Arlene Kushner On Why Egypt's Military Is Very Much In The Picture

From Arlene Kushner:

August 17, 2012

A More Nuanced View

Well, the grandchildren have gone home and Kaitana Savta ("Camp Grandma") is over for this summer.  It afforded me a great deal of (exhausting) joy, and gave me strength for the work I do.  

It will be back to normal very soon.  But as Shabbat preparations are necessary today, I will start here with a mini-posting on one of the key issues we are confronting today: The situation in Egypt.

You may have noticed that when I wrote about Morsi's dismissal of Tantawi I was more circumspect than many other commentators.  For example, I noted that Morsi consulted with Tantawi before retiring him and gave him an honorary position afterward. And I asked, This is a coup? A completion of the revolution?

The Middle East Media Sampler 8/13/2012: Morsi Wins Out Over Egyptian Military

From DG:

1) More coverage of Morsi's power grab 

The New York Times reports In Upheaval for Egypt, Morsi Forces Out Military Chiefs:

As analysts struggled to tell whether the shake-up represented a break between Mr. Morsi and the military, or a carefully brokered deal, many looked for clues in the replacements named for the retired generals.

For two major posts, Mr. Morsi chose officers from the supreme military council, suggesting that he had possibly struck a deal with younger officers. Some saw the way that the retirements were announced — not as voluntary actions by the officers, but as referrals by the president — as evidence that they were a surprise. But that was far from clear.

Now That Muslim Brotherhood Rules, What About All Those Weapons They Have Near Israel's Border?

Just two days ago, I wrote a post entitled: Could The Egyptian Military Be On The Verge Of Ousting The Muslim Brotherhood?.

The answer is clearly "no".

My post was based on a discussion among pundits recorded in a new blog at the Gatestone Institute, The Call, in a post entitled The Egyptian Mess.

Well, they did get the title right.

In a new post entitled Lords of Chaos Rule the Middle East, David Goldman commented:

Who Really Rules Egypt: President Morsi or Army Head Tantawi?

The following by Daniel Pipes and Cynthia Farahat is reposted with permission

Egypt's Real Ruler: Mohamed Tantawi

by Daniel Pipes and Cynthia Farahat
The Washington Times
July 11, 2012

http://www.danielpipes.org/11584/mohamed-tantawi

N.B.: Differs in small ways from the Washington Times version.

What does it mean that Mohamed Morsi is president of Egypt? Speaking for the American consensus, Bret Stephens recently argued in the Wall Street Journal against the consolation that the Muslim Brotherhood's victory "is merely symbolic, since the army still has the guns." He concluded that "Egypt is lost."

We shall argue to the contrary: the election was not just symbolic but illusory, and Egypt's future remains very much in play.

Barry Rubin: Who Rules Egypt? The Battle Begins

Who Rules Egypt? The Battle Begins

by Barry Rubin

It is impossible for the moment to say what’s going to happen in Egypt. But there are two basic scenarios:

• The armed forces, which have declared martial law, will continue to control the real power and will use the Muslim Brotherhood leader who has become president, Muhammad al-Mursi, as a figurehead. Evidence for this includes the fact that the military is the current source for legislation in Egypt and controls foreign policy.
  
  
• The armed forces will impose a sweet deal on al-Mursi, letting him do pretty much what he wants as long as he doesn’t touch the military’s economic wealth and the army as an institution. The armed forces will determine who becomes defense minister and will set their own budget. Perhaps the generals will also insist al-Mursi doesn’t go too far in threatening Israel or antagonizing the United States (placing U.S. aid to the military in jeopardy).