by Barry Rubin
There are three possible outcomes to the Syrian civil war:Continue reading Clearest and Briefest Possible Summary of the Situation in Syria
The most likely outcome: 1, continuation of status quo.
- Assad continues in power. This is bad as he is allied with Iran and Hizballah and attacks Israel through Lebanon. On the plus side, however, the regime will continue to be weak and unlikely to attack Israel directly. The regime will also continue to be anti-American in every way.
- Assad is overthrown by MB/Sunni Islamist dominated government. This is worse. Such a regime is likely to believe--mistakenly--that it can attack U.S. interests and Israel with impunity.
- Assad is overthrown by forces that lead to a regime of moderate, led by Sunni liberals, allied with Druze and Kurdish nationalists and with Christians. That would be better. Remember that only 60 percent of Syrians are Sunni Muslim Arabs and the Brotherhood has always been far weaker in Syria than in Egypt.
What should West do?
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader(seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East
(Wiley), and The Truth About Syria
(Palgrave-Macmillan). His latest book is Israel: An Introduction, was published by Yale University Press in January 2012. You can read more of Barry Rubin's posts at Rubin Reports, and Rubin Reports, on Pajamas Media
Technorati Tag: Syria and Assad.
1 comment:
There is zero likelihood of any Arab government at any time being 'moderate'. Unless of course by moderate you mean 'not quite as bad as the Dark Ages'. There is no third option. On the other hand neither of the other two are a lock either and an Arab state, really any Arab state is ALWAYS poised for a long period of absolute anarchy and civil war. Historically this tends to exist for about a decade followed by another era of fascist totalitarianism. Really, regardless of who or what winds up ruling Syria, these are the only two options and they will endlessly swing from one to the other.
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