Monday, August 20, 2012

Update Your Scorecard On Egypt -- Before Morsi And The Muslim Brotherhood's Next Power Grab

Barry Rubin writes about What Happened in Egypt, following the dizzying changes that have taken place in the past 12 months and the quantum changes in strategies, alliances and policies that have resulted.

Among just a few of the unpredictable zigzagging developments:
  • In February 2011 the Mubarak regime fell. There was going to be a parliament elected in Egypt. The parliament was elected. Its election was invalidated. Today there is no parliament in Egypt.
  • The Muslim Brotherhood said it would want to run one-third of the candidates for seats. Then they ran one-half. Then they ran all. Then they said they would not run a president. Then they did and elected a president. And they and the Salafists elected 70 percent of the parliament. But now there is no parliament.

  • The Parliament was going to pick a constituent assembly but to write a Constitution. But now there is no Constitution. There are no restrictions on presidential powers.
Rubin gives further examples -- but you get the picture.

While the Obama administration and the rest of the West ignore Morsi's power grab and the inevitable suppression of human rights and free speech, the Muslim Brotherhood continues its consolidation of power within the Egyptian government.

Naturally, there will be radical changes in the policies of the new Egyptian government.

Here are 3 of the ones Rubin mentions:
  • Current Egyptian Strategic Assessment Main threat  (End of Mubarak Regime) :
    Revolutionary Islamism in the form of Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists, al-Qaida, and Hizballah.

    MAIN THREAT end 2012):
    Israel, Moderate Arab States.

  • Arab allies 2011:
    Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Egypt wanted to help against Iran and Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood.

    ARAB ALLIES 2012:
    Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, Syria, Tunisia, Libya, etc.  Will get along with Saudis if give money and don’t interfere.

  • Israel 2011:
    Dislikes but understands shares common interests in battling Islamists of both Brotherhood-Hamas and Iran-Syria varieties as well as al-Qaida. Keep Hamas under control to avoid war and violence along border.

    ISRAEL 2012:
    Wipe off map, possibly including war, but certainly subversion and terrorism can be used against it; all Islamist and Arab forces should be mobilized and any negotiated solution blocked
Read the whole thing.

The radicalization of Egypt continues right before our eyes -- accelerated following the Sinai terrorist attacks that ironically were originally thought to weaken the Muslim Brotherhood.

Meanwhile, the West continues to try convincing itself that democracy in Egypt is only a heartbeat away.

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