Haveil Havalim #85 Is Up (Finally)

Sorry about the delay--it couldn't be helped, but I know people like their Sunday Haveil Havalim Fix.

My daughter--who celebrated her birthay on Shabbos with fever--has returned to a normal temperature.
Thank you for your patience.

If there are any errors, please email me at daledamos@gmail.com

Enjoy!


Jewish Fractals

Not Quite Perfect Magen Fly

Not Quite Perfect Magen Gold


Observations on Life

The Ignoble Experiment The Inevitable "Talk"

The Ignoble Experiament Life's Not Fair... And Maybe It's A Good Thing.

Me-ander Having fun at "Savta's" (Grannie's)

Psycho Toddler The Plaque (Yahrzeit Plaques--his father's and in general)


Back to School

Ra'anana Ramblings Haute cuisine in their schoolbags? posted at Ra'anana Ramblings.

Life With Estee
goodbye summer, goodbye stay-at-home mom!

Michael Zilberstein's Journal (In Russian. Michael Zilberstein, a Russian-speaking Israeli blogger, writes about the administrative measures which may be taken to stop children from going to Israeli private schools - and the justification the government has to offer - it's attempt to fight "elitism".)


Israel and Jews

Shooting Israel (Exclusive images) Just uploaded many of the hundreds of photos I shot over the last few weeks across the north of Israel during the war, in one spot, including many that I posted recently that may already be archived. There are many earlier images as well, some photographed abroad.

Miriams's Ideas
http://miriamsideas.blogspot.com/2006/08/israel-needs-death-penalty.html

Ya'aqov Ben-Yehudah presents Shimshon Cytryn Update - September 3 posted at The (not) Forgotten Prisoners of Zion.

Israel Matzav LA Times: Israel Pegs Its Pullout to Release of Captives; JPost and Haaretz: Maybe

IRIS Israel's Debacle an Opportunity for Change

Colossus of Rhodey Comics for Israel

Pillage Idiot Baseball in Israel

Blog Free A Report from an E-Pal Up North

It's Almost Supernatural Between Unilateral Withdrawal and a Hard Place

Carl in Jerusalem The first scene of Ehud Olmert's last act

Life In Israel presents What does "elite" mean? posted at Life in Israel.

Blog Free Gelatin Scandal

The (not) Forgotten Prisoners of Zion presents Shimshon Cytryn posted at The (Not) Forgotten Prisoners of Zion.

The Israeli Tikkun blog
Whom did you vote for in today’s elections?

Westbankblog Boogie Yaalon "I'm More Afraid of the Corruption in Israel Than I Am Of the Iranians" (report on Blogger Conference with Moshe (Boogie) Yaalon)

Olah Chadasha has finished the first part in a series highlighting the IDF in the Israel-Hezbollah War http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpyVxnF8CHs

Life in Israel presents Ron Arad - a TV actor? posted at Life in Israel.

Meryl Yourish The Merkava question

Bagel Blogger Will the Real Three Stooges come Down

Shiloh Musings Jerusalem of...

WestBankBlog Protesters in Neon, and Protesters in Camouflage

Atlantic Review presents Anti-Americanism and Anti-Semitism posted at Atlantic Review.

Media Backspin Fox News, Shalit Kidnappings Linked

A Barbaric Yawp Sorry, I Thought He Was a Jew

me-ander Survivor Rights

Greetings From French Hill One Of Those Days

Israel Rules Those Humans Do The Darndest Things

Boker Tov, Boulder Olmert vs. Kahane: The Nightline Debate

In the US

Random Thoughts 12 Year Old Jewish Girl Beaten Unconcious; Bystanders Ignore Pleas For Help

Joshua Pundit Common sense from Bill Maher - of all people

Carl in Jerusalem presents Georgetown: Islam okay, Protestantism not

A Volokh Conspiracy Non-Jewish American Politicians of Jewish Descent:


Hezbollah and Lebanon

Kesher Talk Lebanon: You are There

Dr. Sanity Hezbollah's 'Historic' Victory

Gates of Vienna Old Nasrallah Had a Farm

Israellycool "The Most Significant Piece of Reporting To Come Out of the War"

The Baltimore Reporter wow, a Democrat tough on terrorists…. (Lantos)

Joshua Pundit Congressman Tom Lantos:No US aid to Lebanon unless UNIFIL patrols Syrian border

Wizbang A Must Read On The Israel - Hezbollah Conflict

Gates of Vienna Are Your Going to Believe Me or Your Lying Eyes?

