Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Analysis Of Iran And Nuclear Weapons Misses The Point

Bret Stephens writes about The Bogus Iran Intelligence Debate and notes that the issue is not pinpointing when Iran is acquiring or close to acquiring nuclear weapons:
Bear that in mind as the New York Times reports that U.S. intelligence agencies are sure, or pretty sure, that Iran "still has not decided to pursue a weapon"—a view the paper says is shared by Israel's Mossad. The report echoes the conclusion of a 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that Iran put its nuclear-weapons program on the shelf back in 2003.

All this sounds like it matters a whole lot. It doesn't. You may not be able to divine whether a drinker, holding a bottle of Johnnie Walker in one hand and a glass tinkling with ice in the other, actually intends to pour himself a drink. And perhaps he doesn't. But the important thing, at least when it comes to intervention, is not to present him with the opportunity in the first place.
The point being that Iran has designs not only on the Middle East, but beyond and is consumed with the thought of becoming a world power.

But the threats and actions of Iran should be a warning that a nuclear Iran is no more stable and peaceful than is North Korea.

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