Sunday, May 25, 2008

Is Syria Making Iran Nervous?

I read this on Pajamas Media, but I have trouble believing it:

The news that Israel and Syria had agreed to indirect talks was initially greeted with resounding silence in the Iranian press.Finally, on May 22 - a full day after the talks made international headlines - Tabnak news, which is affiliated with the former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezai, decided to break the story.

In a short piece describing the planned negotiations, it tried to calm Iranian concerns by saying that Syria had not agreed to break off relations with Iran as part of the price for peace with Israel, as called for by Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.

Iran’s worries are very valid. The economic prospects of peace with Israel, in terms of increased investment from US and EU, would easily outstrip anything Tehran could offer Damascus. This means that if Syria abandons Iran, Tehran would lose out on the massive amount of investment it has made in Syria since the early 1980s.

Is Syria really likely to make peace with Israel? Is the US ready to give Syria a bye on the Hariri investigation? Does Iran really have any reason to fear Syria becoming an ally of the West?

The US invited Syria to Annapolis, and I can imagine Condoleezza Rice welcoming Syria and forgetting about the assassinations and Syria's ties to Iraq--at best Syria would use that prospect only as leverage improve it's position in the Arab world, not jeopardize it by getting to close to Bush.

Read the whole thing.

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