Arlene Kushner on the Never-ending Farce of Obama's Policy in Syria

From Arlene Kushner:
February 16, 2014

Dealing with Farce

Sometimes, my friends, I take a look at one or another political/diplomatic situation, and I think, “This is just sooo outrageous.  So counter-intuitive in terms of how things ‘should’ be. How do I deal with it?”  Actually, on occasion it occurs to me that if a satirical film were made incorporating some of the events we are witnessing, critics would pan it as too far-fetched.  Such is the world about which I try, however humbly, to provide some perspective. 

Today I want to begin with the horrors to our north in Syria, where, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights [an anti-Assad group], the death toll from the civil war has now exceeded 140,000, including more than 7,500 children and over 5,000 women.

Read: Syria's death toll now exceeds 140,000

Why Do Christian Minorities Trust Ruthless Assad Over John Kerry?

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

The Simple Wisdom of Arab Dictators

by Raymond Ibrahim
FrontPageMagazine.com
February 7, 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3744/arab-dictators-christians

Raymond Ibrahim

After my recent articles documenting how the U.S. is the chief facilitator of Christian persecution in the Muslim world, I received an email from John Eibner, CEO of Christian Solidarity International, in which he made the following observation:

The sad fact is that the ruthless Assad dictatorship has a better record than the United States or its Sunni allies of protecting religious minorities in the Middle East. What Syrian Christian, Alawite or Druze in their right mind would trade the Assad's time-tested protection for the smooth words of a John Kerry, especially when they can see Sunni supremacist Saudis, Qataris, Turks and a motley array of jihadis over their shoulder?

A sad fact indeed.

Another Red Line For Obama? -- Syria Shipped Out Less Than 5% of Chemical Weapons

The Israel Project notes that Syria has shipped out less than 5% of its chemical weapons:

Syria retains the vast majority of its chemical arsenal, can likely weaponize biological agents, and has restored the pace of its missile production to pre-war levels, according to a stream of analysis and reporting published on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Jonathan Spyer: The Syrian Peace Process: An Exercise in Futility

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

The Syrian Peace Process: An Exercise in Futility

by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
January 24, 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3727/syrian-peace-process

The international conference that convened this week in the Swiss town of Montreux in an attempt to find a way toward resolving the war in Syria is one of the more strange international gatherings of recent years.

The aims of the combatant sides in Syria remain entirely irreconcilable.

Neither the Assad regime nor the rebellion against it is strong enough to strike a decisive blow against its opponent.

Neither side is sufficiently weak to feel compelled to accept whatever outcome its enemy wishes to impose on it.

In such a situation, diplomacy becomes reduced to the rituals of protocol.

Form replaces content. And the purpose of bringing the sides together becomes unclear.

Does Kerry Really Think Assad Ouster Would Assure Safety of Syrian Christians and Minorities?

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Kerry Boasts of 'Pluralistic' Syria Once Assad Gone

by Raymond Ibrahim
January 23, 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3725/pluralistic-syria

Raymond Ibrahim

U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, was recently interviewed about Syria. While many of his assertions can be debated, one especially requires a response. Throughout the interview, he repeatedly insisted that, if Bashar Assad would only leave power, everything would go well — especially for all of Syria's minorities.

In his words: "I believe that a peace can protect all of the minorities: Druze, Christian, Ismailis, Alawites — all of them can be protected, and you can have a pluralistic Syria, in which minority rights of all people are protected."

Elsewhere in the interview, Kerry declared that "The world would protect the Alawites, Druze, Christians, and all minorities in Syria after the ousting of Assad."

The problem here is that we have precedent — exact precedent. We've seen this paradigm before and know precisely what happens once strongman dictators like Assad are gone.

As demonstrated in this article, in all Muslim nations where the U.S. has intervened to help topple dictators and bring democracy, it is precisely the minorities who suffer first. And neither the U.S. nor "the world" do much about it.