Haganah Reality check? posted at haganah.

Cross Currents The World Council of Churches and Making Religion Irrelevant

Israelly Cool Responsible


Judaism

Blog Free Elul

Reb Shraga Feivel – A Seething Musical Spirit

There are no feminists on a sinking ship presents Deconstructing Arachim/Discovery arguments Part 2...Shmitta. posted at There are no feminists on a sinking ship.

There are no feminists on a sinking ship presents Deconstructing Arachim/Discovery arguments Part 1 posted at There are no feminists on a sinking ship.

Letters of Thought presents On Chassidic Historical Revisionism posted at Letters of Thought.

A Simple Jew presents Guest Posting From Rabbi Dovid Sears: Eynei Chakhomim: Eyes Of The Sages posted at A Simple Jew.

Random Thoughts: Morality Without Religion- A Comment to The Self-Righteous

Random Thoughts: Frum & Gay

Serandez http://serandez.blogspot.com/2006/08/Feminism in Halacha--2 points

Sweet Rose The Plight of the BT


The Media

Esser Agaroth CNN Complicity? Or Parapraxisity? posted at Esser Agaroth.

Cross Currents The Methodology of Media Bias

Israel Medad Picking your way through a story

Israel Medad BBC Publishes Item to the 4th Degree

Villainous Company NYTimes Watch: It's Not Easy Being Blind

Confederate Yankee Armored Vehicle Experts: Reuters News Vehicle Not Hit By Israeli Missile


The UN

Elder of Ziyon UN hypocrisy shines through

Done With Mirrors Self-Defense is Naughty


The Palestinians

Elder of Ziyon Extrajudicial Killing of PRC leader


Had to put them somewhere...together

Secular BlashphemyAhmadinejad wrote letter to Merkel about the Holocaust

Jewish Current Issues Postscript to A Mel Gibson Postscript

Yisrael Medad When Chomsky was a Zionist Youth Leader

Meryl Yourish The Nasrallah interview: Some thoughts

Soccer Dad Milbank vs. Mearsheimer


You can submit one or two of your best Israel or Judaism related posts to dhgerstman at hotmail dot com.

If you'd like to host an upcoming edition you can e-mail Soccer Dad at the same address.

You can also submit entries to Haveil Havalim using either Conservative Cat's submission form or the submission form at BlogCarnival.

Listed at the Truth Laid Bear Ubercarnival.

Technorati Tags: Blog carnivals, haveil havalim, Israel, Judaism.

"Muslims Are The New Jews"

News flash from the San Francisco Chronicle:

One in an occasional series of articles related to the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks

As the war on terror heads into its sixth year, a new racial stereotype is emerging in America. Brown-skinned men with beards and women with head scarves are seen as "Muslims" -- regardless of their actual faith or nationality.

Law enforcement measures, politicians, religious leaders and the media have contributed to stereotyping Muslims as a race -- echoing the painful history of another faith.

"Muslims are the new Jews," said Paul Silverstein, an anthropology professor at Reed College in Oregon who studies the intersection of race, immigration and Islam. "They're the object of a series of stereotypes, caricatures and fears which are not based in a reality and are independent of a person's experience with Muslims."

See the resemblance?

Crossposted at Israpundit

Technorati Tag: Jews and Moslems.

Why Did Belgian Authorities Destroy Holocaust Records?

