OH BY THE WAY, SYRIA HAS INVADED LEBANON. Just saying. Michael Totten writes:

Syria Invades Lebanon

A few days ago Lebanese daily newspaper Al Mustaqbal quietly reported a limited Syrian invasion of Lebanon. (Via Naharnet.)

Syrian troops on Thursday reportedly have penetrated three kilometers into Lebanese territories, taking up positions in the mountains near Yanta in east Lebanon's Bekaa Valley.

The daily Al Mustaqbal, citing sources who confirmed the cross-border penetration, did not say when the procedure in the Fahs Hill overlooking Deir al-Ashaer in the Rashaya province took place.

The sources said Syrian troops, backed by bulldozers, were fortifying positions "in more than one area" along the Lebanese border, erecting earth mounds and digging "hundreds" of trenches and individual bunkers.

This happened immediately before I left town for two days. When I returned I was surprised to find no mention of this whatsoever anywhere else in the media. I assumed the story had to be false. How could Syria invade three kilometers into any region of Lebanon without triggering a diplomatic and media storm?

So I asked Michael Young, opinion page editor at Beirut’s Daily Star, if the story was bogus.

“It is true,” he said, “but the problem is that the 3 kilometers are in isolated areas, so that it isn't making headlines. However, the UN will be discussing border issues this week, I think, and that will be brought up. The Syrians are ratcheting up the pressure, but with the attack against UN troops in the south, they are, as one UN official put it, playing with fire.”

If Israel sent the IDF three kilometers into Lebanon and started digging trenches and building bunkers it would make news all over the world. But Syria does it and everyone shrugs. Hardly anyone even knows it happened at all.

Or cares.
This goes into the same category as Palestinians killing other Palestinians.

Check out MEMRI, which has excerpts from Arab media indicating things are going to heat up in Lebanon around July 15.

[Hat tip: Instapundit]

Technorati Tag: Israel and Syria and Lebanon and MIchael Totten.

Video of Actual IDF Combat in Lebanon

Hat Tip: Hot Air

Michael Totten is guest-blogging at Andrew Sullivan's blog, where he links to a video you should see:

Israeli video journalist Itai Anghel went into Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon with the Nahal Brigade and shot 25 minutes of riveting house-to-house combat footage with a night vision lens.

The Hezbollah fighters wore Israeli uniforms.

Note: To watch the movie, copy and paste the url below into a new window. For some reason it won't work if you click on it.

http://switch248-01.castup.net/cunet/gm.asp?ClipMediaID=209947&ak=63628786

The movie is very, very intense.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Hezbollah and Hizbollah and Lebanon and IDF.

Hezbollah's Defeat This Wednesday

Michael Totten in War Warps the Mind a Little writes about the ability in Israel to get used to the sounds of the Katusha rockets:

You will twitch. You will want to take cover. You will want to hide. You will feel like you could die at any second, like the air around you is drenched with gasoline, like the universe is gearing up to smash you to pieces.

It’s amazing how fast you get used to it, even if you have no military training and grew up in a tranquil conflict-free place in suburban America.

It took me four hours.

I was wondering about that. It's one thing to be there and get used to it; it is another to know that Israel is being attacked--has been attacked and will be attacked in the future--and make Aliyah.

I received the following email from Jacob Richman:

On Wednesday, August 16, history was made when 520 olim
arrived in Israel on three Nefesh B'Nefesh flights. The flights
from Canada, the United States and England marked a new record
in Aliyah from the West.

Hundreds of guests, including myself, were on hand to greet the
new olim. The excitement was everywhere and you knew that
history was unfolding before your very eyes.

He posted 276 pictures of this on his website.

Totten writes:

...We all know fear is contagious. What might be less understood is that calm is also contagious. It’s hard to even want to freak out when no one else is freaking out.

There is something else in the air that is contagious.
And it is the reason that Hezbollah may have won the battle, but will lose the war.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Aliyah.

Nasrallah Is Feeling The Heat

While Nasrallah is now vowing that he will fire missiles even deeper into Israel--even beyond Haifa--he apparently has also become more cautious:

Anticipating the ground assault, Nasrallah sought to ensure his group’s survival and safeguard its widening base of support in Lebanon and abroad by lowering the bar for what would constitute victory in a television interview broadcast Friday. He defined victory as a successful defense, but was not more specific.

According to the Washington Post, Nasrallah was more specific:

"Victory in this case does not mean that I will enter and conquer the north of Palestine," he said. "If the resistance survives, this will be a victory. If its determination is not broken, this will be a victory."

Of course Nasrallah is helped by the fact that he is defining his version of victory after Israel has already made public that their goal in Lebanon is to clear Hizbollah out of the area and seriously degrade their infrastructure--but not to destroy them. [Update: Now that Israel has rejected the army's recommendation for a larger-scale ground offensive, Nasrallah's ability to claim victory is all but assured ]

Not only has Nasrallah lowered the bar on how he defines victory, he apparently has also lowered the bar on how he defines martyrdom as well:

“We love martyrdom,” he has said in the Friday interview. “But we take precautions to deny the enemy an easy victory.”

