Monday, August 13, 2012

Now That Muslim Brotherhood Rules, What About All Those Weapons They Have Near Israel's Border?

Just two days ago, I wrote a post entitled: Could The Egyptian Military Be On The Verge Of Ousting The Muslim Brotherhood?.

The answer is clearly "no".

My post was based on a discussion among pundits recorded in a new blog at the Gatestone Institute, The Call, in a post entitled The Egyptian Mess.

Well, they did get the title right.

In a new post entitled Lords of Chaos Rule the Middle East, David Goldman commented:
After the anti-Muslim Brotherhood demonstration at the soldiers' funeral this week, my prior was that the SCAF [Supreme Council of the Armed Forces] was the aggressor against Morsi. It may have been entirely the reverse. Morsi might have set up the Sinai incident and the protests at the funeral were a defensive response by the military (ultimately futile).
Read the whole thing.

So rather that last week's terrorist attack in the Sinai having embarrassed Morsi and strengthened the Egyptian military--the opposite turns out to have been the case.

Dr. Aaron Lerner correctly called that Morsi would tame the Egyptian military:
Today, as Egyptian President Morsy got rid of the entire leadership of the Egyptian military I could most certainly be proud to note that I am one of the very few who consistently warned from day one that Morsy the chess player would move faster than all the predictions. And one of the few that didn’t embrace the narrative that Morsy was stuck honoring for the foreseeable future a delicate balance with the leaders of the Egyptian military.
Similarly, as he notes on his Facebook page Martin Kramer also foresaw that the Muslim Brotherhood was unstoppable:
Tantawi is out. As I wrote (June 26): “No one can stop Brotherhood. You say: what about the military chiefs? The military’s efforts to contain the Muslim Brotherhood, at this late date, can only buy limited time. The simple truth is that Egypt isn’t going to revert to military rule. Egypt is headed toward populist Islamist rule, and it is just a matter of time before the Brotherhood checkmates its opponents.”
Read Kramer's Worst-case scenario in Egypt from June 26.

For his part, Lerner notes, with concern, the massive Egyptian forces deployed literally on Israel's border, and wonders just when the tanks, attack helicopters and mobile artillery pieces, etc. are going to be moved away. Just as some assumed the terrorist attack might be used to weaken the Muslim Brotherhood, only to see that it weakened the military instead, could it be that same attack could be used as an excuse for maintaining Egyptian military forces in the Sinai, near Israel's border, for the foreseeable future?

Without the Egyptian military to keep an eye on things, can Israel really trust the Muslim Brotherhood to keep those weapons there only as long as needed--and then remove them when they are not?

And would that be a factor in considering an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities?

Just asking.
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Empress Trudy said...

Egypt is ramping up an attack on Israel. Take that to the bank.

Daled Amos said...

I won't discount that, but there is a major difference between bringing in some troops and bringing in regiments, which would raise a major red flag.

I am suspicious of what Egypt is doing there, but being allowed by Israel to bring in some troops wouldn't allow them to build up to the degree they would if they were thinking of war.