Hat Tip: Instapundit

According to the Brussels Journal, Belgian Authorities Destroy Holocaust Records

The Belgian authorities have destroyed archives and records relating to the persecution and deportation of Jews in Belgium in the 1930s and 1940s. Some of this happened as recently as the late 1990s. This was revealed during hearings in the Belgian Senate last Spring. Though the Senate report dates from 4 May the Belgian press has not yet mentioned the affair. [update 3 Sept.: The Brussels Dutch-language newspaper De Morgen published an article on page 6 of its 14 Dec. 2005 edition, under the title: Archives about Persecution of Jews were Intentionally Destroyed] The Senate report says that “documents about the period 1930-1950 have been destroyed on a massive scale.”

Some suggestions for the destruction of the records is offered.

In Charleroi the archives of both the municipal police as well as the judicial police were completely destroyed in the late 1970s. Before the war Charleroi had a relatively large Jewish community which was all but exterminated during the war, while in Antwerp a significant proportion of the Jews managed to survive. Yet in Belgium no-one is familiar with the extermination of the Walloon Jewry, while Antwerp is regularly blamed for having been a “center of anti-Semitism.” By destroying paper trails people are made to forget that certain events ever took place.

Hugo Vandenberghe, the leader of the Flemish Christian-Democrats, suggested that the destruction of the archives “may have had a political motive.” Senator Vandenberghe referred to the anti-Semitism of the Belgian authorities in the 1930s. The historian Nico Wouters told the Senators during the hearings that even after the war the Belgian authorities continued to arrest German Jews who had survived the holocaust by going into hiding, under the pretext that they were “citizens of a hostile nation.”

Is Ahmadinejad planning on visiting Belgium too?

Technorati Tag: Belgium and Anti-semitism and Holocaust and Jews.

How Jews Got Respect in 18th Century England--And Don't Today

In Self defense & English antisemitism, Of Arms & the Law writes about Daniel Mendoza--the boxer--who gave dignity and respect to Jews in England in the 18th century:

Jews were unsafe on the streets -- a dog would not be used as they were (I think of of Dave Kopel's writings picked upon this).

Then a Spanish Jew, Mendoza, became a major boxing figure, and set up a school. London's jews decided to join the fad and studied under him. (One of his invention was Mendoza's Chop ... when the other guy swings a right at you, instead of blocking it with your left, you use your right fist to hammer his forearm and drive it away. Two or three of those and the other guy's right becomes very weak).

As a result, in a matter of a few years, London's jews were treated quite politely. An antisemite had to worry whether the fellow he meant to harrass had spent a few months with Mendoza, and was well suited to hammering the stuffing out of him. [emphasis added]

Would the fact that a Jew may have studied under Mendoza been enough to scare off an attacker? Are Orientals immune to attack because they may know karate?

There is another explanation for how Jews gained respect.
According to the International Jewish Sports Hall of Fame:

His acceptance by British royalty (he was the first Jew ever to speak to England’s King George III) helped elevate the position of the Jew in English society and stem a vicious tide of anti-Semitism that many Englishmen read into Shakespeare’s characterization of Shylock in his play The Merchant of Venice.

But that was then.
Today, in the US, Jews are not only accepted and recognized by the government--they hold important posts within it.
As a result, they are called neo-cons and accused of pressuring the US into taking actions that benefit Israel but are not in the best interests of the US.

And how are things in England today?

BRITISH Jews are facing a wave of anti-Semitic attacks prompted by Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Synagogues have been daubed with graffiti, Jewish leaders have had hate-mail and ordinary people have been subjected to insults and vandalism.

On Thursday an all-party parliamentary inquiry will state that anti-Semitic violence has become endemic in Britain, both on the streets and university campuses. The report will call for urgent action from the Government, the police and educational establishments.

...The attackers, when visible, are from across society, he said. “When it’s verbal abuse, it’s just ordinary people in the street, from middle-class women to working-class men. All colours and backgrounds. We hardly ever see incidents involving the classic neo-Nazi skinhead. Muslims are over-represented.”