Maybe there is a connection...?

Of course Iran wants to make sure that Nasrallah does not appear to be too cautious, so they came out publicly to deny the rumors that Nasrallah has been hiding out in the Iranian embassy--though they did not respond to speculation that the kidnapped Israeli soldiers may be there. [Update: Now a Kuwaiti newspaper is reporting that Nasrallah is in Damascus and the Jerusalem Post has more]

On the other hand, the admission by Mahmoud Komati, deputy chief of Hezbollah's political arm, that Hizbollah did not see Israel's response coming makes Nasrallah look careless, and worse:

"The truth is _ let me say this clearly _ we didn't even expect (this) response.... that (Israel) would exploit this operation for this big war against us," said Komati.

Such an odd admission--which might, as Powerline suggests, be a ploy to exploit the "disproportionate use of force" angle--might also add fuel to the anger of those Lebanese who feel that Nasrallah is destroying their country.

One of those is Lebanese Druze Leader Walid Jumblatt who responded to an interviewer's suggestion that Nasrallah is considered a hero by the Arabs:

"Great, so he's a hero. But I'd like to challenge this heroism of his. I have the right to challenge it, because my country is in flames.

If Jumblatt really wants to challenge Nasrallah, he is going to have to wait in line--assuming anyone can find him.

UPDATE:
According to Haaretz:

An Israel Defense Forces analysis of the messages transmitted by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to his men during the fighting in Lebanon reveals a slightly different tone from the one he took in three public television interviews in the same period and in an interview with the Lebanese newspaper A-Safir.

A senior officer said Nasrallah took a less bellicose position when engaging in his internal dialogue in his organization, than in his appearances in the Arab media - but he remained aggressive.

Nasrallah's tone is apologetic in his messages and he explains that Israel escalated the confrontation by striking deep inside Lebanon after the soldiers were abducted, the officer said.

Nasrallah admits that his organization is having morale problems and says his group will receive support and encouragement.

He adds that not only Hezbollah, but also Israel, has been badly hit.

He also complains frequently that the Arab states have deserted Hezbollah and the Lebanese and are not helping them against Israel.

In The Nasrallah Blues, Captain's Quarters gives his impressions on what this means:

It also sounds like Nasrallah had to make an accounting of his actions in order to convince his men to continue their fight. Having a commander communicate an apology of this sort indicates a growing dissatisfaction with leadership in the ranks. Nasrallah so far has done nothing to convince anyone that he has a grasp of either strategy or tactics. He has proven that he has no understanding of his enemy, nor much of his putative allies in the region, almost all of whom have declined to rush to his side in this fight.

Nasrallah had better have a victory to show them soon, or he may find himself replaced with wiser counsel.

And the momentum for pushing Nasrallah out may come from inside, not out. Michael Totten writes about what may happen in Lebanon after the smoke clears and Israel leaves:

My sources and friends in Beirut tell me most Lebanese are going easy on Hezbollah as much as they can while the bombs are still falling. But a terrible reckoning awaits them once this is over.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Nasrallah and Lebanon and Hizbollah and Hezbollah.

My 6-Year Old Daughter Has Hizbollah Nailed

We are currently working on finishing painting my 6-year old daughter's room before the 9 days. She wants a Tinkerbell theme, in case you're interested. While we were painting, my daughter walked and when we turned around to look at her, she was wearing goggles, a face-mask, and holding a hammer. Daughter: I'm a soldier! Me: What's a soldier? Daughter: He fights mean people. Me: And why do you have a hammer? Daughter: To nail them! I have no idea where she gets her ideas from, and she has no idea what is happening in Israel right now, but she has a point. I imagine that historically, most wars were fought over territory and power. I may be mistaken, but I don't believe that we generally find throughout history that the goal of war was to obliterate an enemy--as we do in the stated goal of Iran and their proxie Hizbollah. And there is more than just that. Over at The Corner, Jonah Goldberg recounts some past Hizbollah exploits. Among them:

