Showing posts with label Lebanon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lebanon. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Has UNIFIL Forgotten What Its Mandate Is?

Last month, UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti was interviewed on an i24NEWS program called The Rundown. At one point, starting at 3:33 and extending to 4:40, Tenenti described just what UNIFIL's mandate is:



So, according to Tenenti:

  • UNIFIL's job is limited to monitoring
  • UNIFIL has no mandate to disarm Hezbollah
  • UNIFIL is not allowed to search private property
video screengrab
UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti. Video screengrab


At first glance, Tenenti seems to be right.

Sunday, December 09, 2018

Where Was UNIFIL While Hezbollah Was Digging Its Terror Tunnel?

The IDF provides an aerial photo showing the path of the tunnel that necessitated Israel's Operation Northern Shield:


And where was UNIFIL all this time?
In the image below, the UNIFIL watchtower is indicated by the white circle, just hundreds of meters from where the tunnel ended.


Clearly, Hezbollah is not afraid of UNIFIL.
And why should they be?

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Jonathan Spyer: Do 'Syria,' 'Iraq' and 'Lebanon' Still Exist?

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission:

Do 'Syria,' 'Iraq' and 'Lebanon' Still Exist?

 

by Jonathan Spyer
The Tower
February 2014

photo
Jonathan Spyer
For almost a century, the Middle East has been defined by the nation-states that emerged following the Allied victory in World War I and the end of the colonial era. Since then, strategic analyses of the region have concentrated on the relations between these states, and diplomatic efforts have generally attempted to maintain their stability and the integrity of their borders. As a result, the current map of the Middle East has remained largely unchanged over more than nine decades.

But this is no longer the case. The old maps no longer reflect the reality on the ground, and the region is now defined not by rivalry between nation-states, but by sectarian divisions that are spilling across the old borders and rendering them irrelevant. Today, there is a single sectarian war underway across the Middle East, one that threatens to engulf the entire region.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Arlene Kushner: Proposed Bedouin Law Not Dead; The Saudi-Israeli Handshake

From Arlene Kushner:
December 18, 2013

A Bit of a Mess


More than a bit, actually, as Israel is digging out from the snowstorm of the century.  It is the story that has taken headlines in the news for days: 
Remote communities totally snowed in.  Roads blocked by trees that came down (because the snow is very heavy).  Black ice. Power outages.  Babies delivered in cars that didn't reach the hospital in time.  Schools closed in some areas.  Meetings cancelled.