In 2004, Simon Sebag Montefiore wrote about being a Jew in England and how it is different than being a Jew in the US:

Being an English Jew is very different from being an American Jew. American Jews can never quite understand the insecurities of being a European Jew, for the 5.8 million American Jews feel totally secure. (Though it should be noted that in the US, there are still co-ops in uptown NYC, clubs in Miami, where Jews are inadmissible.) Here in Britain, we are only 275,000 out of 60 million. Most parts of Britain have no Jews at all. I constantly meet educated Brits who have never met a Jew. Such people can never quite believe it: "You're not, are you? Oh, you really are. Great! I've always thought you're a very clever people."

Hail Britainia.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Anti-semitism and England and Daniel Mendoza.

West Bank Settlements May Be Legal

One more nail in the coffin of Convergence?

Arutz Sheva: Legal Forum: ´Unauthorized Outposts´ Are Legal Communities
23:44 Sep 03, '06 / 10 Elul 5766
by Ezra HaLevi

A group of legal experts called the the Land of Israel Legal Forum says that most of the Jewish civilian outposts in Judea and Samaria deemed "unauthorized" are, in fact, perfectly legal.

The Legal forum has submitted an official request to present ifs findings to the Ministerial Committee On Outposts.

The story began in March, 2005, when former head of the State Prosecution Criminal Department Talia Sasson released a report which declared that some 150 outlying Jewish neighborhoods in Judea and Samaria were illegal. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon commissioned the report, which led to demands from within and from without Israel to expel the Jewish residents and destroy their homes.

In a recent development, Haaretz newspaper reported that the Justice Ministry would soon present the relevant Ministerial Committee with a proposal whereby many of the civilian communities in question would be legalized and assisted. Attorney Talia Sasson, in turn, requested to appear before the committee to argue that the Jewish civilian outposts have no legal standing.

The Legal Forum is requesting equal treatment in order to present committee members with their claim that the communities are in fact “fully authorized.”

Though according to the Sasson Report, the establishment of an outpost requires government approval, such a regulation was not put in place until December 6th, 2004, when Attorney General Menachem Mazuz issued the directive. Until then, the Legal Forum says, the status of an outpost was regulated in accordance with Government Resolution 150 from August 2, 1996, which stipulated that the Defense Minister had the authority to authorize new outpost communities.

Nearly all of the Jewish neighborhoods deemed "unauthorized" by Talia Sasson were established before Mazuz’s 2004 stipulation and are therefore, in fact, legally authorized. “It seems that Atty. Sasson was trying to enforce legal directives against communities that were already in existence before the new guidelines were issued,” a Forum statement said.

Then again, thet Jewish communities in Gaza were legal too.

Technorati Tag: Israel and West Bank and Settlements.

Al Qaeda To Attack U.S.--Now They Tell Us

Artuz Sheva reports Al-Qaeda Issues "Offer that Can't be Refused"

An Al-Qaeda video released on Saturday called on Americans and the rest of the Christian world to "repent" and convert to Islam. Expert: "This is the invitation that precedes the attack."

The newly released video, posted on an extremist Islamic website, contained footage of Al-Qaeda's deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahri and a man identified as Adam Yehiye Gadahn. Gadahn is an American convert to Islam, wanted by the FBI for his alleged role in developing Al-Qaeda propaganda in Pakistan.

“To Americans and the rest of Christendom we say, either repent [your] misguided ways and enter into the light of truth," Gadahn threatened, "or keep your poison to yourselves and suffer the consequences in this world and the next... But whatever you do don’t attempt to spread your misery and misguidance to our lands.”

“Muslims don’t need democracy to rid themselves of their homegrown despots and tyrants. What they do need is their Islamic faith, the sprit of jihad and the lifting of foreign troops and interference from their necks,” Gadahn stated. He read verses from the Koran in Arabic, and then translated them into English, calling on Muslims to strengthen their faith and expel their rulers.

Robert Spencer, director of JihadWatch and author of several popular books on Islam, explained to Arutz-7's Nissan Ratzlav-Katz that the tape "appears to be the call to Islam that the Muslim Prophet Muhammed requires to be extended to infidels before they can be lawfully attacked by Muslims."

