AS TWO STATE SOLUTION SOLIDIFIES: So what are the implications for Israel in the short term--expect a variety of pundits from all over (not to mention bloggers) to weigh.

Just to get you started, Arutz Sheva offers some benefit to Israel

A Hamas victory may work against it, Greenfeld explains, in that it is likely to turn the international community against it, will force Hamas to deal with administrative issues, will sharpen its dispute with Egypt, and more.

One specific ramification of a Hamas victory is that without Hamas recognition of the Oslo Accords, it cannot demand that Israel fulfill its Oslo-obligation to provide a land-corridor between Gaza and Judea. Fatah, however, does recognize Olso.

At the same time, there are those who think this situation is looking increasingly familiar:

With Hamas apparently on the verge of taking over Gaza, former IDF Generals are concerned that the area will turn into a Hizbullah-like "Hamastan" within reach of large parts of Israel.

According to Arutz7, possible reactions to include:

o a ground offensive and a need for the IDF to stay
o diplomacy--with reliance on targeted strikes on terrorists and relying on Egypt
o bringing in the UN (which Hamas has already rejected)

In addition to all this, summer is on the way with expectations that Hizbollah is going to put its new stash of weapons to use.
And who knows what Fatah will do from the West Bank to improve its own reputation.

So what will Olmert do?

As memories of the Six Day War recede into the background, probably nothing novel or daring--most likely the 'safe' route of diplomacy and targeted killings.

What do you think?

Technorati Tag: Israel and Hamas and Fatah and Palestinian Civil War.