Snow
Credit: JPost
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We're on the way back to normal. But the progress has been slow because this is such an unusual phenomenon here.  People don't own snow shovels (I wouldn't know where to buy one!) and so many sidewalks remain covered in half-melted snow that is still freezing at night.  What is more, there is insufficient municipal equipment for the clearing of every side street.  This is a function, in part, of the rarity with which the equipment would be used, and, as well, a function of the diverse and more pressing demands made on a limited budget.
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But if the equipment for good snow clearing is not the norm in this area, politicizing the situation sure is.  Here's a chance to blame Netanyahu for not being more prepared, in light of the forecast.  Could the government have been better prepared?  I'm not going to go there.  Perhaps. But I also know that the damages caused by a natural event cannot all be anticipated or prevented, and it's foolish to pretend otherwise.
And what do you say about those people (few in number) who were foolish enough to have ventured out - towards Jerusalem, which is uphill - in the height of the storm the other day, with children in the car?  The IDF had to rescue them.  And rescue them, they did.
~~~~~~~~~~
Even as we dig out, the world does go on - although, I confess, much of what's happening rather makes news of the snow appealing.
But let's start with good news:

Monday, August 12, 2013

Hilal Khashan: The Political Isolation of Lebanese Sunnis

The following by Hilal Khashan is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

The Political Isolation of Lebanese Sunnis



by Hilal Khashan
Middle East Quarterly
Summer 2013, pp. 69-75 (view PDF)


Thursday, June 20, 2013

What Do Nasrallah and Hezbollah Have Planned for Lebanon?

The following by Hilal Khashan is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Hezbollah's Plans for Lebanon


by Hilal Khashan
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2013, pp. 81-86 (view PDF)


Hezbollah first became known to the Lebanese public in 1985 with its now-famous open letter, whose introductory statement read: "We are the sons of the umma (Muslim community)—of the party of God (Hezbollah), the vanguard of which was made victorious by God in Iran. … We obey the orders of one leader… that of our tutor and faqih [i.e., Ayatollah Khomeini]."[1] A year later Hassan Nasrallah, then an officer associated with the party's consultative council and now its supreme leader, made the organization's overall goals and strategy unmistakably clear: "We are incapable at the present time of installing the rule of Islam, but this does not mean postponing our ideology and project … We must work hard to achieve our goal, and the most important means of doing so is to transform Lebanon into a society of war."[2]

Friday, April 12, 2013

Mideast Media Sampler 4/12/13: The Media As A Tool in the Islamists War Against The West

by David Gerstman, contributing blogger at Legal Insurrection

1) How to fight asymmetric warfare

Charles Enderlein and Philipe Karsenty are back in court. Enderlein was the reporter who created the story of Mohammed al-Dura. Karsenty is the media critic who had the temerity to question the much honored "journalist." Back in 2008 Karsenty successfully fended off a libel suit brought by Enderlein. For reasons, I don't understand the case is back in court with a verdict due May 22.

Richard Landes has explained the case in terms of asymmetric warfare:
All asymmetrical wars take place primarily in the cognitive arena, with the major theater of war the enemy’s public sphere. The goal is to convince your far more powerful enemy not to fight. In defensive cases, from the Maccabees to the Vietnamese, this has meant getting imperial powers to “go home.” But Islamists who want to spread Dar al Islam conduct an offensive campaign: how to get your targets to surrender on their own home ground? In this seemingly absurd venture, they have had remarkable success. The mainstream news media – their journalists, editors, producers – constitute a central front of this cognitive war: the “weak” but aggressive side cannot have success without the witting or unwitting cooperation of the enemy’s journalists. The success of global Jihad in eliciting our media’s cooperation with their goals
This is correct though it isn't new.

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Will Syria's Strife Rip Lebanon Apart?

The following by Hilal Khashan is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:


Will Syria's Strife Rip Lebanon Apart?



by Hilal Khashan
Middle East Quarterly
Winter 2013, pp. 75-80 (view PDF)


The assassination of Lebanese security chief brigadier general Wissam Hassan on October 19 has rekindled fears of renewed confessional strife in Lebanon. The anti-Assad opposition quickly blamed the Syrian regime for eliminating one of its foremost Beirut opponents while enraged demonstrators took to the streets to demand the resignation of prime minister Najib Miqati.[1]