Daniel Pipes: Yes, Support the Syrian Rebels

The following by Daniel Pipes is reposted here with permission:

Yes, Support the Syrian Rebels

by Daniel Pipes
December 19, 2013
Cross-posted from National Review Online, The Corner

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2013/12/yes-support-the-syrian-rebels

In April 2013, I published an article with the slightly inaccurate title, "Support Assad." Better would have been "Support Whichever Side Is Losing in the Syrian Civil War." Back then, it seemed that the regime of Bashar al-Assad was doomed; but already a month later, that was no longer the case and eight months on, a consensus has emerged that Assad is slowly winning.

Assad Ends 2013 Much Better Than When He Started

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

With Help From Tehran and Moscow, and Inaction by the U.S., Assad Is Poised To Stay

by Jonathan Spyer
Tablet Magazine
November 13, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3670/syria-assad-iran-russia

As the Syrian civil war grinds on toward its fourth year, no end appears in sight. It is the greatest disaster in the Levant in a generation: More than 115,000 people have died. Around 2 million refugees have departed the country—for Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and beyond—while untold more who have left their homes remain in Syria, seeking with increasing desperation to put themselves and their families out of reach of the guns.

But while the war appears far from ending, its direction and likely outcome have shifted significantly in the past year.

The Failure To Topple Syria's Assad and the Decline of US Power in the Middle East

The following by Eyal Zisser is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

The Failure of U.S. Policy toward Damascus

by Eyal Zisser
Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2013, pp. 59-65 (view PDF)

The failure of the Bush and the Obama administrations to topple Syria's president Bashar al-Assad goes a long way to explaining Washington's declining Middle Eastern position. United by a distinct lack of vision, as opposed to hopes and wishful thinking, as well as determination and a coherent plan of action, these otherwise very different administrations helped erode America's stature in the region. Widely seen as a declining superpower that has lost belief in itself and its leading role in the world, Washington earns neither fear nor respect in the Middle East.

Don't Forget About Syria's Alliance With North Korea

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

Assad's North Korean Connection

by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
November 1, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3658/assad-north-korea

Reports have emerged this week indicating the presence of North Korean military personnel in Syria. They note that 15 North Korean helicopter pilots are operating on behalf of the Assad regime within the country.

The reports have been validated by the pro-rebel but usually reliable Syrian Observatory for Human Rights . They are also not the first evidence that Pyongyang is actively involved on the ground in the Assad regime's war effort.

Is Partition the Best Long-Term Solution to the Violence in Syria?

The following by Gary C. Gambill is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

Partitioning Syria

by Gary C. Gambill

Foreign Policy Research Institute
October 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3650/partitioning-syria

Gary C. Gambill

After two-and-a-half years of steadily metastasizing violence in Syria, the harsh reality is that the country isn't going to become a stable, unified state again in the foreseeable future, let alone a remotely democratic one. It may be time to start thinking about alternatives.

Syria has already fragmented into increasingly well-defined enclaves. A multiplicity of Sunni Arab rebels control large swaths of the north and east, while the regime is dominant in the capital and major cities, the largely non-Sunni coastal provinces, and a corridor connecting them. Kurds control small border areas in the far northeast. The Druze, heavily concentrated in southwest Syria, have formed militias to fend off rebel incursions, while tending otherwise toward neutrality.

Although the rebels are likely to eventually bring down the minoritarian regime of President Bashar Assad, as Michael O'Hanlon helpfully analogizes, the fall of Damascus will "no more end the war in Syria than the overthrow of Saddam in 2003 brought stability to Iraq." Pro-regime forces will fall back toward the coast, Kurds and Druze will fortify their enclaves, and the Sunni rebels will fight each other to reclaim what's left of the Syrian capital.

Abbas Edges Closer To Syria's Assad -- Does Not Bode Well For Kerry's Middle East Peace Talks

Khaled Abu Toameh writes that Abbas, Hamas, Flirting With Syria's Assad. However, while Hamas -- which has seen its once promising relationship with Egypt on the skids -- has been slow to get back into Assad's good graces, Abbas has been more successful.

