Nasrallah Has Presented His Conspiracy Theory--What Do The Lebanese Think?

Nasrallah has now openly accused Israel of murdering Rafik Hariri back in June 2005, claiming that Israel wanted to create instability in Lebanon--this in his defense over the impending report that will allegedly find Hezbollah as the perpetrators of Hariri's death.

Of course, such a theory doesn't do anything unless the Lebanese--and the world--buy Nasrallah's explanation.

According to Ha'aretz, Nasrallah has no smoking gun tying Israel to Hariri murder, but that doesn't mean the the Lebanese people won't eat up this sort of story:

The speech received widespread and often enthusiastic coverage in the Arab world, especially from Al Jazeera. But in Lebanon itself, it met with some skepticism: Mohammad Kabbara, a member of parliament from the anti-Syria March 14 faction, said it would convince no one but its authors. And Amin Gemayel, a Christian leader, said it contained no proof, and Nasrallah ought to share all his information.

Nasrallah showed intercepted photographs from Israeli drones taken near Hariri's house and that of his brother, along with documentation of intensive Israel Air Force activity on the day of the murder, as if all this were a smoking gun. It wasn't particularly convincing, but that is less important than Al Jazeera's enthusiastic adoption of it.

In the Arab world today, Al Jazeera's support is as good as a court verdict, and is likely to be seen by many Arabs as proof positive of Israel's guilt.

This solution is also convenient for many Lebanese, as Hezbollah's indictment for the murder could lead the country into another civil war - as Nasrallah himself has repeatedly hinted.

Michael Totten, who has visited Lebanon on many occasions agrees that the Lebanese will be wary of Nasrallah's convenient explanation and thinks Hezbollah Can’t Pin Hariri Murder on Israel:

I’ve been working in Lebanon on and off for years, and I’ve never once met a single person who thought Israel murdered Hariri. Not even the Hezbollah officials I spoke to before they blacklisted me thought so. Once in a while I met a Hezbollah supporter who said he didn’t know who killed Hariri and silently left open the possibility that Israel might have done it, but that’s the furthest even any of them were willing to go.

Hariri was one of the least anti-Israel Arab leaders on earth. His vision for Lebanon was one of peace and prosperity, not terrorism and war. Jerusalem had no reason at all to want him out of the picture. The Syrian- and Iranian-led Resistance Bloc, on the other hand, needed him out of the way, dead, or at least suppressed.

This all leaves Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri--son of the murdered Rafik Hariri--in a difficult position: Syria and Iran of course want him to ignore the findings of the inquiry while on the other side is the US, which is already angry over last weeks ambush of the IDF and is currently withholding aid to Lebanon as a result.
(This is not to mention that the PM would supposedly like to see his father's murderers brought to justice.)

With Al-Jazeera in Nasrallah's cheering section and the threat of renewed violence from Hezbollah should the inquiry find Hezbollah responsible, it may not matter what the Lebanese people may privately think.

After all, they welcomed the return of Samir Kuntar, who murdered a 4 year old girl.


Technorati Tag: Rafik Hariri and Nasrallah and Lebanon and Hezbollah.