Yet while the persistence and intensification of the Syrian civil war has undoubtedly amplified Lebanese instability and placed the country's fate on the edge, the assassination is unlikely to "drag Lebanon into the fray."[2] Western countries, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are not interested in destabilizing Lebanon, and Syria has lost its ability to manipulate its neighbor's internal affairs.

The tables have turned, and it is Syria's time to suffer. Despite their deep ideological divisions, the Lebanese appear to have come of age and learned to prevent their differences from reaching the point of open confrontation.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Questioning Tzipi Livni's Claims About The Second Lebanese War in 2006

In light of the fact that Tzipi Livni is joining Netanyahu's coalition, Eli Hertz writes about her role in Israel's Second Lebanese War and Livni's Misguided Sense of Accomplishments, noting questionable claims that Livni has made.

In brief, Hertz makes the following point:
  1. Livni: “Security Council Resolution 1701 is an Israeli achievement”

    Fact: Adopting Resolution 1701 under Chapter VII was a clear goal of Israel that did not materialize.

    Under international law, Resolution 1701 that was adopted under Chapter VI is at best a declarative statement that lacks the legal authority or enforcement power whatsoever. All the rest is wishful thinking and the results on the ground will attest to it.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Syrian Opposition Forces Reportedly Bomb Hezbollah Compound In Lebanon

Logo of The Israel Project



February 21, 2013

Sources in the Free Syrian Army, the main armed group fighting to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad, are announcing that its soldiers have bombed two Hezbollah compounds, one in Syria and another in the Lebanese town of Hermel. If confirmed, the development may mark a critical turn in Syria’s two-year war, bearing out fears that the increasingly sectarian conflict would spill over across Syria’s borders.

Monday, February 18, 2013

If Its Ally Syria Falls, Will Iran Just Take Over Lebanon?

That is the implication of the Asharq Alawsat article about Hezbollah’s Asylum Offer

According to the article, Iran is supporting the Assad regime's army while at the same time preparing to back an Alawite entity composed of Syrian provinces that are adjacent to the Lebanese border -- including the port in Latakia that is instrumental in bringing supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But that is not all:

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Barry Rubin: As Hizballah Prepares for War, The Ceasefire Is Going “Very Well”

by Barry Rubin
Israel is constantly urged to put its trust in the international community, an idea that hasn’t worked out too well in the past. Now the UN special envoy for Lebanon has given another reason why Israel shouldn’t take risks and make concessions based on the hope of support from international guarantees.

While he did about the best he could given his situation, Michael Williams, the British diplomat working for the UN in this job, said the UN-sponsored ceasefire that ended the Hizballah-Israel war in 2006 is holding up “very well.”

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Lebanon Fires On Israel While UNIFIL Backs Israel

The incident was the first of its kind on the relatively calm front since Regiment Commander Dov Harari was killed on August 3, 2010. After the incident the Lebanese army announced it would be more careful and attempt to refrain from causing additional incidents.
YetNew, UNIFIL: IDF troops didn't cross border

So much for Lebanese promises.

It is almost exactly 1 year since the Lebanese sniper killed the Israeli commander, who was clearly on the Israeli side of the border. Now, the Lebanese are again initiating violence:

Friday, July 29, 2011

Arlene Kushner On: UNRWA, A Palestinian State, Peres, And Hizbollah

From Arlene Kushner:

July 29, 2011
 
"UNRWA and More"
 
There's a great deal about UNRWA in the news these days, and I have no doubt that I'll return to this subject again before long.  Now I want, first, to share a link to my latest report on the subject. This is more of a mini-report (my major reports can run 30 or 40 pages) -- an overview, with more information to follow. The subject: UNRWA's connection with Hamas.
 
In Gaza, members of a Hamas-affiliated group, the Islamic Bloc, go right into UNRWA schools and do programming with the goal of recruiting the next generation of members for Hamas.
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
Then, an article of mine that has just come out in Middle East Quarterly, which takes a close look at the anti-Israel statements of key UNRWA personnel:
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~
 
I am sooo tired of Mahmoud Abbas.  So tired of hearing of his conflicting statements and outright lies, and so tired of reporting them to you, when you are likely sooo tired of them. as well.  Thus I will allude only briefly to the two following items:

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

HARVARD REPORT EXAMINES MEDIA COVERAGE OF LEBANON WAR: Honest Reporting has an article covering the under-reported report:
Harvard Report Examines Media Coverage of Lebanon War

Back at the beginning of March 2007, HonestReporting's Backspin blog drew attention to a research paper published by Harvard University, which examined media coverage of the 2006 Lebanon War. The conclusion: Hezbollah succeeded at using the media as a weapon against Israel. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the mainstream media, having allowed themselves to be cynically manipulated by the Hezbollah propaganda machine, failed to report the findings of the Harvard study.
While the initial lack of publicity was disappointing, a number of blogs have recently revisited the study, generating a surge in internet-led interest. This prompted the Jerusalem Post to report:

"An open society, Israel, is victimized by its own openness," Marvin Kalb and Dr. Carol Saivetz of the Shorenstein Center of Harvard University concluded in their research paper, "The Israeli-Hezbollah War of 2006: The Media as a Weapon in Asymmetrical Conflict." "A closed sect, Hizbullah, can retain almost total control of the daily message of journalism and propaganda," manipulating its image to the world, the February 28 paper found.

"In strictly military terms, Israel did not lose to Hizbullah in this war, but it clearly did not win. In the war of information, news and propaganda, the battlefield central to Hizbullah's strategy, Israel lost this war," Kalb and Saivetz concluded.

Hizbullah was able to exploit skillfully the technological innovations wrought by the internet and the demands of the 24/7 news cycle, and constructed the narrative story line for the "first really 'live' war in history" where "the camera and the computer" were "weapons of war," they argued.

For Hizbullah, the Second Lebanon War was a "crucial battle in a broader, ongoing war, linking religious fundamentalism to Arab nationalism." Its chosen field of battle was the media and its strategic aim was to win the hearts and minds of the Arab world.

Citing US and Australian military experts, Kalb and Saivetz stated Hizbullah believed the "historic struggle between Western modernity and Islamic fundamentalism will ultimately be resolved" on the "information battlefield." Hizbullah's media strategy was crafted to achieve this end, they said.

In the Second Lebanon War, Hizbullah limited access to Western reporters, "orchestrated" events and manipulated journalists with threats of expulsion if they violated its reporting rules. And the press largely complied with the restrictions that were "reminiscent of the Soviet era," Kalb and Saivetz found.

In one example cited by the paper, on a tour of a Shi'ite neighborhood of Beirut damaged by IAF air strikes, Hizbullah warned reporters not to "wander off on their own or speak to residents" and to photograph only approved sights. If the press violated these rules, "cameras would be confiscated, film or tape destroyed, and offending reporters would never be allowed access to Hizbullah officials or Hizbullah-controlled areas."

"At one point, apparently on cue, a Hizbullah minder signaled for ambulances to rev up their engines, set off their sirens and drive noisily down the street. The scene was orchestrated, designed to provide a photo op, and reporters went along for the ride."

"So far as we know" Kalb and Saivetz stated, all of the reporters on the tour only CNN's Anderson Cooper reported on the "attempt to create and control a story." The rest of the press "followed the Hizbullah script."

Read the full JPost article here. The full Harvard publication (in pdf format) can be found on HonestReporting's Media Bias Research page.

HonestReporting addressed many of the mainstream media's failings during the Lebanon War, including doctored photography, the reporting of staged incidents as fact, and biased or inaccurate journalism. This comprehensive Harvard publication should be read by all media organizations that value high journalistic standards.
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Thursday, September 28, 2006

The Only Ones That UNIFIL Can Control

Smooth Stone links to an article in Haaretz that indicates that in Lebanon, UNIFIL should have no trouble at all acting as a deterrent...to Israel.

But when it comes to dealing with Hezbollah, they are not equipped at all to do the job they are there to do in the first place.

Technorati Tag: and and and .

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Has Amnesty International Seen The Light?

On September 4, the NGO Monitor came out with a report: Amnesty continues to distort human rights rhetoric to attack Israeli actions in Lebanon, documenting what they politely called "problematic statements" made by the group during Israel's war with Hezbollah:

