Why The Gallup Poll Of The Jewish Vote Won't Make Obama Sleep Better At Night

Obama’s top presidential campaign advisers are putting together a plan to go on the offensive against critics of his stance on Israel, I’m told, and are assembling a team of high profile surrogates who are well respected in the Jewish community to battle criticism in the media and ensure that it doesn’t go unanswered.At least the first time around, we were not told that we had misunderstood Obama, or that the Republicans were twisting his words.
Greg Sargent, Obama campaign to go on the offensive against conservative critics of Israel stance, Washington Post, July 1, 2011

A tactic such as this is odd, since while you would expect it from a presidential candidate, I don't think it is typical of a president.

But will Obama think twice about the need for a campaign like this, a campaign that gives the clear impression that he is worried about the Jewish vote and that so early in the campaign his advisers are scared?


It would appear that they should be very relieved then to hear the results of the recent Gallop poll, whose headline reads: Solid Majority of Jewish Americans Still Approve of Obama:

Changes in approval among Jews continues to reflect broader U.S. patterns

Jewish Americans gave President Barack Obama a 60% job approval rating in June, down from 68% in May, but statistically unchanged from 64% in April. Thirty-two percent of U.S. Jews now disapprove of the job Obama is doing, similar to their 30% average thus far in 2011.

Gallup's monthly trend in Jewish approval of Obama continues to roughly follow the path of all Americans' approval of the president, more generally, as it has since Obama took office in January 2009.

While the loss of the Jewish vote follows the overall voter trend, Obama will remain worried.

As Yid With Lid points out, the Gallup poll of the Jewish attitude towards Obama may be flawed.

A second issue pointed out by John Podhoretz is why Obama really needs Jewish support--it's all about money:

It’s one thing to cast a single vote as the member of a small minority community to which outsized attention is paid. But Jews are uncommonly generous givers, both philanthropically and politically, and while they might still cast a vote for Obama, they might give him nothing. Or half what they gave him in 2008. And that decline in enthusiasm might be reflected not only in giving to the reelection campaign, but to Democratic campaigns generally. That’s the real fear, and that’s the real problem for the Democrats. They have Jewish support at the ballot box. They can bank on that. They’re worried they won’t be able to bank on Jewish support in the other sense of the term, and that worry is very real, and very realistic, and can’t be argued away.

Larry Grossman, director of publications and a senior official at the American Jewish Committee echos the idea that Obama my be losing Jewish financial support:

“There are a lot of reports that these donors are now on the fence,” said Grossman. “They may not be as generous to Obama as they were last time around. 

And that is no minor concern.

So while Obama is applying a strategy that is more common to a regular presidential candidate, we can see why he is doing it and why he is concerned.

As well he should be.

But he will especially seem scared if the best he can do is claim the Republicans are twisting his words.



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