In January 2004, Hezbollah planted five camouflaged "improvised explosive devices" (IED's) inches on the Israeli side of the border with Lebanon, fifteen miles inland from the Mediterranean coast. Israeli troops detected the IED's and notified (as per the truce agreement in effect since the end of the 1967 Six Days' War) the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), "peacekeepers." A UNIFIL engineer certified the existence of this gross violation of the truce, and "requested" that Hezbollah remove the bombs. Hezbollah declined, stating that as the mines were (just barely) inside the "Zionist" border, Israel could perform the removal itself. The IDF dispatched an armored bulldozer to carry the mines off for safe disposal. This required making a 90-degree turn from the Israeli access to the narrow border trail. Slowly making this turn, the left front corner of the Israeli bulldozer unavoidably had to occupy, for a couple of seconds, about one cubic meter of air space on the Lebanese side of the "blue line" between the two countries. During those seconds a Hezbollah fighter launched an anti-tank missile at the narrow windshield of the bulldozer. The pinpoint strike, which our Israeli sources concede required uncommon training and skill, killed the 21-year-old Russian immigrant driving the bulldozer, Jan Rotzanski. This diabolical murder was widely celebrated by Hezbollah as a confirmation of its desire to kill "Zionists" on any pretext. IDF Northern Command soldiers remain embittered by this killing (and by UNIFIL's indifference to it) eighteen months later.

In a post entitled On the Rim of a Volcano written back in May, Michael Totten writes about a visit to the Israeli-Lebanese border:

Eitan pulled off the main road and into his peach orchard next to the fence.

"Lots of drug fields right across the border right here," he said. Hezbollah uses the drug money to purchase weapons to use against Israel. "Across the border are mostly Shia.

Just to put this into perspective, before the House of Commons in Ottawa, Dr. Rachel Ehrenfeld, Director of the American Center for Democracy testified:

Concerning illegal drugs, since the mid-1980s Hezbollah has used illicit drugs as a major funding source and weapon against the west. An official Iranian fatwa ruled: “We are making these drugs for Satan America and the Jews. If we cannot kill them with guns, so we will kill them with drugs.”...In Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, Hezbollah controls approximately 13,000 acres that produce at least 300 tons of hashish annually, most of which is exported to Europe. This high-quality Lebanese hashish grosses Hezbollah $180 million annually. Hezbollah-run laboratories, refining tons of heroin, are estimated to bring in some $3 billion annually.

So much for the Taliban who outlawed opium because it was "against Islam". To claim that Hizbollah has some sort of legality as part of the Lebanese government is absurd. They are terrorists and worse, a scourge not only of Israel, but of the US, and of Europe as well. As my daughter says, "they are mean"-- in a way that cannot be negotiated.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Hezbollah and Hizbollah and Lebanon and Iran.

Where Do The Lebanese Stand?

The only reason Hezbollah has lost its popularity in Lebanon is because Israel has withdrawn its armed forces. Lebanese don't like Israelis occupying their land any more than they like Syrians occupying their land.

Michael Totten, On the Rim of a Volcano

So how exactly do the Lebanese feel about Israel and Hizbollah--and to what degree will the Lebanese see Israel as their rescuers?

On the one hand, you have the American trapped in Lebanon who emailed Instapundit that

The Lebanese people seem to be more than turned off by Hizbollah. Their fears are greater, however, that the Lebanese government would turn entirely against Hizbollah. This lies in the fact that they trust the Israelis to hit fewer civilian targets more than they trust a desparate renegade Hizbollah on their soil. There is a lot of fear over another civil war.

On the other hand you have the counter-point to that very same emailer that you have to be

Careful about anecdotes about the Lebanese people being turned off by Hizbollah. There is a 99% chance that this emailer was not talking to Shiites, was not in shiite neighborhoods in Beirut, and was not in the Shiite south of Lebanon. I don’t know this for a fact, but I feel confident that the shiite community by and large is not turned off by Hizbollah. There is no "Lebanese people." That's why civil war is always just under the surface.

Keep in mind Lebanon's responsibility as set forth by the UN. Honest Reporting reminds us of:

UN Security Council Resolution 1559 of September 2004, which referred back to Resolution 425, called "upon all remaining foreign forces to withdraw from Lebanon"; "for the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias"; and supported "the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory".

Syria eventually complied with 1559 and removed its occupying forces. However, the Lebanese government has not disarmed Hezbollah nor has it sent its armed forces to secure southern Lebanon and the border with Israel.

In addition, Hezbollah is actually part of the Lebanese government, which contains two Hezbollah members in the Cabinet. The Lebanese government, therefore, cannot abstain from responsibility for the actions of a part of its own leadership.

What are other Lebanese saying?

Lebanese Political Journal:

We have no sympathy for Israel's position right now. None.

We have sympathy for the Israeli civilians being hit by Hezbollah bombs, but there is no justification for Israel's action. It's abusive. The United States did not hit civilians or civilian escape routes out of the country like this when invading either Afghanistan or Iraq.

Israel made its statement. We cannot tolerate any more. We understood what they were doing. We understood why they needed to do it. But now, there is no sympathy left. Hezbollah is not a mortal danger to you. It has the potential to be, but we Lebanese have been trying to change that internally, through UN resolutions and peacefully.

The bombing has gone on for too long. It's too fierce. Hezbollah has lost morale. The Shia have lost morale. The Lebanese have lost their country.

