Syrian Protests Have Hezbollah In A Quandary

The unprecedented revolt threatening the government in Syria has placed key ally Hezbollah in a tight spot and prompted the Lebanese militant group to adopt a more measured attitude.

Hezbollah's margin of maneuver is currently very limited because the strategic Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis is threatened by the revolt and this forces the group to act prudently
Paris-based Middle East expert Agnes Levallois, quoted in Daily Star, Hezbollah on edge in face of Syria revolt

Prudent is not a word I would ordinarily use to describe Hezbollah, but it might apply here. Hezbollah has apparently been caught off-guard by the protests in Syria, after apparently assuming that the Syrian regime would deal with it quickly.


Now, Hezbollah is in a tricky situation on how to deal with the Syrian protests:

"But with the revolt showing no signs of dying down, Hezbollah is realizing that it needs to protect itself by commenting little on the situation in Syria so as not to be at odds with what is happening on the ground and not to alienate itself," she added.

The party, blacklisted as a terrorist organization by Washington, has adopted the Syrian regime's official line in blaming the unrest on armed extremist gangs and outside agitators.

This has prompted anger among protesters in Syria who, in what would have been unthinkable a few months ago, have torn down and burned pictures of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, according to images posted on YouTube.

Hezbollah in particular has to be careful on how it reacts to the Syrian protests--both publicly and behind the scenes--because the fate of Assad's government will impact the supply of weapons Hezbollah receives from Iran via Syria, and so far Hezbollah is estimated to have more than 40,000 short- and medium-range missiles.

"If there is chaos, a new regime or a continuation of the current regime, which has been weakened, all of these scenarios don't bode well for Hezbollah," he added.

The party's image has also been dented given its support for the other revolutions shaking the Arab world, including Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, but not Syria.

"Nasrallah is torn between his support for Assad's regime and his image as a resistance leader keen on defending the people's rights," Levallois said.

The original assumption was that in order to divert from the protests in Syria and the ruthless way Assad's regime was dealing with it, Hezbollah would create a 'distraction' by attacking Israel. Now, according to analysts, that is not an option. Due to the current weakness of the Syrian regime, such an attack would backfire on Syria.

The current unrest in Syria, combined with Hezbollah's own financial problems, will keep Hezbollah relatively quiet for now.

But that quiet will not last.

Technorati Tag: Syria and Hezbollah.