Where Do The Lebanese Stand?

The only reason Hezbollah has lost its popularity in Lebanon is because Israel has withdrawn its armed forces. Lebanese don't like Israelis occupying their land any more than they like Syrians occupying their land.

Michael Totten, On the Rim of a Volcano

So how exactly do the Lebanese feel about Israel and Hizbollah--and to what degree will the Lebanese see Israel as their rescuers?

On the one hand, you have the American trapped in Lebanon who emailed Instapundit that

The Lebanese people seem to be more than turned off by Hizbollah. Their fears are greater, however, that the Lebanese government would turn entirely against Hizbollah. This lies in the fact that they trust the Israelis to hit fewer civilian targets more than they trust a desparate renegade Hizbollah on their soil. There is a lot of fear over another civil war.

On the other hand you have the counter-point to that very same emailer that you have to be

Careful about anecdotes about the Lebanese people being turned off by Hizbollah. There is a 99% chance that this emailer was not talking to Shiites, was not in shiite neighborhoods in Beirut, and was not in the Shiite south of Lebanon. I don’t know this for a fact, but I feel confident that the shiite community by and large is not turned off by Hizbollah. There is no "Lebanese people." That's why civil war is always just under the surface.

Keep in mind Lebanon's responsibility as set forth by the UN. Honest Reporting reminds us of:

UN Security Council Resolution 1559 of September 2004, which referred back to Resolution 425, called "upon all remaining foreign forces to withdraw from Lebanon"; "for the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias"; and supported "the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory".

Syria eventually complied with 1559 and removed its occupying forces. However, the Lebanese government has not disarmed Hezbollah nor has it sent its armed forces to secure southern Lebanon and the border with Israel.

In addition, Hezbollah is actually part of the Lebanese government, which contains two Hezbollah members in the Cabinet. The Lebanese government, therefore, cannot abstain from responsibility for the actions of a part of its own leadership.

What are other Lebanese saying?

Lebanese Political Journal:

We have no sympathy for Israel's position right now. None.

We have sympathy for the Israeli civilians being hit by Hezbollah bombs, but there is no justification for Israel's action. It's abusive. The United States did not hit civilians or civilian escape routes out of the country like this when invading either Afghanistan or Iraq.

Israel made its statement. We cannot tolerate any more. We understood what they were doing. We understood why they needed to do it. But now, there is no sympathy left. Hezbollah is not a mortal danger to you. It has the potential to be, but we Lebanese have been trying to change that internally, through UN resolutions and peacefully.

The bombing has gone on for too long. It's too fierce. Hezbollah has lost morale. The Shia have lost morale. The Lebanese have lost their country.

This is a fight Israel cannot win. Everyone in Lebanon knows that Hezbollah cannot win, including Hezbollah. There is nothing Israel can do to get the soldiers back through force. But this isn't about soldiers or Israeli defense any more.

You've made this country unliveable for the people fighting to disarm Hezbollah.

Guess what? I'm leaving. Yep. Me.

Where am I going? Syria. Didn't want to, but I have to. The people we marched against are the ones you sent us begging to. The people who assassinated our leaders, kept us from having an operating democracy, and who armed Hezbollah are laughing it up because they've won the game because of you.

In another post, the same blogger writes in To Everyone Who Thinks Israel's Campaign is Just Fine and Dandy:

...We pushed against Hezbollah to disarm the entire time. Some were bigots who made sectarian slurs. We kept our Hezbollah sympathetic friends and worked to changed their minds peacefully, as we know better than anyone outside of Lebanon the strange twists that sectarianism gives to every issue and how a terrorist organization can be the only hope for people who've suffered tremendously. The State Department and the White House understood this, too, which is why they cut the Lebanese government slack in disarming Hezbollah. They knew it was impossible to do immediately on multiple levels.

...We had a National Dialogue in which we were trying to prevent war by making all parties amenable to change. This was after Hezbollah froze the government and kept the country in political limbo for months.

Is this not enough for you? What the hell more were we supposed to do? Honestly, what more?

Jamal's Propaganda Site writes:

Olmert's bet on a sectarian uprising or infighting breaking out and taking care of Hezbollah for them seems less likely to materialize with each passing air raid. We're divided and we hate each other, but one thing that brings all together is the Israeli war machine. Most of us have felt their crimes first hand and memories die hard. Others still hold grudges against Israel for using them and then leaving them out to dry. Hezbollah will have to answer a few questions when all is said and done, but we will not do Israel's dirty work. We're not that dumb.

From Beirut to the Beltway writes about Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's address on Saturday:

Siniora condemned the unjustified Israeli aggression on Lebanon and held Israel responsible for the humanitarian catastrophy. Most importantly, he said the "Lebanese state will not rise if it is the last to know." He reiterated that he did not condone Hizbullah's operation (he did not call Hizbullah resistance). He said "only the state has the right to make war decisions."

With this, Lebanon's prime minister has officially pulled the plug on Hizbullah. Yet his government is weak, which is why he asked for UN help.

Who else could Lebanon turn to? The first step was taken. Hizbullah is illegal in the eyes of the Lebanese cabinet. Next: UN must step in to help the Lebanese government, weakened after decades of Syrian hegemony, to take the country back.

Michael Totten adds:

Israel has a right - nay, a moral obligation - to defend itself and rescue the kidnapped. But what kind of down-the-rabbit-hole war is this, where the guilty parties - the Baath regime in Syria and the Jihad regime in Iran - sleep warm in their beds while Beirut, a libertine city they hate, takes the punishment for them?

...The Middle East was in a holding pattern until two days ago. No one knew what would happen next, what the next big thing would be. Now we know. The democracies suffer and bleed and turn on each other while their enemies, our enemies, sit back and watch. The Baath regime and the Jihad regime rest easy knowing that Israel is too cautious or gutless to take the fight to the source and chooses to hit the country of the Cedar Revolution instead.

Maybe the most accurate description of the situation is the YNet News headline:

Lebanese hate Israel, upset at Nasrallah

Condemnation from Europe is to be expected.

But if those Lebanese opposed to Hizbollah are represented by the sentiments expressed above, then the criticism voiced so far may be nothing compared to the condemnation that may be awaiting Israel down the road in the UN--and it will take it's toll.

Who is to judge whether Israel's response if disproportionate or not?

According to the Wall Street Journal:

Since hostage-taking is universally regarded as an act of war, what "proportionate" action do they propose for Israel?

In the case of Hamas, perhaps Israel could rain indiscriminate artillery fire on Gaza City, surely a proportionate response to the 800 rockets Hamas has fired at Israeli towns in the last year alone. In the case of Hezbollah, it might mean carpet bombing a section of south Beirut, another equally proportionate response to Hezbollah's attacks on civilian Jewish and Israeli targets in Buenos Aires in the early 1990s.

What else can Israel do in response to Hamas and Hizbollah?

Israel's choice is: damned if you do, dead if you don't.


Technorati Tag: Israel and Lebanon and Hizbollah and Hezbollah.