Something Is Missing From CNN's Exit Poll of Jews

On the day of the election, NJDC noted on their site the results of a CNN poll which found: Jews Vote Democratic 87%-12%. The NJDC didn't do any sort of analysis of the numbers, but clearly the Jewish identification with the Democratic Party is stronger than ever.

In attempting to put the numbers from the CNN poll in perspective, elections expert Steve Rabinowitz makes 2 points:

1. When Jews went to the polls, while they did not vote for anti-Israel candidates, they voted for the candidates they thought would be good for Israel, but not necessarily the ones who would be the best for Israel.

2. Jews didn't ignore the other issues that were important to them, such as: the war in Iraq, the economy, immigration, the environment and abortion. [Interesting that he includes the economy, which with the drop in oil prices and record highs in the Stock Market should be a plus for Republicans.]

What is interesting is that the CNN exit poll treats the Jewish vote as monolithic--it does not take into account the difference in attitude towards Israel between those Jews who are more religious and those who are less religious.

It is not far fetched to believe that the Orthodox, who have a stronger association with Israel will be more likely--as a bloc--to vote Republican, especially because of the closer identification with them in terms of family values as a whole. But the CNN poll does not do a breakdown of the Jewish vote based on the difference in level of observance.

That is all the more odd, since in the poll CNN does in fact make allowances for the more and less religious among Christians. In the actual CNN poll, they examine the Christian vote in 3 categories:

• BORN-AGAIN OR EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN?
• WHITE EVANGELICAL/BORN-AGAIN?
• VOTE BY CHURCH ATTENDANCE

In the category 'vote by church attendance' the percentage of those who voted Republican increased with the attendance at church:

VOTE BY CHURCH ATTENDANCE

TOTAL	Democrat	Republican
More Than Weekly (17%)	38%	60%
Weekly (28%)	46%	53%
Monthly (12%)	57%	41%
A Few Times a Year (25%)	60%	38%
Never (15%)	67%	30%

VOTE BY CHURCH ATTENDANCE

TOTAL	Democrat	Republican
Weekly (45%)	43%	55%
Occasionally (38%)	59%	39%
Never (15%)	67%	30%

It is likely the same by Jews.

The fact that CNN does not have a similar category by Jews may be because although CNN groups Jews with Christians in the 'vote by religion' category, they nevertheless see Jews as more of an ethnic group than as a religious group--which allows them to view Jews more as a bloc.

In the New Jersey Jewish News, the editor had a column a few months ago about:

a recent Gallup poll that asked Americans how they felt about various religious groups. Surprisingly, Jews were the most popular of the 10 groups rated, not only scoring higher than Muslims and atheists, but higher than Catholics, Methodists, Baptists, Evangelical Christians, or Fundamentalist Christians (their categories).

The article gives other reasons for the result, but I think it may be because while religious groups can be perceived as being threatening to the American public at large, Jews are perceived more as an ethnic group than as a religious group.

In any case, Jews are a religious group and are not monolithic--and those same religious Jews who vote Republican are more likely to have larger families. And if that trend continues, it is only a matter of time before Jews as a group vote republican.

Also missing from the CNN poll--Muslims.
Although it is likely they are included in the religious group categorized as "Other," it is odd that Muslims are not mentioned explicitly in the poll, especially when they are increasingly visible and controversial.

Or is that the reason they are not mentioned?

Technorati Tag: Israel and Elections and Jews and CNN and Democrats and Republicans.