Will Al Qaeda's Failure Be Hamas'?

Strategy Page has a brief piece entitled Why Al Qaeda Is Retreating From Iraq, Harold C. Hutchison writes:

Despite the many brickbats of the media, al Qaeda has been defeated in Iraq, and is now retreating to lick its wounds where it can. If it can. Just over four and a half years, al Qaeda has gone from being the dominant terrorist group in the world to a defeated shell of its former self. In trying to defeat the United States, al Qaeda made three big mistakes: They fought the last information war, they underestimated the American leadership, and they also managed to anger the Iraqi people.

The basic point is that Al Qaeda's strategy was to recreate images of Vietnam in Iraq, cause American support for the war to drop and ultimately force the US out.
Putting aside for the moment if Hutchinson is correct, I was wondering how his 3 points would apply, if at all, with Hamas.

Let's see. Here are Hutchinson's 3 points, with a summary of his explanation of each, with my take on the Hamas side of the issue. See if you agree.

o Fighting the last information war:

Al Qaeda: Unlike Vietnam, in the case of the Iraqi war, the MSM did not have a lock on access to the American people to create the image of losing the war. One reason wsa increased competition to CNN, especially Fox News--which has been fairly favorable in reporting on the war. Also, bloggers have provided an alternate view to what the MSM has been reporting

Hamas: In an odd reversal to the Al Qaeda situation, the previously pro-Israel view of the media is now pro-Palestinian. Thus, the MSM has spouted the pro-Palestinian line, with it's reluctance to use the 'T' word, using Palestinian stringers, and printing editorials and cartoons that take a decidedly pro-Palestinian view. For the moment, Hamas' refusal to recognize Israel, to commit to stopping the terrorist attacks, or to fulfill previous PA agreements have been a bump in an otherwise smooth road in the media's relationship with Hamas. Blogging provides pro-Israel information as well as more pro-Palestinian.

o Underestimating American leadership

Al Qaeda: Unlike Clinton, Bush came after Al Qaeda and did not fold

Hamas: Bush, who at one point was described by some as the greatest friend that Israel has ever had, has used one set of criteria in attacking Al Qaeda and another in pushing Israel to make concessions to support Abbas. The hands off attitude of the US towards Palestinian politics--as opposed to its efforts in Iraq--have put Hamas in power. Whether US can maintain the financial pressure on Hamas without the EU caving in remains to be seen. Aid from some Arab countries and Russia won't fill the gap.

o Angering the local population

Al Qaeda: The attempt to kill and intimidate Iraqis failed. They got became unpopular with Iraqis, and drew the Sunnis into the democratic process.

Hamas: While Hamas did kill Palestinians on 2 occasions last year as the result of "work accidents," they are not in the same boat as Al Qaeda--they have the support of the Palestinian people. This is subject to their ability to collect the funds to pay salaries. The opposition they do face is from Fatah, with talk of civil war surfacing now and then.

Perhaps there is no real reason to compare the two, but Hamas is still not home free. In another post, I suggested that the following problems face Hamas

o Cannot get the aid it needs to pay salaries
o There are Palestinians who are willing to kick Hamas out of the government if it cannot get the money needed
o Fatah still controls key areas of the government, such as security
o Fatah wants to oust Hamas
o Hamas cannot stop the firing of missles from Gaza
o There is some friction between the political and military wings of Hamas
o Hamas lacks experience in government
o Al Qaeda is looking to stir up trouble and is attracting members of Hamas

Hamas may yet make mistakes all its own.

Update:

On the other hand, perhaps Al Qaeda's bad habits are difficult for them to break:

Palestinian Authority officials here expressed deep concern over the weekend about reports that al-Qaida was planning to assassinate top PA leaders.

...Radical Palestinian groups have generally avoided issuing direct death threats against PA leaders, but PA leaders say that with the recent disclosure that al-Qaida has managed to establish cells in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, they feared that its members would target Abbas and other Fatah leaders.

..."We hereby declare that we have begun operating in Palestine," the leaflet said, heaping praise on Zarqawi and al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden. "We have deiced [sic] to revive the sunnah [one of the sources of Islamic jurisprudence] of slaughter against these people to avoid dissension."

To avoid dissension? Killing Moslems in Iraq also avoided dissension: by driving the Sunnis into the democratic process and against Al Qaeda--where does Al Qaeda expect to drive the Palestinian Arabs? Into the waiting arms of Al Qaeda? Hamas? or the US?

Technorati Tag: Israel and Hamas and Al Qaeda and Iraq and Palestinians and Bush.