By artificially separating Hezbollah attacks from the Israeli responses, the analysis lacks credibility, inverts the priority of core human rights values and glosses over Hezbollah's missile attacks and use of human shields. Similarly, the authors have erased the context, including Syrian and Iranian support and provision of missiles to Hezbollah, while claiming a level of military expertise where none is evident. In addition, the conclusions are based on unverifiable evidence provided by "eyewitnesses" in Lebanon, whose may be strongly influenced by support for or threats from Hezbollah. As a result, this report is internally inconsistent, lacks credibility, and should be seen as a political statement rather than a careful evaluation of human rights issues.

But then, just 10 days later, the Boston Herald reported on that very same Amnesty International, which seems to have done an abrupt about-face:

Amnesty International has introduced a comprehensive report accusing a terrorist group of war crimes.In utter defiance of the predominant American left, European and United Nations view that Israel engaged in gross war crimes against civilians and freedom fighters in Lebanon, Amnesty International has announced that in its opinion, Hezbollah is guilty of war crimes. Hezbollah purposefully and indiscriminately targeted Israeli civilians.

The AI report notes that despite Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s subsequent protestations to the contrary, he stated publicly and repeatedly during the conflict that he was firing his missiles at civilian areas to make Israeli civilians pay for their army’s actions, and with his uncontrolled Katyushas, an indiscriminate weapon, he killed 43 of them. He had advised Israeli Arabs to leave those areas.He had provoked the war with a cross border attack in which some Israeli soldiers were killed and others seized.
Now the question is whether Amnesty International, with the publication of this new report, is changing its approach or is merely trying to look respectable--after all, besides emphasizing the actions of Israel vis-a-vis Hezbollah, AI has also been a persistent if not single-minded critic of the United States as well in its war against terrorism.

Alex Margolin, NGO's publication manager, responded in an email that he believes that AI has taken a small step that distinguishes it from other groups, such as Human Rights Watch.
But despite its length and detail, the report remains incomplete as long as Amnesty fails to address the serious issues surrounding Hezbollah's use of human shields and the impact their war tactics had on the Lebanese civilians. Amnesty must follow through with detailed studies of the situation, and be open to revising their earlier claims about Israel's role in the deaths of Lebanese civilians should the facts show that Hezbollah were actually responsible.

As far as what is behind the report, I think it is a simple question of credibility. Human Rights Watch has experienced an unprecedented level of criticism for their biased work on the war in Lebanon -- the Weekly Standard ran a cover story on this, and there have been numerous op-eds. Amnesty had already released a 50-page report that focused exclusively on Israel's actions. It doesn't take an expert in international humanitarian law to know that firing 4000 Katyushas on residential areas is a war crime. If Amnesty refused to look at the situation honestly, how could it be taken seriously?
It is reassuring to see that such groups actually are not impervious to public scrutiny and criticism--and maybe we'll see a similar turn-around from HRW as well. The effectiveness of such scrutiny only emphasizes the need to keep these kinds of issues in the limelight and part of public discussion.

As for the AI report itself, according to the Boston Herald, it still did not deal with the question of the estimated 1,000 Lebanese civilians who were killed in the populated areas where Hezbollah and set up command positions. They said the issue is too complex to comment on.

It is too important not to.
AI needs to realize that.

Crossposted at Israpundit

Technorati Tag: and and and .

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Debunking Some Myths About Israel And The War In Lebanon

Emanuele Ottolenghi, in an article for the National Review, writes about the myths created as a result of the Lebanon War:
Every war generates its myths, and the recent war in Lebanon is no exception. This war's myths are that Israel lost and Hezbollah won; that this was due to Israel's reluctance to take casualties; and that Hezbollah's victory in turn shattered the image of Israel's military invincibility.
He goes on to discuss the myth that Hezbollah won the war--and if this topic interests you, go and read the article.

What interests me is what he writes about other myths about Israel that have been produced by the war:
What of the myth of Israel's invincibility that this war supposedly shattered, and the myth that it was Israel's reluctance to absorb casualties that caused Israel to balk?
Ottolenghi describes the wars--both conventional and non-conventional--that Israel has fought: from 1948 to the present, including both Intifadas. He also describes some of the enormous losses that Israel suffered in the process. Nevertheless:
