Is Iran Becoming An Also-Ran As A Power In The Middle East?

Iran may pride itself on its nuclear program and the influence it will allow it to wield, but by the same token--Iran now finds itself backtracking on its support of its key ally Syria:

...on Thursday, President Ahmadinejad of Iran became the most recent, and perhaps the most unexpected, world leader to call for President Assad to end his violent crackdown of an uprising challenging his authoritarian rule in Syria.

When the Arab Spring broke out, upending the regional order, Iran seemed to emerge a winner: its regional adversary, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, was ousted from power and its most important ally, Syria, was emboldened.

But the popular demands for change swept into Syria, and now, as Mr. Assad’s forces continue to shoot unarmed demonstrators, Iran sees its fortunes fading on two fronts: its image as a guardian of Arab resistance has been battered, and its most important regional strategic ally is in danger of being ousted.

Iran has been accused of providing financial aid for the Assad regime in the crushing of the protesters and arms if not snipers as well. The fact that now Iran has increased the volume on its calls for Assad to talk to the protesters may be a sign that Iran sees that the status quo is not helping its image as a Muslim leader.

The Assad regime is a key ally of Iran, both in the Muslim world in general and especially as the means by which Iran transfers arms to Hezbollah. Losing that bridge would undercut Iran's ambitions as to be a major power in the Middle East.

So Iran's deteriorating image is becoming a major problem:

Syrian protesters take it as a matter of faith that security forces from both Iran and Hezbollah have been drawn into the fray, trading cellphone videos that are said to show Hezbollah fighters streaming across the border in black S.U.V.’s.

And there must also be the concern in the Iranian regime that continued protests in Syria could very well reignite the protests in Iran.

According to a poll done by James Zogby, the decline in Iran's popularity and influence already started a few months ago:

Executive Summary:

This is an Arab American Institute poll with analysis by James Zogby. It was conducted during then first three weeks of June by Zogby International. Over 4,000 Arabs were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5% in Morocco, Egypt, KSA; and +/- 4.5% in Lebanon, Jordan, UAE.

Findings:

• Most Arabs look askance at Iran's role across their region, with substantial majorities seeing Iran playing a negative role especially in Iraq, Bahrain and the Arab Gulf.

• Iran's favorable ratings have dropped significantly in recent years. It is seen as not contributing to "peace and stability in the Arab World" and there is scant support for Iran's nuclear program.

• Significant majorities desire that the Middle East become a "nuclear free zone". When asked if
they "had to choose one nation other than Israel to be a nuclear power in the Middle East" - for
most Arabs, Egypt is the preferred choice, followed by Turkey.

• There is regional support for the GCC's new and more assertive role in Bahrain, Yemen, and in their concern with Iran's nuclear program.

• Lebanon's attitudes toward Iran differ from the rest of the region, revealing a troubling
sectarian divide.

• Overall, Turkey receives the highest favorable ratings in most Arab countries, with the U.S.
Receiving the lowest rating in every country but Saudi Arabia, where Iran is lowest.

Note: In previous polls, when Arabs were asked questions about Iran or its nuclear program, and the U.S. and its threats of sanctions or military action were a part of the question, Arabs would indicate strong support for Iran and its defiance on nuclear issues. The more negative attitudes toward Iran reflected here may be accounted for by the fact that in this survey Arabs are being asked to state their attitudes toward Iran without reference to the U.S. and/or that Iran's regional behavior has succeeded in alienating Arab opinion.

All of this runs contrary to the impression--and fear--that the removal of US forces from the region play directly into Iran's hands, especially with its acquisition of nuclear power.

The question is whether we are ready to rely on such a survey, especially since Iran has no intention of fading into the background.

Technorati Tag: Iran and Syria and Middle East.