"Once that call is rejected," Spencer feels, "Muslims are required to begin hostilities in order to subjugate the infidel population in question and bring it into the Islamic social order. Thus it seems likely that terror attacks and/or attempted terror attacks will follow Gadahn's 'invitation' - although there is no certainty that they will follow within a certain time frame."

Al-Zawahri, also speaking on the tape, urged viewers to heed Gadahn's “Invitation to Islam. He stated ominously, "To the American people and the people of the West in general ... Allah sent his Prophet Muhammad with guidance and the religion of truth ... and sent him as a herald."

If Spencer is correct, then this call to 'accept Islam or face attack':

1. is a warning--unlike 9/11. How would Al Qaeda explain that--Practice?
2. amounts to 'convert or die'--what about "there is no coercion in religion." Religion no, Islam yes?

According to Answering Islam

S. A. Rahman makes the distinct claim:

This verse is one of the most important verses in the Qur'an, containing a charter of freedom of conscience unparalleled in the religious annals of mankind.... [1]

Compare that with what Raphael Patai writes in The Arab Mind about

the doctrine of Din Muhammad bi'l-sayf (literally, "The religion of Muhammad with the sword"), which required all Mulsims to spread Islam by the force of arms. [p.155]

After all, Islam's massive occupation during its heyday reached as far as Russia.

Rahman does admit that some commentators minimize the area covered by the 'no compulsion' verse, and claims with a straight face:

Such an interpretation can perhaps be attributed to the unconscious pressure of orthodox tradition. [emphasis added]

Have Rahman and his fellow apologists ever heard of Al Qaeda?

Technorati Tag: Al Qaeda and Terrorism and US and Islam.

Al Qaeda To Attack--Now They Tell Us

Artuz Sheva reports Al-Qaeda Issues "Offer that Can't be Refused"

An Al-Qaeda video released on Saturday called on Americans and the rest of the Christian world to "repent" and convert to Islam. Expert: "This is the invitation that precedes the attack."

The newly released video, posted on an extremist Islamic website, contained footage of Al-Qaeda's deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahri and a man identified as Adam Yehiye Gadahn. Gadahn is an American convert to Islam, wanted by the FBI for his alleged role in developing Al-Qaeda propaganda in Pakistan.

“To Americans and the rest of Christendom we say, either repent [your] misguided ways and enter into the light of truth," Gadahn threatened, "or keep your poison to yourselves and suffer the consequences in this world and the next... But whatever you do don’t attempt to spread your misery and misguidance to our lands.”

“Muslims don’t need democracy to rid themselves of their homegrown despots and tyrants. What they do need is their Islamic faith, the sprit of jihad and the lifting of foreign troops and interference from their necks,” Gadahn stated. He read verses from the Koran in Arabic, and then translated them into English, calling on Muslims to strengthen their faith and expel their rulers.

Robert Spencer, director of JihadWatch and author of several popular books on Islam, explained to Arutz-7's Nissan Ratzlav-Katz that the tape "appears to be the call to Islam that the Muslim Prophet Muhammed requires to be extended to infidels before they can be lawfully attacked by Muslims."

"Once that call is rejected," Spencer feels, "Muslims are required to begin hostilities in order to subjugate the infidel population in question and bring it into the Islamic social order. Thus it seems likely that terror attacks and/or attempted terror attacks will follow Gadahn's 'invitation' - although there is no certainty that they will follow within a certain time frame."

Al-Zawahri, also speaking on the tape, urged viewers to heed Gadahn's “Invitation to Islam. He stated ominously, "To the American people and the people of the West in general ... Allah sent his Prophet Muhammad with guidance and the religion of truth ... and sent him as a herald."

If Spencer is correct, then this call to 'accept Islam or face attack':

1. is a warning--unlike 9/11. How would Al Qaeda explain that--Practice?
2. amounts to 'convert or die'--what about "there is no coercion in religion." Religion no, Islam yes?