There is a pattern, then: Each war brings Israel a new challenge. Each time, it takes Israel time to absorb the blow, understand its nature and mechanisms, and then make elaborate corrections and improvements to its combat doctrine. Israel has lost battles in the past. It learned from its mistakes and it improved its fighting capabilities the next time around. In this worn-out recent war with Hezbollah, Israel's performance was no different from that in past wars. At a heavy price, it inflicted a severe, but not decisive, blow to Hezbollah. It will now learn how to fight better next time around.
As for the myth that Israel can no longer put up with the casualties that she must put up with to survive:
If this were true, how could we explain Israel's victory in the second Intifada? Over 1,000 civilians were shredded to bits by Palestinian terror. Yet, Israeli society soldiered on — literally. In the latest round of fighting, it was Israel's leadership that balked at the risk of casualties, not the country, which from left to right was united in an unprecedented support for a more comprehensive and aggressive campaign to finish off Hezbollah once and for all. Israel's home front did not break down, despite a month spent in shelters in the North, and the severe shortcomings of its logistical machine and those who were in charge of it. Israelis proved their resilience and their stubborn will to stay and put up a fight, for when the real volley of missiles comes in from further afield.
Israel's army is resourceful.
Israelis are resilient.

But what about Israel's political leadership?

Apparently, it is still mything.

Crossposted at Israpundit

Technorati Tag: and and and .

Friday, September 01, 2006

UN: No Right To Self-Defense In International Law

The blog of the Claremont Institute, The Remedy, notes that there is a:
U.N. Report which denies that there is such a thing as a right to self-defense in international law.
No international human right of self-defence is expressly set forth in the primary sources of international law: treaties, customary law, or general principles.
The Remedy counters that the modern ideas of the law of nations runs counter to the UN's formulation, quoting Emmerich de Vattel:
IN vain does nature prescribe to nations, as well as to individuals, the care of self-preservation, and of advancing their own perfection and happiness, if she does not give them a right to preserve themselves from every thing that might render this care ineffectual. This right is nothing more than a moral power of acting, that is, the power of doing what is morally possible — what is proper and conformable to our duties. We have, then, in general, a right to do whatever is necessary to the discharge of our duties. Every nation, as well as every man, has, therefore, a right to prevent other nations from obstructing her preservation, her perfection, and happiness, — that is, to preserve herself from all injuries (§ 18): and this right is a perfect one, since it is given to satisfy a natural and indispensable obligation: for, when we cannot use constraint in order to cause our rights to be respected, their effects are very uncertain. It is this right to preserve herself from all injury that is called the right to security. [emphasis added]
This goes against the UN report, which sees self-defense by the State more as a concession--reluctantly granted and strongly limite--than as a right:
Self-defence is a widely recognized, yet legally proscribed, exception to the universal duty to respect the right to life of others. Self-defence is a basis for exemption from criminal responsibility that can be raised by any State agent or non-State actor. Self-defence is sometimes designated as a “right”. There is inadequate legal support for such an interpretation. Self-defence is more properly characterized as a means of protecting the right to life and, as such, a basis for avoiding responsibility for violating the rights of another. [emphasis added]
This seems to be the direction that Human Rights Watch follows, as enunciated by Kenneth Roth, the Executive Head of HRW in New York. In his article in the Jerusalem Post entitled Indiscriminate bombardment, Roth makes reference to international law three times--but each time refers to it as "international humanitarian law," circumscribing the rule of law in the conduct of war and putting the lives of others before the lives of the country being attacked [see: Human Rights Watch: Human Rights Vs. Human Life].

This may not be the first attempt to put legal limits on a country's right to self-defense.

Leanne Piggott, a lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Sydney and a director of Academic Programs of the Centre for International Security Studies wrote in July 2004 about the Hague's decision on Israel's Security Fence--Judges' ruling rewrites UN Charter on self-defence:
THE advisory opinion brought down by the International Court of Justice last Friday in relation to Israel's separation barrier has implications far beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Buried deep in the text of its opinion is a bombshell that purports to radically rewrite the rules of international law governing the inherent right of states to defend themselves and their citizens.

