Wednesday, September 07, 2011

Iran Is Not The Only One Trying To Increase Its Influence--Here Comes Turkey!

We know that Iran claims to be sending a submarine and a warship to the Red Sea in order to "convey the message of peace and friendship to all countries."

At the same time it looks like Turkey is feeling equally magnanimous in sharing its naval forces in the Middle East and offering to escort ships looking to break Israel's blockade of Gaza:
"The eastern Mediterranean will no longer be a place where Israeli naval forces can freely exercise their bullying practices against civilian vessels," a Turkish official was quoted as saying.
And while they're in the area, Turkey is improving its ties with Egypt:
Erdogan's intention is to extend Turkey's influence to areas it has not reached in past decades.
Maybe it's just a coincidence that Turkey is getting friendly with Egypt at the same time that  Iran is working on increasing it's influence in Egypt by improving relations with the Muslim Brotherhood.


Two such friendly countries, offering help and friendship around the Middle East!


Except in Syria.






Iran is backing the Syrian regime in its efforts to quash the protests.

Yet though it borders Syria and has had friendly ties in the past--Turkey has urged Syria not to use violence against the protesters.

Syria is a sore point for Iran, and according to Walter Russell Mead, Syria may be Iran's Achilles Heel:
...Iran is joined at the hip to the most hated regime in the Arab world. Turkey seems to be making a bid to pull Hamas away from its Syrian-Iranian allies; losing its connection to the radically-chic wing of Palestinian resistance will undercut Tehran even more. The Assad regime is damaged goods now, hated and scorned across the Arab world — but Tehran needs it more than ever.
And there is Turkey, apparently taking advantage of Iran's weakness and getting close to Iran-puppet Hamas.

That might explain Ahamdinejad's phone call to Hamas leader Meshaal.

In fact, according to Mead, not only is Iran not as strong as many assume, but the constellation of forces opposed to Iran may serve as a justification of the US Iraq war:
Many critics of the Iraq War pointed to Tehran’s apparent gains across the region as proof that the strategy was deeply flawed; in fact the realignments taking place across the region these days suggest that Iran is being pushed toward the fringes of Middle East politics. With Turkey more of a factor than before, and Saudi Arabia and its allies focused on their Shi’a religious and political archrivals, there is less room for Iranian meddling than the mullahs had hoped. Nothing lasts forever in the kaleidoscopic world of the Middle East, but for now Iran will have to face the critics of its nuclear program with fewer allies and less ability to summon public opinion to its side.
The claim that Iran and its ambitions are being held in check may be going a bit far, but the fact remains that a lot is going on in the Middle East aside from the protests across the Middle East.

And if some of that helps to contain Iran--so much the better.

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