According to Answering Islam

S. A. Rahman makes the distinct claim:

This verse is one of the most important verses in the Qur'an, containing a charter of freedom of conscience unparalleled in the religious annals of mankind.... [1]

Compare that with what Raphael Patai writes in The Arab Mind about

the doctrine of Din Muhammad bi'l-sayf (literally, "The religion of Muhammad with the sword"), which required all Mulsims to spread Islam by the force of arms. [p.155]

After all, Islam's massive occupation during its heyday reached as far as Russia.

Rahman does admit that some commentators minimize the area covered by the 'no compulsion' verse, and claims with a straight face:

Such an interpretation can perhaps be attributed to the unconscious pressure of orthodox tradition. [emphasis added]

Have Rahman and his fellow apologists ever heard of Al Qaeda?

Technorati Tag: Al Qaeda and Terrorism and US and Islam.

Haveil Havalim Will Be a Little Late

Just a heads up.
My daughter woke up with 102 temperature Thursday morning.
She just woke up now with 104.

Technorati Tag: Israel.

UN: No Right To Self-Defense In International Law

The blog of the Claremont Institute, The Remedy, notes that there is a:

U.N. Report which denies that there is such a thing as a right to self-defense in international law.

No international human right of self-defence is expressly set forth in the primary sources of international law: treaties, customary law, or general principles.

The Remedy counters that the modern ideas of the law of nations runs counter to the UN's formulation, quoting Emmerich de Vattel:

IN vain does nature prescribe to nations, as well as to individuals, the care of self-preservation, and of advancing their own perfection and happiness, if she does not give them a right to preserve themselves from every thing that might render this care ineffectual. This right is nothing more than a moral power of acting, that is, the power of doing what is morally possible — what is proper and conformable to our duties. We have, then, in general, a right to do whatever is necessary to the discharge of our duties. Every nation, as well as every man, has, therefore, a right to prevent other nations from obstructing her preservation, her perfection, and happiness, — that is, to preserve herself from all injuries (§ 18): and this right is a perfect one, since it is given to satisfy a natural and indispensable obligation: for, when we cannot use constraint in order to cause our rights to be respected, their effects are very uncertain. It is this right to preserve herself from all injury that is called the right to security. [emphasis added]

This goes against the UN report, which sees self-defense by the State more as a concession--reluctantly granted and strongly limite--than as a right:

Self-defence is a widely recognized, yet legally proscribed, exception to the universal duty to respect the right to life of others. Self-defence is a basis for exemption from criminal responsibility that can be raised by any State agent or non-State actor. Self-defence is sometimes designated as a “right”. There is inadequate legal support for such an interpretation. Self-defence is more properly characterized as a means of protecting the right to life and, as such, a basis for avoiding responsibility for violating the rights of another. [emphasis added]

This seems to be the direction that Human Rights Watch follows, as enunciated by Kenneth Roth, the Executive Head of HRW in New York. In his article in the Jerusalem Post entitled Indiscriminate bombardment, Roth makes reference to international law three times--but each time refers to it as "international humanitarian law," circumscribing the rule of law in the conduct of war and putting the lives of others before the lives of the country being attacked [see: Human Rights Watch: Human Rights Vs. Human Life].

This may not be the first attempt to put legal limits on a country's right to self-defense.

Leanne Piggott, a lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Sydney and a director of Academic Programs of the Centre for International Security Studies wrote in July 2004 about the Hague's decision on Israel's Security Fence--Judges' ruling rewrites UN Charter on self-defence:

THE advisory opinion brought down by the International Court of Justice last Friday in relation to Israel's separation barrier has implications far beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Buried deep in the text of its opinion is a bombshell that purports to radically rewrite the rules of international law governing the inherent right of states to defend themselves and their citizens.

The ICJ recognises that this right is enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter. But the ICJ then says that this right is limited to self-defence in the case of armed attack "by one state against another state". That limitation does not appear anywhere in the text of Article 51 itself. Article 51 recognises that states have an inherent right of self-defence "if an armed attack occurs". It does not say that the armed attack must have been carried out by, or be attributable to, another state.

