Obama Administration Choice Of Opposition Group in Syria, Signals The End Approaches -- But Then What?

Barry Rubin writes that now that the Obama administration has recognized the Syrian opposition as the "legitimate representative" of the Syrian people, the Obama Initiative Marks the Beginning of the End Game

He notes that although Obama's announcement has little immediate effect, it does carry with it certain implications. Among them:

Video: How The UN Responds To 40,000 Syrians Killed

From Eye on the UN, a video on "The Unbelievable UN response to Syria."
The video is from November 30, where the UN General Assembly dealt with Syria for the first time since August, addressing 40,000 Syrians killed in close to 2 years.

Watch how the UN conducted itself, and you'll wonder why they even bothered.

Here is the video:

The Middle East Media Sampler 11/6/2012: Media And Abbas's Right Of Return

From DG:

1) No return?

Recently, as Dan Williams reported for Reuters, Mahmoud Abbas apparently gave up his "right of return."

Speaking to the top-rated Israeli television newscast, Abbas was asked whether he wanted to live in Safed, his boyhood town in the Galilee region of what had been British-ruled Palestine and is now northern Israel. 

The Middle East Media Sampler 11/1/2012: Why Do Jewish Critics of Obama Support Obama?

From DG:

1) Jews, Democrats and Israel

In The Alan Dershowitz Syndrome Lee Smith answers "Prominent Jews like the Harvard lawyer have spent years criticizing Obama. So, why are they endorsing him?":

Like many pro-Israel Democrats, Koch is still reeling from the chaos that broke out at the Democratic National Convention when Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa had to call for a floor vote three times to include recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in the party’s platform. “Nobody,” said Koch, “has adequately explained to me how the boos for God and Israel at the Democratic convention were louder than the cheers. How can that be?”

The Other War In Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Syria: Preserving The Records of the Regimes

The following by Alex Joffe is reposted here with permission:

Preserving the Syrian Paper Trail

by Alexander H. Joffe
The National Interest
October 17, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3360/syria-archives

When the regime of Bashar al-Assad is destroyed or pushed out of Damascus, it will leave behind a wrecked capital and unparalleled record of supporting terrorist groups and covert deals with Russia, Iran and North Korea. What we understand of that record will be shaped by the documents that are preserved and analyzed. What Syrians will understand about forty years of rule by the fascist Baath party and its crimes against the Syrian people also depends on preserving something vital yet almost out of sight: the regime's archives and files.

Barry Rubin: The Syrian Tragedy: Is the Proposed Cure Worse Than the Status Quo?.

Barry Rubin asks the question The Syrian Tragedy: Is the Proposed Cure Worse Than the Status Quo?.

At issue is the proposal to deal with the horrendous slaughter of Syrians by the Assad regime. The most obvious answer, especially in light of Western actions in the case of Libya, is to intervene and aid the rebellion against Assad.

But there is a problem with this obvious, humanitarian, strategy:

Will Collapse Of Assad Regime Cost More Lives Instead Of Saving Them?

The following by Daniel Pipes is reposted here with permission.

Wait Out the War in Syria

by Daniel Pipes
The Washington Times (WT title: "Stay Out of Syria: Intervention Is a Trap")
August 21, 2012

http://www.danielpipes.org/11843/syria-intervention

Bashar al-Assad's wretched presence in the Presidential Palace of Damascus may, contrary to Western assumptions, do more good than harm. His murderous, terroristic, and pro-Tehran regime is also non-ideological and relatively secular; it staves off anarchy, Islamist rule, genocide, and rogue control of Syria's chemical weapons.

Barry Rubin Interviews Syrian Pro-Democratic Oppositionist Ammar Abdulhamid,

In his post The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly About the Syrian Civil War, Middle East expert Barry Rubin interviews Ammar Abdulhamid:

Ammar Abdulhamid may know more about Syria’s civil war than anyone else in the world. That’s no exaggeration. An pro-democratic oppositionist living abroad, Abdulhamid has functioned on a virtual 24/7 basis as the source of news and analysis about events within Syria, always trying to be honest and accurate in his assessments regardless of his own preferences.

Here are two questions from the interview:

The Middle East Media Sampler 8/7/2012: Media Forgets Palestinian Terrorism

From DG:

1) "Victim of this, Victim of that"

Mitt Romney's comments about the role culture plays in economic success has led to counterclaims that it is Israel's occupation, not Palestinian culture that is responsible for the Palestinians' economic problems. We saw it in the Washington Post editorial Mitt Romney's less than successful trip abroad:

The Middle East Media Sampler 7/25/2012: Trends In The Jewish Vote For The 2012 Election

From DG:

1) How Jews vote and why

David Bernstein writes about a recently released analysis by the Solomon Project on trends in the American Jewish vote:

If one digs a bit deeper into the report, one learns that current trends suggest that the American Jewish electorate will grow less Democratic in the future. First, unlike the rest of the electorate young Jews have been less likely to vote for Democratic presidential candidates over the least three elections. Indeed, about 75% Jews under 30 voted for the Democrat (compared to about 85% of the over-60 crowd)* [by the way, this renders the premise behind Sarah Silverman's "Great Schlep" rather ridiculous, no? Maybe the alter kockers in Boca should be going up to Pennsylvania and Ohio to persuade their grandchildren to vote Democrat, rather than vice versa],(the study tabulates the last three elections together for age].

Barry Rubin: Will the Rebels Win Syria's Civil War and What That Means

Will the Rebels Win Syria's Civil War
and What That Means

by Barry Rubin

The tide seems to be turning in Syria. While the civil war is far from over, the regime is clearly weakening; the rebels are expanding their operations and effectiveness. There have also been more high-level defections. What does this mean and why is this happening?

There are three main factors that are making a rebel victory seem more likely.

• First, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with Turkey’s facilitation and U.S. coordination, are sending arms to the opposition.
  
  
• Second, the regime has been rushing the same trusted units around the country to put down upsurges and these forces are getting tired and stretched thin.
  
  
• Third, President Bashar al-Assad really has nothing to offer the opposition. He won’t leave and he can’t share power. His strategy of brutal suppression and large-scale killing can neither make the opposition surrender nor wipe it out. Even if he kills civilians and demonstrators, the rebel military forces can pull back to attack another day.

Barry Rubin: Clearest and Briefest Possible Summary of the Situation in Syria

Clearest and Briefest Possible Summary of the Situation in Syria

by Barry Rubin

There are three possible outcomes to the Syrian civil war:

1. Assad continues in power. This is bad as he is allied with Iran and Hizballah and attacks Israel through Lebanon. On the plus side, however, the regime will continue to be weak and unlikely to attack Israel directly. The regime will also continue to be anti-American in every way.
   
   
2. Assad is overthrown by MB/Sunni Islamist dominated government. This is worse. Such a regime is likely to believe--mistakenly--that it can attack U.S. interests and Israel with impunity.
   
   
3. Assad is overthrown by forces that lead to a regime of moderate, led by Sunni liberals, allied with Druze and Kurdish nationalists and with Christians. That would be better. Remember that only 60 percent of Syrians are Sunni Muslim Arabs and the Brotherhood has always been far weaker in Syria than in Egypt.