The reasons for making up with Syria extend beyond mere political gain:

Despite Kerry's Glowing Praise of Assad, Full Removal of Syria's Chemical Weapons Is Unlikely

The following by Jonathan Spyer is reposted here with permission of Middle East Forum:

Despite Nobel Prize, Full Removal of Syria's Chemical Weapons Unlikely

by Jonathan Spyer
PJ Media
October 16, 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3647/syria-chemical-weapons-removal

The first reports emerging from the effort to relieve the Assad regime of its chemical weapons capacity suggest that the regime is cooperating with the inspectors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). The latter organization has been tasked by the United Nations with overseeing the process of destroying Assad's CW capability.

The process is set to involve two distinct stages. In the first and more straightforward phase, Syria's ability to produce chemical weapons will be removed. In the second phase, Syria's actual stockpiles of chemical weaponry are to be destroyed. The first phase of the mission is intended to be completed by November 1. The second phase is likely to take a lot longer.

The OPCW inspectors face a task of unparalleled complexity. Never before has a country in the midst of civil war offered up its chemical weapons capacity to international review and destruction. It is not at all clear that the inspectors will succeed.

Arlene Kushner on Troubling Issues Surrounding The US-Russian Agreement on Syria

From Arlene Kushner:
September 16, 2013

More, Always More

There is much to follow through on, but first the joy:

Wednesday night begins the week-long holiday of Sukkot, the season of our joy.  It's my favorite holiday. We build and decorate sukkot, temporary structures in which we are supposed to live, depending on the protection of Heaven

Credit: lightofzion

And we daily do blessings (except for Shabbat), waving a lulav -- (from the left in the picture) willow, palm, and myrtle, held with an etrog -- citron. 

Credit: jewishjournal

A time of celebration and gratitude and faith.  A time of family and fun.  It is because this is a time of joy that we sing Hallel -- a collection of psalms of praise.

Hey!  I feel easier already, anticipating this.

Perhaps I'll post again tomorrow (and perhaps not); there will then be a hiatus of some days, although I may post in the middle of the Sukkot week.

Here I wish all celebrating Sukkot a Chag Sameach.

~~~~~~~~~~

I have no desire to repeat the major points made yesterday with regard to Obama, Russia and Syria. But there will need to be regular follow up on-going.  Here I share some additional insights and new information.  This material makes the situation look worse and worse...

Unresolved Issues -- And Missing References To Syria's Biological Weapons -- Remain in US-Russia Agreement

Until all the loose ends involved in the US - Russia agreement on Syria are tied up and resolved, there are still questions that remain.

On the one hand, ABC News points out that there are still unresolved issues on the US-Russia Agreement on Syria Weapons:

• There is not yet any indication that the Assad government will agree to the agreement, which contains requirements not found in the normal criteria listed in the Chemical Weapons Convention Syria agreed to join under pressure from Moscow.

Arlene Kushner Explains How Unserious Obama's Agreement With Putin and Assad Really Is

From Arlene Kushner:
September 15, 2013

Who Are They Kidding?

I knew before going into Yom Kippur that a US-Russian deal for disarming Syria would be reached in Geneva while I and fellow Jews were observing Yom Kippur.  And so the news I picked up last night did not take me by surprise.  But it did sadden me immeasurably.

Thus do I ask: Does ANYONE really believe this deal is serious? 

~~~~~~~~~~

Gary C. Gambill: Beware Syrians Bearing Gifts

The following by Gary C. Gambill is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

Beware Syrians Bearing Gifts

by Gary C. Gambill
Foreign Policy Research Institute
September 2013
http://www.meforum.org/3610/syria-chemical-weapons

Gary C. Gambill

It should come as no surprise that Syrian President Bashar Assad is adding new conditions to his government's recent pledge to relinquish control of its chemical weapons (CW) to international monitors, now that the immediate threat of U.S. air strikes has receded. Assad's CW arsenal is absolutely critical to his regime's survival – he won't give it up unless and until he can dupe the West into helping him achieve this end (if then).

The Syrian regime cannot hope to win the war through conventional warfare. The country's disenfranchised Sunni Arab majority has a fivefold demographic advantage over Assad's quasi-Shiite Alawite sect, which dominates pro-regime forces. Moreover, Syria is surrounded by hostile Sunni states and Assad lacks the manpower to plug its porous borders.

