Hezbollah Could Be Poised To Take Control--For Lebanon's Own Good

The story from Now Lebanon is that the report that Hezbollah is prepared to take over large parts of Lebanon is disputed, but is not being dismissed out of hand

Within two hours of an indictment by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) against members of Hezbollah, the party will implement a non-violent scheme to “hold a security and military grip on large areas of Lebanon,” Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar reported Monday.


Two security analysts NOW Lebanon interviewed, however, said they believed the report was more of a political message than a clear blueprint for how Hezbollah would react if party members are indeed indicted as such a move would likely turn quite violent, regardless of the party’s intentions.

Shortly before Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave an October 28 speech in which he called on Lebanese officials to boycott the STL, according to the report, the party conducted a simulation that would involve its political and security forces holding “a grip on major cities in Lebanon, from the capital and the suburbs to the Kesrouan highlands and North Lebanon, as well as holding a grip on seaports and border crossings to prevent the escape of personalities.” The plan would be launched if party members are indicted, something expected in Lebanon that the court has neither confirmed nor denied.

Al-Akhbar said Hezbollah operatives would also arrest Lebanese officials wanted by a Syrian court for allegedly misleading the UN investigation into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and look for “those who tried to stir sectarian strife.” The simulation also included a siege of both the Grand Serail – the seat of government – and Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s downtown residence.

Even if Hezbollah is not contemplating an overt power grab, any attempt of exerting control in the face of an indictment would be considered a threat, regardless of how non-violent it might be:

“If such a thing happens, it would mean the collapse of the state and start of civil war,” Riad Kahwaji, CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, told NOW Lebanon in an email message. “Taking over government buildings and seizing houses and offices of officials is a violent act even if gunmen doing this don’t fire a bullet in the process.”

Retired Lebanese army General Elias Hanna, who now teaches political science at several universities, agreed that even if Hezbollah attempted to non-violently exert control over wide swaths of the country, “they cannot control the reaction.”

One reason why the threat of Hezbollah cannot be overlooked is the fact that they have resorted to violence before:

The last time Hezbollah and its allies took to the streets to pressure the government, they used weapons and easily routed mostly Sunni forces in West Beirut in early May 2008. The army and police (Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces) did not react to stop the violence, and indeed only stepped in once the fighting had more or less ended. This time, both Kahwaji and Hanna said, would likely be different, particularly if Hezbollah members were not armed during the operation.

Particularly if Hezbollah members were not armed during the operation--that's a nice touch--and wishful thinking.

The best that can be hoped for is that this whole story is just a warning from Hezbollah to protect its men and its interests.

And Iran's interests as well.

Technorati Tag: Hezbollah.