West Snoozes, But Israel Won’t Play the Role of Pompeii

By Barry Rubin

“Interchangeable ever were the terms of abuse with which the aggressor discredits those about to be ravaged!”
–Malcolm Lowry, Under the Volcano

By Barry Rubin

Reality: Those who are, or will soon be, governing Egypt view themselves as being at war with Israel for all practical purposes. It matters relatively little that there is still a peace treaty. In Cairo, there are no thoughts of peace.

This is the second biggest disaster of the “Arab Spring.” The same applies to the Egyptian government’s attitude to the United States. That is the biggest disaster.

Missing Peace: Egyptian Crisis Aggravates

The following from Missing Peace is reposted with permission:

Egyptian Crisis Aggravates

Members of the parliament stand and pray during the first Egyptian parliament session after the revolution

With international attention now focused on Syria, certain underreported developments in Egypt should be cause for grave concern.

These developments have increased Israeli fears about the future of the Camp David peace accord and the stability in the region as a whole.

A recently published Missing Peace report dealt with the situation on the Egyptian border, where Israel is feverishly working on the construction of a border fence.

Barry Rubin: The “Arab Spring” and Its Impact on Israel

The “Arab Spring” and Its Impact on Israel

This article was written for the European site, Crethi Plethi

The “Arab Spring” is the name given to the tumultuous political events of 2011. In three countries—Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia—the regimes that had been in power for between 40 and 60 years were overthrown. In Syria and Yemen the governments were seriously challenged and internal conflicts continue with the outcome not yet clear. And in Bahrain, a major challenge to the monarchy was put down by force.

What is the meaning of these events for the future of these countries and also to their relationship to Israel and that country’s security? This article addresses the shorter- and longer-term strategic and geopolitical implications of the “Arab Spring.”

In the three countries where power has changed hands—Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia—Islamists have emerged as powerful political forces. In Egypt, where elections are not yet completed, the Muslim Brotherhood received just under 40 percent of the vote and even more radical Salafists obtained about 20 percent. This means that Islamists will be the leading political parties in forming the parliament and in writing the country’s constitution.

What other forces exist? Only two: the army and the future president. The armed forces do not want political power but they do want to ensure their economic enterprises and wealth. The military junta, which still governs the country, is also concerned about preventing anarchy and maintaining U.S. aid. While asserting itself periodically to try to avoid extremism, the generals have backed down when challenged by the Brotherhood. Presumably, the junta will disband when a new president is elected, perhaps in the summer of 2013.

Who is a likely president? Only two potential candidates will have a chance. One of them is Amr Moussa, an Arab nationalist who has both a realistic and a demagogic side. The other is an Islamist backed by the Brotherhood, but that organization has not yet decided to push on that front and might make a deal with Moussa in order to have a strong ally against the military and also to avoid pushing itself too obviously forward.

Finally, a critical element is the failing Egyptian economy. The situation is so bad that the current prime minister cried at a press conference in discussing it. If a huge—and unsolvable--crisis emerges, the only way for a government to deal with it politically is to divert attention into an anti-Israel, anti-Western scapegoating.

Barry Rubin: Coming War Threat: Terrorists Developing a Safe Haven in Egypt to Attack Israel

Coming War Threat: Terrorists Developing a Safe Haven in Egypt to Attack Israel

by Barry Rubin

What’s Hecuba to him, or he to Hecuba,
That he should weep for her? What would he do,
Had he the motive and the cue for passion
That I have? He would drown the stage with tears
And cleave the general ear with horrid speech….
–William Shakespeare, “Hamlet”

Or, in other words, do these writers, policymakers, and “experts” care what happens in the Middle East? War? Bloodshed? Repression? Christians fleeing; women being turned into chattel? Just a possible boost to their careers and a test for their theories. A good luncheon topic. But this is real, all too real.

First, a word on contingencies. Governments and political analysts are supposed to examine likely problems in order that they can be evaded or minimized. The time to be alarmed is not when problems become visible but when governments refuse to recognize their existence. Western regimes and analysts are generally taking a best-possible-case view on Egypt and other developing issues in the region.