The distinction is critical in the on-going struggle against international terrorism. Although every act of terrorism necessarily originates in territory (or aboard a ship or aircraft) that is owned or occupied by a sovereign state, it does not follow that every such act of terrorism is supported by that state, and attributable to it in a legal sense.

The ICJ is now saying that if terrorists based in the territory of state A attack state B without the passive or active support of state A, state B may not have the right to defend itself from future attack by striking back at the terrorist base – despite Article 51. [emphasis added]

The logic of that last paragraph seems to be pretty much in sync with the assumptions expressed by many critics of Israel's bombing of Hezbollah terrorist bases in Lebanon.

Technorati Tag: Israel and International Law and UN and Lebanon.

One More Time: Did Hezbollah Win The War Or Not?

Not if you ask Austin Bay.

And he seems to make a good case.
Which of course is not to say that Israel won--

But the emerging "big picture" suggests the War of the Rockets physically punished and politically damaged Hezbollah, despite its media touts of victory.

...What did Hezbollah lose? The Israel-Hezbollah war began with Lebanon as a "hijacked nation state." Hezbollah (supported by Iran and Syria) controlled southern Lebanon and Lebanon's southern border, which put the area in a geo-political limbo. Southern Lebanon was not fully sovereign Lebanese territory.

At the moment, Israel exerts more control over Lebanon's southern border than Hezbollah, U.N. peacekeepers or the Lebanese government. That may not be an Israeli win, but it is no victory laurel for Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

Hezbollah still dominates swaths of southern Lebanon and in those areas retains the ability to intimidate Lebanese locals and fire rockets at various current and potential adversaries -- Israel for sure, but also U.N. peacekeepers and the Lebanese Army. However, positioning Lebanese government forces and U.N. peacekeepers in south Lebanon could slowly diminish Hezbollah's military and political capacities.

Yes, peacekeepers could end up protecting Hezbollah. However, if the United Nations' military Rules of Engagement (ROE) are robust, Hezbollah's ability to act will be very circumscribed. The United Nations' 1995 failure to protect Srbrenica, Bosnia, is a huge stain that aggressive policing in south Lebanon would help remove.

If Turkish troops are part of the U.N. contingent, Hezbollah will face even stiffer political and military constraints. Turkey wants to make the case that its confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq is analogous to the one Israel faces with Hezbollah. A Turkish U.N. contingent would be a tough Muslim opponent for Hezbollah.

Hezbollah isn't poised to win The War of the Wallets, either. Using Iranian cash, Hezbollah has bought influence in Lebanon by funding social services. Hezbollah announced it will provide funds to rebuild homes destroyed in the war.

But the U.S. government has countered with its own "green" strategy, as in greenbacks to rebuild the whole of Lebanon.

Then there is Amir Taheri adding his two cents:

Taheri argues that Hezbollah is on the edge of a huge political defeat within Lebanon. "The leaders of the March 14 movement," Taheri writes, "which has a majority in the Lebanese Parliament and government, have demanded an investigation into the circumstances that led to the war, a roundabout way of accusing Hezbollah of having provoked the tragedy."

And StrategyPage.com adding theirs:

StrategyPage.com noted Hezbollah's political and military failure as it occurred, noting on July 26:

"Hezbollah knows, however, that as long as they can launch at least one rocket a day, they can claim victory. This is because Arabs no longer expect to ... defeat Israel militarily, so that if the Arab force is still fighting, it is considered a victory. While ludicrous, this attitude has been widely accepted throughout the Middle East. However, this twisted logic is beginning to fray, and an increasing number of Arabs are questioning it. But in the short term, it still works."

And noting on July 25:

"While Hezbollah has been able to muster public support throughout Lebanon and the Arab world, they know that in the aftermath of all this, despite declaring a victory, they are already being blamed for causing a disaster, and will suffer substantial losses in the aftermath of this war."

All that's left now is to see if history imitates punditry.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Hezbollah and Hizbollah and Lebanon and UN.