The ICJ recognises that this right is enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter. But the ICJ then says that this right is limited to self-defence in the case of armed attack "by one state against another state". That limitation does not appear anywhere in the text of Article 51 itself. Article 51 recognises that states have an inherent right of self-defence "if an armed attack occurs". It does not say that the armed attack must have been carried out by, or be attributable to, another state.

The distinction is critical in the on-going struggle against international terrorism. Although every act of terrorism necessarily originates in territory (or aboard a ship or aircraft) that is owned or occupied by a sovereign state, it does not follow that every such act of terrorism is supported by that state, and attributable to it in a legal sense.

The ICJ is now saying that if terrorists based in the territory of state A attack state B without the passive or active support of state A, state B may not have the right to defend itself from future attack by striking back at the terrorist base – despite Article 51. [emphasis added]
The logic of that last paragraph seems to be pretty much in sync with the assumptions expressed by many critics of Israel's bombing of Hezbollah terrorist bases in Lebanon.

Technorati Tag: and and and .

One More Time: Did Hezbollah Win The War Or Not?

Not if you ask Austin Bay.

And he seems to make a good case.
Which of course is not to say that Israel won--
But the emerging "big picture" suggests the War of the Rockets physically punished and politically damaged Hezbollah, despite its media touts of victory.
...What did Hezbollah lose? The Israel-Hezbollah war began with Lebanon as a "hijacked nation state." Hezbollah (supported by Iran and Syria) controlled southern Lebanon and Lebanon's southern border, which put the area in a geo-political limbo. Southern Lebanon was not fully sovereign Lebanese territory.

At the moment, Israel exerts more control over Lebanon's southern border than Hezbollah, U.N. peacekeepers or the Lebanese government. That may not be an Israeli win, but it is no victory laurel for Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

Hezbollah still dominates swaths of southern Lebanon and in those areas retains the ability to intimidate Lebanese locals and fire rockets at various current and potential adversaries -- Israel for sure, but also U.N. peacekeepers and the Lebanese Army. However, positioning Lebanese government forces and U.N. peacekeepers in south Lebanon could slowly diminish Hezbollah's military and political capacities.

Yes, peacekeepers could end up protecting Hezbollah. However, if the United Nations' military Rules of Engagement (ROE) are robust, Hezbollah's ability to act will be very circumscribed. The United Nations' 1995 failure to protect Srbrenica, Bosnia, is a huge stain that aggressive policing in south Lebanon would help remove.

If Turkish troops are part of the U.N. contingent, Hezbollah will face even stiffer political and military constraints. Turkey wants to make the case that its confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq is analogous to the one Israel faces with Hezbollah. A Turkish U.N. contingent would be a tough Muslim opponent for Hezbollah.

Hezbollah isn't poised to win The War of the Wallets, either. Using Iranian cash, Hezbollah has bought influence in Lebanon by funding social services. Hezbollah announced it will provide funds to rebuild homes destroyed in the war.

But the U.S. government has countered with its own "green" strategy, as in greenbacks to rebuild the whole of Lebanon.
Then there is Amir Taheri adding his two cents:
Taheri argues that Hezbollah is on the edge of a huge political defeat within Lebanon. "The leaders of the March 14 movement," Taheri writes, "which has a majority in the Lebanese Parliament and government, have demanded an investigation into the circumstances that led to the war, a roundabout way of accusing Hezbollah of having provoked the tragedy."
And StrategyPage.com adding theirs:
StrategyPage.com noted Hezbollah's political and military failure as it occurred, noting on July 26:
"Hezbollah knows, however, that as long as they can launch at least one rocket a day, they can claim victory. This is because Arabs no longer expect to ... defeat Israel militarily, so that if the Arab force is still fighting, it is considered a victory. While ludicrous, this attitude has been widely accepted throughout the Middle East. However, this twisted logic is beginning to fray, and an increasing number of Arabs are questioning it. But in the short term, it still works."
And noting on July 25:
"While Hezbollah has been able to muster public support throughout Lebanon and the Arab world, they know that in the aftermath of all this, despite declaring a victory, they are already being blamed for causing a disaster, and will suffer substantial losses in the aftermath of this war."
All that's left now is to see if history imitates punditry.

Technorati Tag: and and and and .