Monday, February 02, 2009

Who ISN'T Losing As Gaza War Continues?

On the Israeli side, the biggest loser would seem to be Ehud Barak--as Shmuel Rosner lays it out:
Politically speaking - and 10 days before election day politics is king - the attacks create a whole new problem for Labor’s Ehud Barak, now in the midst of a fight to recover his party’s credentials. It is still too early to know if the Gaza op was a huge success, a minor success, a failure, or a huge failure. Barak initially called the increased hostility from Gaza a “dead-cat bounce,” but has since threatened a “disproportionate response” to the rocket fire.

If the war was a success - Barak is the one getting the credit. If there’s doubt - there’s less credit from which to benefit. And every rocket attack casts some more doubt, this helps Likud’s Binyamin Netanyahu and Israel Beiteinu’s Avigdor Lieberman.
By the same token, if Hamas is able to continue firing rockets into Israel--is there any way that Livni does not look bad as well?

On the other hand, on the Palestinian side--who is looking worse: Hamas or Fatah?

Maybe Fatah. Abbas comes out on Sunday condemning the rockets fired at Israel--
However, it was Abbas's own Fatah terrorist wing, the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, which took responsibility for firing a Kassam and mortars on the western Negev Sunday morning.

...Hamas has said it needs $2 billion to rebuild the area, but virtually all Western countries refuse to give it a cent. On the other hand, Abbas has been weakened by staying out of the limelight during the war in Gaza and even using the opportunity to arrest and in some cases torture Hamas supporters in Judea and Samaria.

"Abbas seems to be the biggest loser, seen as increasingly irrelevant by his people both in Gaza and the West Bank," the Associated Press reported Sunday.
That would seem to leave Hamas, which has still managed to smuggle in enough money to pay off each family which had their houses destroyed 4,000 Euros. That would seem to at least temporarily buy Hamas some time, but that only leaves them in control of the Gazans:
Hamas ostensibly is in full control of the Gaza region, but rival factions are increasingly challenging its jurisdiction as fallout continues following Hamas's severe losses during the IDF Operation Cast Lead counterterrorist campaign against its terrorist infrastructure.

...A growing rift between de facto Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh and his Iranian and Syrian financial backers also clouds the Gaza political skies. Syrian-based Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal Sunday repeated statements he made last week that the PLO as obsolete and called for a new national authority.
All in all, Netanyahu seems to be the only one not to have had his prospects clouded by the continuation of events in Gaza. Even George Mitchell can't be too happy with events which leave him with the question: how can every conflict have a solution if there is no one with the control necessary to take responsibility.

After all, Israeli concessions only go so far.

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