This is a fight Israel cannot win. Everyone in Lebanon knows that Hezbollah cannot win, including Hezbollah. There is nothing Israel can do to get the soldiers back through force. But this isn't about soldiers or Israeli defense any more.

You've made this country unliveable for the people fighting to disarm Hezbollah.

Guess what? I'm leaving. Yep. Me.

Where am I going? Syria. Didn't want to, but I have to. The people we marched against are the ones you sent us begging to. The people who assassinated our leaders, kept us from having an operating democracy, and who armed Hezbollah are laughing it up because they've won the game because of you.

In another post, the same blogger writes in To Everyone Who Thinks Israel's Campaign is Just Fine and Dandy:

...We pushed against Hezbollah to disarm the entire time. Some were bigots who made sectarian slurs. We kept our Hezbollah sympathetic friends and worked to changed their minds peacefully, as we know better than anyone outside of Lebanon the strange twists that sectarianism gives to every issue and how a terrorist organization can be the only hope for people who've suffered tremendously. The State Department and the White House understood this, too, which is why they cut the Lebanese government slack in disarming Hezbollah. They knew it was impossible to do immediately on multiple levels.

...We had a National Dialogue in which we were trying to prevent war by making all parties amenable to change. This was after Hezbollah froze the government and kept the country in political limbo for months.

Is this not enough for you? What the hell more were we supposed to do? Honestly, what more?

Jamal's Propaganda Site writes:

Olmert's bet on a sectarian uprising or infighting breaking out and taking care of Hezbollah for them seems less likely to materialize with each passing air raid. We're divided and we hate each other, but one thing that brings all together is the Israeli war machine. Most of us have felt their crimes first hand and memories die hard. Others still hold grudges against Israel for using them and then leaving them out to dry. Hezbollah will have to answer a few questions when all is said and done, but we will not do Israel's dirty work. We're not that dumb.

From Beirut to the Beltway writes about Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's address on Saturday:

Siniora condemned the unjustified Israeli aggression on Lebanon and held Israel responsible for the humanitarian catastrophy. Most importantly, he said the "Lebanese state will not rise if it is the last to know." He reiterated that he did not condone Hizbullah's operation (he did not call Hizbullah resistance). He said "only the state has the right to make war decisions."

With this, Lebanon's prime minister has officially pulled the plug on Hizbullah. Yet his government is weak, which is why he asked for UN help.

Who else could Lebanon turn to? The first step was taken. Hizbullah is illegal in the eyes of the Lebanese cabinet. Next: UN must step in to help the Lebanese government, weakened after decades of Syrian hegemony, to take the country back.

Michael Totten adds:

Israel has a right - nay, a moral obligation - to defend itself and rescue the kidnapped. But what kind of down-the-rabbit-hole war is this, where the guilty parties - the Baath regime in Syria and the Jihad regime in Iran - sleep warm in their beds while Beirut, a libertine city they hate, takes the punishment for them?

...The Middle East was in a holding pattern until two days ago. No one knew what would happen next, what the next big thing would be. Now we know. The democracies suffer and bleed and turn on each other while their enemies, our enemies, sit back and watch. The Baath regime and the Jihad regime rest easy knowing that Israel is too cautious or gutless to take the fight to the source and chooses to hit the country of the Cedar Revolution instead.

Maybe the most accurate description of the situation is the YNet News headline:

Lebanese hate Israel, upset at Nasrallah

Condemnation from Europe is to be expected.

But if those Lebanese opposed to Hizbollah are represented by the sentiments expressed above, then the criticism voiced so far may be nothing compared to the condemnation that may be awaiting Israel down the road in the UN--and it will take it's toll.

Who is to judge whether Israel's response if disproportionate or not?

According to the Wall Street Journal:

Since hostage-taking is universally regarded as an act of war, what "proportionate" action do they propose for Israel?

In the case of Hamas, perhaps Israel could rain indiscriminate artillery fire on Gaza City, surely a proportionate response to the 800 rockets Hamas has fired at Israeli towns in the last year alone. In the case of Hezbollah, it might mean carpet bombing a section of south Beirut, another equally proportionate response to Hezbollah's attacks on civilian Jewish and Israeli targets in Buenos Aires in the early 1990s.

What else can Israel do in response to Hamas and Hizbollah?

Israel's choice is: damned if you do, dead if you don't.


Technorati Tag: Israel and Lebanon and Hizbollah and Hezbollah.

Arutz Sheva; Hizbullah Attacks in the North; Two Soldiers Missing

Back in April, Michael Totten wrote “Everything Could Explode at Any Moment”:

The lieutenant was easily ten years younger than me. But he was so ground down from world-weariness he sounded like a man 30 years older who hadn't slept for three days.

“Any minute now something huge could break out," he said. "I am afraid to go home and leave my soldiers. When Hezbollah decides to do something, they do it. And they’re pretty good at it.”

"What do you think they'll do next?" I said.

“I have no idea," he said. "They could do anything. Kidnapping. Sniper.”

See also Part II, On the Rim of a Volcano

Meanwhile, Israel At Level Ground has a podcast with an exclusive interview with Dr. Eran Lerman (IDF Col. - res.), former deputy chief of IDF strategic intelligence planning. Among the issues discussed: Is Israel on the brink of a multi-pronged hot war with Lebanon, Hizbullah, Syria and the Palestinians?

Hizbullah Attacks Northern Israel; Two Soldiers Missing
17:05 Jul 12, '06 / 16 Tammuz 5766
by Nissan Ratzlav-Katz, Ezra HaLevi and Baruch Gordon

Three soldiers were killed, two kidnapped and several injured along the Lebanese border in a multi-pronged attack by Hizbullah terrorists on IDF positions Wednesday morning.

Lebanon's Al-Manar television station claimed that the two soldiers were taken captive by the Hizbullah attackers. Al-Manar is the on-air mouthpiece for the Lebanese terrorist group. Qatar-based Al-Jazeera also reported that Hizbullah attackers struck Israeli military outposts, taking captive two IDF soldiers at around 8:30 Wednesday morning. An IDF spokesperson later confirmed the reports of the missing personnel.

With information of the kidnapped soldiers, air force planes took to the air, striking bridges and escape routes in southern Lebanon in an effort to prevent the Hizbullah from taking their Israeli captives deeper into enemy territory.

Around 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, explosives and mortar shell attacks by Hizbullah on IDF positions, patrols and civilian targets along the Lebanon-Israel border injured at least eleven people and facilitated the kidnapping of two soldiers. An IDF spokesperson said that one of the injured was in serious condition as a result of attacks on two military vehicles. Those injured were ferried by helicopter to the Rambam Hospital in Haifa and to the hospital in Nahariya. Residents of the northern town of Shlomi were ordered into bomb shelters shortly after the first explosions were reported.

Unconfirmed, but reliable, sources say that seven Israelis were killed in the Hizbullah attack.

Details of the incident indicate that an army tank hit a land mine or a roadside bomb, trapping soldiers inside, in addition to a Hizbullah mortar shell that struck two Hammer jeeps. Rescue efforts were delayed because of fears that the area was mined with more explosives planted by the terrorists.

IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz stated that "the period of quiet" has ended for Hizbullah in Lebanon. Military sources said that the Israeli retaliation to the Hizbullah attack and apparent kidnapping of IDF soldiers will be extremely strong.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said, "These are difficult days for Israel and its citizens," adding that there are forces trying to test Israel's resolve. "They will fail and will pay a heavy price for their deeds," said the prime minister. He spoke to reporters Wednesday morning, as he hosted Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who is visiting the region.

In reaction to events along the Lebanese border and to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Knesset Member Aryeh Eldad (National Union) called on the government Wednesday morning to carry out a "war in Lebanon and Gaza to destroy terrorist organizations." MK Eldad said that the abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and the Hizbullah attacks this morning "again prove that it is impossible to run away from terror."

Also see:

Haaretz on the kidnapping.

Jerusalem Post: PM Olmert declares Hizbullah attack 'act of war' by Lebanon

YNet: Right-wing parties seeking emergency gov't:

War atmosphere in Israel, and as on the eve of 1967 Arab-Israeli war calls being made for national unity government; 'I'm not dealing with this at the moment,' Olmert says

Technorati Tag: Israel and Hizbullah and Hezbullah and Shalit.

Palestinian Survey And Apologists Are Polls Apart

For those who say that the election victory of Hamas was not due to an agreement with Hamas' politics, but rather just an end to corruption, there is a Palestinian poll out that says otherwise.

Here is a summary from Daily Alert, prepared for the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs:

Palestinian Poll: 61% Say Hamas Should Reject Recognizing Israel

In a poll conducted 31 May-2 June 2006, 1,200 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza were asked: Which of these two directions do you support? Hamas continues to reject recognizing Israel, while reaching out to countries like Iran and the Arab world to get funding - 61%; Hamas recognizes Israel and continue to receive funding from the international community - 31%.

What is your evaluation of the performance of Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh? Good - 57%. Mahmoud Abbas? Good - 48%. Since the [Hamas victory in the] PLC elections of January 2006, do you feel that your family income has: Improved? - 2%, Declined? - 63%. Since the elections, do you feel: More secure? - 14%, Less secure? - 41%. (Birzeit University Development Studies Program-PA)

Are the results of the poll reliable? I don't know. Michael Totten records the impressions he got when he spoke to Palestinian Arabs in The Other Side of the Green Line:

“The economy here looks a lot better than I expected,” I said to Sufian.

“It was pretty good until Hamas was elected,” he said. “But look in the stores. Notice there are no people in them. The only things people are buying are food and cigarettes. Only the basics. They are afraid to spend money if they have it.”

-----

“Who did you vote for?” I said.

“I voted for Fatah,” he said. “I’m not affiliated with them. They are just a good party to run things. I don’t think Hamas is ready for power. In some things I agree with Fatah, in some things I don’t. Even though they are corrupt, at least we had money. People are boycotting Hamas so now we are poor. We anticipate things will eventually get better, but we don’t have time.”

-----

“What has changed since Hamas came to power?” I said.

“Business,” he said. “The economy dropped down dramatically. Without industry they cannot boost the economy. We import everything from China. We support Chinese workers. We need our own industry.”

Other results from the poll:

16.How do you evaluate the role of the following parties in leading to the current crises? Did they play ……. in leading to the crisis?

95.7% said Israel had a primary role

47.4% said Hamas had no role at all

26.Do you believe that preachers in mosques play a positive or a negative role in dealing with the current crisis?

58%said a positive role (interesting considering the videos available of what is preached in those mosques.)

46.Which of the following political groups do you support?

Fateh 35.7%

Hamas 32.7%

Doesn't the response to that last question imply that although they support the Hamas policy of rejection, they don't seem to see much difference in the policies of Hamas and Fateh? And that though Palestinian Arabs may support the policy Hamas is following in rejecting Israel, they don't necessarily think Hamas is doing a particularly good job in following it?

Technorati Tag: Israel and Palestinians and Hamas and Fatah.

You Know Things Are Tough When The Arabs Boycott The Palestinians

And it's even worse when Arabs threaten to boycott the Arabs who are boycotting Palestinian Arabs.

Haaretz was reporting on May 15 that:

The prominent and popular Islamic scholar Dr. Yusuf al-Qaradawi threatened on Thursday to issue a religious edict mandating a boycott of Arab and Islamic banks that refuse to transfer monetary aid to the Palestinians. This was the desperate cry of a cleric watching a nearly complete Arab boycott in operation, this time not against Israel, but against Palestine.

Even granting that it was reported even earlier that the US was giving in to pressure to provide humanitarian aid to Palestinian Arabas, the Haaretz article claims that what makes the boycott against Hamas work is not the US threat--which was ineffective in the past in preventing European and Arab countries from aiding Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gadhafi--rather it is the Arab attitude towards Hamas itself:

The difference is that Hamas is now perceived as unwilling to cooperate with the official Arab position adopted at the Beirut summit - the Arab League resolution adopting the two-state principle and the 1967 borders. Arab states, particularly Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are demanding a greater effort from Hamas. They are not prepared to accept the possibility that the movement now leading the country that represents Arab unity might rebel against an Arab decision. The "loss" of Palestine into radical religious hands, especially with Iraq inching out of the Arab framework, therefore necessitates restraining action that will bind Hamas's Palestine to the Arab ranks.

Meanwhile, though the US has expressed a willingness to go along with the idea of sending aid--bypassing Hamas--to the PA for humanitarian needs, this also may not be such a clear-cut decision. Fatah and Hamas attacking each other and Al Qaeda on the scene cannot be making the US eager to invest more money into the bottomless pit known as the PA. One US official is quoted as saying:

"If Hamas has money to finance its people, who are riding about in cars and brandishing rifles, it should use it to pay teachers and doctors," he said. "Who's paying for their gas?"

"The Hamas government is the one that ought to take care of its workers," he continued. "We have never paid the salaries of Palestinian Authority employees, and there is no reason for us to do so now."

Meanwhile, the boycott of Hamas is taking a toll. Some Palestinian Arabs are losing faith in Hamas. In The Other Side of the Green Line, Michael Totten interviews some Palestinian Arabs:

“The economy here looks a lot better than I expected,” I said to Sufian.

“It was pretty good until Hamas was elected,” he said. “But look in the stores. Notice there are no people in them. The only things people are buying are food and cigarettes. Only the basics. They are afraid to spend money if they have it.”

-----

“Who did you vote for?” I said.

“I voted for Fatah,” he said. “I’m not affiliated with them. They are just a good party to run things. I don’t think Hamas is ready for power. In some things I agree with Fatah, in some things I don’t. Even though they are corrupt, at least we had money. People are boycotting Hamas so now we are poor. We anticipate things will eventually get better, but we don’t have time.”

-----

“What has changed since Hamas came to power?” I said.

“Business,” he said. “The economy dropped down dramatically. Without industry they cannot boost the economy. We import everything from China. We support Chinese workers. We need our own industry.”

If the US has what it takes to at least not free up all funds to Hamas, combined with the fear in the Arab world of what Hamas might do by instituting Sharia--maybe something can be accomplished.

But don't hold your breath. Apparently besides the White House being skittish on Olmert's 'Convergence Plan,' they are planning on giving Olmert some homework to do:

The administration is also very concerned by the deteriorating situation in the territories and fear that it could eventually cause the PA to collapse, which Washington views as highly undesirable. Administration officials therefore plan to insist that Olmert present ideas on how to prevent the PA from degenerating into total chaos.

After the US took a hands-off attitude toward bringing the Palestinian Arabs to Democracy, it is left to Israel to deal with the mess.

Israel never gets a breather.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Hamas and Olmert and Totten.

Totten on Israeli Arabs

Friday, Michael Totten put up a post on Israeli Arabs

The Palestinians of 1948

JAFFA and JERUSALEM - There are more Arabs in Israel than there are in Beirut. One Israeli in five is an Arab. They aren’t Israeli Jews. Nor are they the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza. They were born and raised in Israel. They carry Israeli passports. They have full rights of citizenship. They vote in Israeli elections, and they field their own candidates in Israel’s parliament, the Knesset. They don’t clamor for a state of their own, nor do most of them wish to join a Palestinian state once it is born. They hardly - ever - have anything to do with the terrorism campaigns waged by Yasser Arafat’s Fatah, Islamic Jihad, or Hamas. They are the lucky ones who were not driven out, who did not flee to the wretched refugee camps of Lebanon, Egypt, and Syria during the Naqba - the creation of Israel - the “catastrophe.” They are Israeli Arabs, the Palestinians of 1948. And they are almost completely invisible and forgotten outside of Israel.

It's another illuminating post where he talks to a number of Israeli Jews and finishes off with an interesting conversation with an Israeli Arab.

Totten concludes:

Israelis are not what I would call friends with the Palestinians of 1948. But they aren’t enemies either, though they once were. Making peace with the Palestinians of 1967 will not be easy, to say the least, especially when Hamas is the government in Ramallah. But there’s nothing eternal about Arabness and Jewishness that makes it forever impossible.

Go take a look at what Totten has found out about what Israeli Jews and Arabs say about each other.

At the end of the article there is a button to click on if you want to make a donation that will enable Totten to continue these sorts of reports.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Israeli Arabs and Michael Totten.

Totten on the Israeli-Lebanese Border

“They are watching you right at this second,” the lieutenant said. “You are definitely being photographed. It’s possible you’re being watched through a sniper rifle.”

In “Everything Could Explode at Any Moment”, Michel Totten reports about a visit to the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Lebanon and Israel technically have been at war for many decades. But Israel and Lebanon have never actually fought any battles. Israel has been involved in plenty of fighting in Lebanon, but none of it ever involved the Lebanese army or government. Neither side has ever actually fired on the other. Neither side wants to. All Israel’s Lebanon battles were waged against the PLO and Hezbollah.

...The rhetoric that comes out of Beirut in Arabic rarely has anything to do with reality. The Lebanese government regularly affirms its "brotherhood" with Syria, its former murderous master that still knocks off elected officials and journalists. Undying loyalty to the Palestinian cause is constantly trumpeted, even while Lebanon treats its hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees worse than neglected zoo animals. Arab Nationalism is another regular theme, even though Arab Nationalism is more dead in Lebanon than in any other country around.

Totten's visit to Israel is more than just to relate stories about meeting Israelis and showing the human side to the country. On this occaison, at Israel's border with Lebanon, he saw first hand what developed into breaking news about Iran's latest move in their war on Israel:

“What’s happening here is very unusual," Zvika, the Israeli Defense Forces Spokesman, said. But he wouldn't tell me what, exactly, was so unusual. Shortly after I left the country, a story broke in the Daily Telegraph that explained it.

Iran has moved into South Lebanon. Intelligence agents are helping Hezbollah construct watch towers fitted with one-way bullet-proof windows right next to Israeli army positions.

Here's what one officer said:

This is now Iran's front line with Israel. The Iranians are using Hizbollah to spy on us so that they can collect information for future attacks. And there is very little we can do about it.

Please read Michael Totten's entire article.
At the end of the article there is a button for supporting him through PayPal.

Michael Totten's next post will be about a visit to a kibbutz along the border and a look at some of Hezbollah's methods in keeping the hatred alive.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Michael Totten and Lebanon and Hezbollah and Iran.

Michael Totten in Israel

Michael Totten has been reporting from the Middle East for the past 6 months--but not in the same way as other reporters there. Totten has been conducting an experiment as a free-lance journalist on his own time, posting to his website and relying on reader contributions. He has been in Israel too, and if his readership responds favorably in supporting him, he plans to go back.

Yesterday, Totten put up his first post about Israel, “You Just Can’t Believe Anyone Hates You That Much”:

He writes about first impressions, starting with those from the air:

Arab countries have a certain feel. They’re masculine, relaxed, worn around the edges, and slightly shady in a Sicilian mobster sort of way. Arabs are wonderfully and disarmingly charming. Israel felt brisk, modern, shiny, and confident. It looked rich, powerful, and explicitly Jewish. I knew I had been away from home a long time when being around Arabs and Muslims felt comfortably normal and Jews seemed exotic.

First impression are just that, though. They tend to be crazily out of whack and subject to almost instant revision. Israel, I would soon find out, is a lot more like the Arab and Muslim countries than it appears at first glance. It’s not at all a little fragment of the West that is somehow weirdly displaced and on the wrong continent. It’s Middle Eastern to the core, and it has more in common with Lebanon than anywhere else I have been. The politics and the history are different, of course. But once I got settled in Tel Aviv I didn’t feel like I had ventured far from Beirut at all.

The rest of the post is his time spent sitting and talking with Lisa Goldman--a journalist who made aliyah and has been writing for the Guardian lately--about life in Israel and specifically about "The Conflict."

“Hamas propaganda requires dehumanization,” she said. “When you meet someone face to face you become a real person. Then they can’t hurt you.”

But some of them can. The worst of them do. It takes a special kind of moral, emotional, and physical bravery to venture regularly into the West Bank and Gaza - as an Israeli civilian - and forge meaningful lasting friendships with people who say they want to destroy you. Lisa does it. I like to think I would, too, if I were Israeli. But I honestly don’t know if I could, not if I lived through the terror and rage of the intifada as she did. That’s one reason I wanted to meet her.

Take a look at Totten's site.
Read what he's been writing.
See what you think.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Michael Totten.

If I Will Not Do PR For Myself...

There is a common complaint about hasbarah and pro-Israel PR. We are critical of Israel's apparent lack of willingness to put together a concerted PR effort, especially when compared with what the pro-Palestinian camp is able to accomplish.

These days it seems that terrorists of all stripes are getting more and more media savvy. Michael J. Totten writes in his Middle East Journal about meeting a member of Hezbollah, and quotes a friend who writes, in part:

We know that Hezbollah is undermining Lebanon. We know Hezbollah carries out atrocious operations to kidnap and kill Israel soldiers defending an international recognized border, which even the Lebanese and Syrian governments recognize. We know that Israel has a right to exist. But that's not the issue here.

The issue is Michael's visit to Hezbollah press officers. Ask yourselves this, Why would an organization intent on killing random foreign journalists have an English language press office? To lure them in? Or to try to indocrinate them and have them write pro-Hezbollah articles in the Western press?

Hezbollah was very successful with Helena Cobban (see her article DA). Why shouldn't they try to recruit more Western cheerleaders?

If these terrorists are learning the benefits of smiling for the camera instead of kidnapping people and chopping off heads while earning recognition as the voice of Lebanon, this raises the question of how are we doing with our own cheerleaders.

In England, according to The Jerusalem Report, the answer seems to be that we are not doing too well. Their article describes the efforts of StandUp4Israel--described as a young group of media professionals--to overhaul the current pro-Israel PR efforts in England:

StandUp4Israel's thesis is that British Jewry has utterly failed to address the anti-Zionism bordering on anti-Semitism they say has become institutionalized in both British media and society throughout five years of the intifada... And all this time anti-Semitism has been soaring, with 532 incidents recorded last year, a 42-percent increase from 2003.

So StandUp4Israel has been engaged in the PR battle. But their battle has turned out to be against other Jews, led by Marc Cave, an advertising executive:

The 40-year-old Cave, whose Drugstore agency represents clients like Napster and Coca-Cola, wants to see hard-hitting ads in national newspapers, pro-Israel billboard posters and a 60-second cinema clip, all designed free of charge by the award-winning ad men he has recruited. But communal leaders remain convinced that such an in-your face approach - previously tried in the United States on cable TV, with debatable success, by Jewish advocacy groups - is entirely inappropriate in the United Kingdom.

...The real reason for such community negativity, he charges, is a generational one - a conflict between young, proud, angry Jews and an older leadership that has so successfully integrated into the British establishment they are terrified to take a stand that might upset anyone.

..."Politics has changed," he says. "We live in a focus-group culture where the people in power make decisions based on what the bloke in the street thinks."

This kind of in-your-face approach is appealing there in the UK. What about in the US? I would be curious if there is a similar tension when it comes to hasbarah in the US. And when the article says that the an in-your-face approach in the US had "debatable success," it would be helpful to know by whose measurement and how they figured that out.

While we are used to the idea that, regardless of who is president, we can count on the Congress to back Israel, the fact is that the PR battle is being fought in the trenches, namely in the universities--where future senators, congressmen, and other leaders in the US are going to come from. Also, there is the battle for the hearts and minds of people in general, who are flooded by the words, images, and their interpretation, as presented by the media.

Plus, now with the appearance of the blogosphere, there is a whole new area of opinion in which to do battle.

Are we really aware of all of our options and pulling out all the stops?

Technorati Tag: Israel.