Obama's Problem: Putin and Assad Apply Alinsky's Rules Better Than He Does

Ever since the campaign leading up to the Presidential Election in 2008, much has been made of the lessons Obama has learned from community organizer Saul Alinsky's Rules for Radicals -- and Obama's expertise in utilizing them:

1. “Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have."
2. “Never go outside the expertise of your people.”
3. “Whenever possible, go outside the expertise of the enemy.”
4. “Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules.”
5. “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.”
6. “A good tactic is one your people enjoy.”
7. “A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag.”
8. “Keep the pressure on. Never let up.”
9. “The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.”
10. "The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition."
11. “If you push a negative hard enough, it will push through and become a positive.”
12. “The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative.”
13. “Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”

Yet if you look at his latest foreign policy fiasco, it appears that our enemies are doing a much better job of exploiting Alinsky's rule than the Obama administration is.

Daniel Pipes: Forget Syria, Target Iran

The following by Daniel Pipes is reposted with permission:

Forget Syria, Target Iran

by Daniel Pipes
The Washington Times
September 9, 2013http://www.danielpipes.org/13338/forget-syria-target-iran

Daniel Pipes

Here's advice to the members of the United States Congress as they are asked to endorse an American-led attack on the government of Syria:

Start your consideration by establishing priorities, clarifying what matters most to the country. The Obama administration rightly points to two urgent matters: stopping the Iranian nuclear buildup and maintaining the security of Israel. To these, I add a third: reestablishing the U.S. deterrent credibility laid low by Barack Obama himself.

Note that this list conspicuously does not mention the Syrian regime's chemical arsenal (the largest in the world) or its recent use. That's because those pale in horror and in danger by comparison with the nuclear weapons now under construction in Iran. Also, the attack in Ghouta, Syria, on Aug. 21 was appalling, but not worse than killing a hundred times more civilians through other means, including torture. Further, that attack breached multiple international conventions, but surely no one expects "limited strikes" to restrain desperate dictators.

How Obama Forced AIPAC onto His Syria-Bombing Bandwagon

The following by Steven J. Rosen is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

Pushed on the Bandwagon
Obama's Syria plan forced AIPAC's hand

by Steven J. Rosen
Foreign Policy
September 4, 2013

http://www.meforum.org/3604/obama-syria-aipac

Steven J. Rosen

President Barack Obama's decision to make Congress decide on the course of the Syrian intervention has put the pro-Israel camp just where it did not want to be: openly advocating American military involvement in the volatile Middle East. It's a calculation based on the lesser of two evils, the greater being risking Washington's withdrawal from leadership on global security just as Iran crosses the nuclear threshold. No one has a greater stake in a strong United States -- and the credibility of America's deterrent capability -- than Israel and the Jewish people. Indeed, many of the arguments that motivate the president's opponents on Syria could also apply in the event that a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities becomes necessary.

Yet this is a debate about the American national interest, and most American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) supporters do not want it to degenerate into a debate about Israel. Most agree with former Israeli Ambassador Itamar Rabinovitch that, "It's bad for Israel [if] the average American gets it into his or her mind that boys are again sent to war for Israel."

Anne Bayefsky: Obama Pushes Syria Intervention With Same Argument He Ignores On Iran

For Immediate Release: September 01, 2013

Contact: info@humanrightsvoices.org Follow us on Twitter

Obama Pushes Syria Intervention With Same Argument He Ignores On Iran This article by Anne Bayefsky originally appeared on Breitbart.com. President Obama has turned to Congress to save him from staggering political isolation on the global stage. It is an isolation that is the inverse of the promise of a passionate and reciprocal multilateral embrace that carried him into office. Asking Republicans to rescue him from a foreign policy catastrophe entirely of his own making is not a neat political trick. It dramatically cheapens the office of commander-in-chief. Contrary to the President’s devious portrayal, therefore, the coming vote is so much more than a response to “this attack” or “the massacre” in Syria.