After Assad, Could Syria Turn From Ally To Iran's Bitter Foe?

In a Friday post, Barry Rubin suggests: Which Way for Syria? Listen to the Sermons:

A friend of mine listened to the sermon given at the Ramadan evening prayer in a village near the north Syria town of Idleeb August 7. The closer one gets to ground level in the Middle East, the crazier things become. Sure, by the time the Western-educated, suit and tie wearing leader sits down with the Western reporter everything sounds calm and cool. But the earth is boiling. Just as the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood blames Israel for a jihadist attack on an Egyptian military base in Sinai — the Egyptian military, more pragmatically, attacked the jihadist camps — the grassroots leaders and rank and file are easily incited into murderous frenzy.

And the extent of this frenzy is illustrated by that August 7 sermon in Idleeb. There are a number of points Rubin underscores in that sermon.

Here is one of them:

Barry Rubin: Will the Rebels Win Syria's Civil War and What That Means

Will the Rebels Win Syria's Civil War
and What That Means

by Barry Rubin

The tide seems to be turning in Syria. While the civil war is far from over, the regime is clearly weakening; the rebels are expanding their operations and effectiveness. There have also been more high-level defections. What does this mean and why is this happening?

There are three main factors that are making a rebel victory seem more likely.

• First, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with Turkey’s facilitation and U.S. coordination, are sending arms to the opposition.
  
  
• Second, the regime has been rushing the same trusted units around the country to put down upsurges and these forces are getting tired and stretched thin.
  
  
• Third, President Bashar al-Assad really has nothing to offer the opposition. He won’t leave and he can’t share power. His strategy of brutal suppression and large-scale killing can neither make the opposition surrender nor wipe it out. Even if he kills civilians and demonstrators, the rebel military forces can pull back to attack another day.

The Middle East Media Sampler 7/13/2012: Key Parts Of Levy Report Translated

From DG:

1) False history 

A reader has provided Elder of Ziyon with a translation of some important parts of the Levy committee's legal reasonning. One of the central features of current critiques of Israel is claiming that it violated (or is violating) the Fourth Geneva Convention with its policy of allowing Jews to live in Judea and Samaria.

The Levy committee wrote:

We do not believe that one can draw an analogy between this legal provision and those who sought to settle in Judea and Samaria not as a result of them being "deported" or "transferred" but because of their world view - to settle the Land of Israel. 

We did not ignore the view of those who think that one should interpret the Fourth Geneva Convention as also prohibiting the occupying state to encourage or support the transfer of parts of its population to the occupied territory, even if it did not instigated it (on this issue see note 13 here). 

Syrian Opposition: Down But Not Out

In Syrian Regime Resembles Mafia Cartel, Der Spiegel is reporting that although the Syrian regime seems to be gaining momentum in quashing the rebellion--the opposition against Assad is actually growing:

On the one hand, the regime's military machine is taking city after city. After capturing Baba Amr and now Idlib in the north, it is now attacking Daraa in the south. Residential neighborhoods are shelled by tanks and artillery. There are reports of people executed with shots to the head, corpses found with their eyes poked out and children beaten to death.

Barry Rubin: Some Real Heroes: Syria’s Humanitarian Martyrs

Some Real Heroes: Syria’s Humanitarian Martyrs

By Barry Rubin

Attention must be paid. He’s not to be allowed to fall in his grave….Attention, attention must finally be paid to such a person.
–Arthur Miller, Death of a Salesman

Let us pause from the frantic pursuit of headlines and fascination at the latest novelty to acknowledge some real heroes. Not the self-publicizing Western intellectuals, academics and artists who preen as they echo every dominant fashion; not the Middle Eastern extremists, praised for terrorist acts or dreaming of bloodbaths and the creation of tyrannical regimes.

I refer to those Syrian opposition activists engaged in rescuing the wounded and bringing in food and medical supplies to besieged cities, especially Homs. Of the officials of the Avaaz group, involved in this effort, explained it this way: