CONDOLEEZZA RICE: SHADOW PLAY. Condoleezza's current initiative is not going to remind people of Oslo. Jonathan Spyer of GLORIA writes:

US Secretary of State Condolleeza Rice has now completed her four day trip to the Middle East. Dr. Rice was evidently well-pleased at what she found, describing herself as "impressed by the seriousness of (Olmert and Abbas) to really advance this two state solution." A number of commentators have remarked on the similarity between the current moment and the days of the Oslo peace process. A notable difference, however, is that during Oslo one had the sense that the protagonists, or at least some of them, really believed they were on the way to making peace in the Middle East. This time around, the whole thing has a strained, slightly unreal sense to it. What lies behind this?

One issue of course if the lack of credibilty of the 2 leaders involved: Olmert and Abbas. In Abbas' case, it is more than the fact that he is weak and not respected among his own people:

Indeed, a sizeable part of Abbas's public currently lives under the rival Palestinian Authority maintained by Hamas in Gaza. The very existence of that authority raises the question of in whose name exactly will Abbas and Fayad be negotiating, and who will feel bound by any agreement they might reach.

Also, the issue of Return has been a far bigger sticking point than was initially understood:

The peace process of the 1990s collapsed not because of a misunderstanding, but because of the fundamentally irreconcilable positions of the sides - most crucially, on the issue of the Palestinian refugees of 1948 and their descendants. The Israeli left thought that the Palestinian 'right of return' was a sort of metaphor, which required only a bit of empathy and a few ritual expressions of guilt to be satisfied. They found out they were wrong.

So in the end, everything we see now is for show:

Various influential parties have an interest in the appearance of a peace process. So the appearance of a peace process there shall be. But there has been no substantive shift in the underlying geology of the conflict to really merit the latest outburst of diplomacy. Rather, it is motivated by regional and internal political factors not directly related to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. Given this, the likelihood is that a great deal of process is about to take place, but that peace will remain elusive.

Instapundit has noted on occasion that "Democracy is a process, not an event." A peace process too--by definition--should be a process and not an event. These days, despite the success of the Surge on one end of the Middle East, on the other they are going through the motions.

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