Good News: Palestinians Are "Growing Up"--And That Just Might Lead To Peace

In Israel, Ireland and the peace of the aging, Spengler writes that contrary to Obama--the actual Palestinian demographics are likely to lead to peace, not pressure for more unilateral Israeli concessions:

Sometimes, the best thing to do is nothing at all.

A generation from now, the Palestinians will make peace with Israel, for a simple reason: they will grow up - literally. Palestinian Arabs comprise one of the fastest-aging populations in the word.


United States President Barack Obama was misinformed when he told the America-Israel Political Action Committee May 22 that "the number of Palestinians living west of the Jordan River is growing rapidly and fundamentally reshaping the demographic realities of both Israel and the Palestinian territories".

In fact, Palestinian fertility on the West Bank has already converged on the Israeli fertility rate of three children per woman, if we believe the Palestine Ministry of Health rather than the
Palestine Authority's Statistics Bureau.

The alleged Palestinian demographics have been used for years as a way to justify all manner of concessions that Israel must make for peace to avoid the threat of Israel slowly turning into an Arab state. Taking into account the more accurate numbers turns the argument on its head--instead of a threat, the demographics are something far more promising:

There is endless debate about the Palestinian population numbers. Israel's peace party has advanced the "demographic argument" for years, and has been consistently wrong. The decisive data point is that Palestinian Arab fertility has plunged and, in consequence, the Arab population will age rapidly. That augurs well for peace, a generation from now. After three-quarters of a century of warfare, starting with the 1937 Arab uprising against British rule in Palestine, it's not a hardship to wait one more generation.

In this regard,the Northern Ireland peace agreement of 1998 is worth revisiting.

Read the whole thing.

You know, someone really should tell Obama about this, because he won't hear about this from Rahm Emanuel, who in his piece in the Washington Post just repeats what his former-boss says about the numbers.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Demographics and Palestinians.