Syria's Assad: "Time Is On My Side" (Update: The Weathervane May Be Shifting)

Time is on my side, yes it is
Time is on my side, yes it is

Now you always say
That you want to be free
But you'll come running back (said you would baby)
You'll come running back (I said so many times before)
You'll come running back to me

Oh, time is on my side, yes it is
Time is on my side, yes it is
Rolling Stones, Time Is On My Side

While some are predicting the Fall of the House of Assad, others are predicting that Assad will be able to ride out the storm with a little help from his friends:

Syria seems unmoved by both Erdogan's remarks and by the UN Security Council, where he has the full backing - and the threat of their veto of any anti-Syrian resolution - of China and Russia. Their support enables Assad to continue to characterize his violent suppression of demonstrations and shooting of protesters as an "internal Syrian matter" or the work of "armed gangs," and to claim that any international intervention is a plot to destroy the regime.

Assad is counting on the army eventually suppressing the demonstrations--regardless how long they drag on. While Turkey has publicly called for an end to "atrocities" and other Arab countries may sever ties, Assad figures he can still count on Iraq, Iran and Russia.

Besides, Assad feels confident that he will not have to face the kind of international military operation that Gaddafi is having (successfully, so far) to deal with. After all, all that Syria is having to deal with is censure for acts of suppression--without the threat of sanctions.

Why shouldn't Assad ignore the threat of external interference?

Even with the defection of soldiers from his army, they number in the hundreds, not the thousands--and for the most part are junior officers. And more senior officers are being ordered to stay in their barracks if they are suspected of being unfaithful.

Assad is confident enough that he has even stopped talking with the opposition, which still is unable to present a unified front to Assad, due to internal disputes:

These include, for example, whether to call for international military intervention, how to build the post-Assad regime, how to divide the political pie among Sunni and Shi'ite, Christian and Alawi; between urban and rural, between tribal heads and urban elites.

So if Assad really does feel confident that he can ride out this storm--who could blame him?

UPDATE: Although Michael Totten agrees that he is likely to ride out the current storm--there is one indication that sentiment outside of Syria may be turning more strongly against Assad: Lebanon’s Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is once again beginning to turn against Syria. He’s reachin

g out to his former allies in the “March 14” movement, feels emboldened enough that he can resume his public criticism of Bashar al-Assad’s repressive regime, and is floating the idea of a “centrist” bloc in Lebanon’s parliament independent of the Hezbollah-led “March 8” coalition that he was recently forced to join at gunpoint.

Jumblatt is often, and with some justice, described as a weathervane.

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