Hamas and Hezbollah: Imitation Is The Sincerest Form of Terrorism

Hamas continues to emulate their terrorist comrades in Hezbollah

• Hezbollah kidnaps Israeli soldiers--Hamas kidnaps Gilad Shalit.
• Hezbollah builds extensive underground bunkers--Hamas builds underground installations in Gaza.
• Hezbollah bombs Israel during its war--Hamas figures it can bomb Israel forever.

And now Haaretz reports that Hamas wants to employ the 'Hezbollah model' in Gaza:

Why a Hamas - Fatah Unity Government Is A Sham

Khaled Abu Toameh writes about What Is Really Blocking the Peace Process:

It is clear is that neither Hamas nor Fatah is interested in achieving unity -- each for its own reasons. Then there are radicals in the Arab and Islamic countries -- such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis -- who will never accept Israel's right to exist.

But neither side is about to reveal that the continued meetings and calls for a unity government are a sham.

Arlene Kushner On New Talk of a Fatah - Hamas Unity Government

From Arlene Kushner:

December 3, 2012

It Doesn't End

I learned today that Netanyahu told the Likud faction yesterday that there has been no approval for building in E1, the region between Ma'ale Adumim and Jerusalem.  What has been approved is zoning and planning.

Ooooh. 

So, here I'm not saying "so-far, so-good."  What I don't know is if this was all that was intended from the time of the announcement, with reports having exaggerated or obscured that intention. Or if there has been a reversal in response to the huge outpouring of criticism about Israel building in E1.

The Middle East Media Sampler: Flame--The Latest Computer Virus To Hit Iran

From DG:

1) ????? vs. Iran

A new computer threat against Iran has been discovered. The Washington Post reports, Newly identified computer virus, used for spying, is 20 times size of Stuxnet:

Flame contains 20 megabytes of code. Though malware’s size is not per se a measure of sophistication, Schouwenberg said, in this case “its size shows that it’s taken a lot of time and work to create.”

The Middle East Media Sampler 4/25/12: Israeli Settlements Condemned; Fatah-Hamas Unity Is "Internal Matter"

From DG:

1) Settlements > Hamas?

In Israel Retroactively Legalizes 3 West Bank Settlements, new New York Times Jerusalem bureau chief Jodi Rudoren reports:

But while antisettlement advocates saw it as a significant shift in policy that could undermine the prospects for a two-state solution — and the United States and other foreign governments immediately raised concerns about the move — a spokesman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that it was simply a matter of resolving technical problems such as improper permits and mistakenly building on the wrong hill. 

“One can be critical of the Israeli settlement policy, that’s everybody’s right, but you can’t tell me that the Israeli government has built new settlements, and you can’t tell me this is legalizing unauthorized outposts,” said the Netanyahu spokesman, Mark Regev. “These decisions are procedural or technical. They don’t change anything whatsoever on the ground.”

To support her reporting, Rudoren gets two statements from two anti-settlement Israeli organizations, one the Palestinian Authority (“Netanyahu has pushed things to a dead end yet again.” ) and  a disapproving statement from the State Department.

Contrast that with Unity Deal Brings Risks for Abbas and Israel, by Ethan Bronner from two months ago.

President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority embraced reconciliation with the Islamist movement Hamas on Monday, agreeing to head a unity government to prepare for elections in the West Bank and Gaza.  

His move was welcomed cautiously by a broad range of Palestinians who are fed up with the brutal split at the heart of their national movement. It promised to upend Israeli-Palestinian relations, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning Mr. Abbas that he could have peace with Israel or unity with Hamas, but not both.

Bronner only cites the government of Israel as opposing the deal. The State Department dismissed the unity deal as an "internal matter."

Now these unity deals don't ever seem to work out. However, the differing treatment of these two stories illustrates a disturbing dynamic. "Settlements" are automatically designated an obstacle to peace. Any Palestinian objections to existing or potential settlements are taken at face value - by the media, even by the American government - though it isn't at all clear that the Oslo Accords forbid them.

However, a Fatah-Hamas deal demonstrates a blatant rejection of the premise of the peace process - that the PLO would reject terror. No NGO's who have reporters' attention object to this. The State Department yawns.

In the end the Palestinian Authority's objections and actions are what drives the peace process, not the documents they signed with Israel. As long as Palestinian obstructionism continues to be tolerated and rewarded, there will be no peace.

2) The road to Arab democracy?

In The Islamist Road to Democracy Reuel Marc Gerecht argues:

We can easily find truly disturbing commentary and actions by members of the Egyptian Brotherhood, or by the Tunisian Rachid Ghannouchi, the intellectual guru behind the ruling Nahda Party. But we can just as easily find words and deeds that ought to make us consider the possibility that these men are neither Ernest Röhm and his fascist Brownshirts nor even religious versions of secular autocrats. Rather, they are cultural hybrids trying to figure out how to combine the best of the West (material progress and the absence of brutality in daily life) without betraying their faith and pride.v We know that in Iran, under theocracy, once die-hard members of the revolutionary elite have become proponents of evermore liberal democracy. Fundamentalists became fundamentalist critics. The Islamic Republic's controlled elections created a powerful appetite for real ones. 

In Arab lands, militant Muslims who once espoused violent revolution now back representative government. They do so, in part, because they know how powerful the appeal of democracy is among the faithful. They also do so, as Iraq's Shiite clerics have made clear, because they are certain that free Muslims voting can't do worse than the Westernized dictators before them. Democracy is thus a means to keep Muslims more religious whereas theocracy actually secularizes society.

Gerecht even explains Turkey's - which would seem to be a counterexample to his thesis - growing radicalism as a response to previous liberal governments that persecuted its minorities.

Barry Rubin, though, in The Iraq model: as good at it gets writes:

Of the greatest importance is the fact that Islamist elements have been defeated (in the Sunni case) or held at bay (in the Shia case). Things can certainly get worse but some stability seems to have been achieved at this time. 

Another key factor is that Iraq is acting more “normally” as a state by minding its own business. It is not subverting neighbors or trying to take over the Middle East. Iraq also has decent relations with the West. This is a country that is trying to deal with its own problems. And if there is factionalism and corruption, at least it appears to be clear that no force can monopolize power and establish a repressive dictatorship. 

Call it chaotic pluralism as an alternative to Islamist dictatorship. And, yes, that appears to be the best that can be expected in those countries not still dominated by traditionalist monarchies. It is certainly preferable to the “Turkish model.” Yet I don’t expect many people in the West to appreciate that point.

Neither Gerecht nor Rubin is discussing a near term political horizon, but just what is the preferable first step on the long road to democracy.

3) Black gold blues

The Iranian oil industry suffered a cyberattack. In Facing Cyberattack, Iranian Officials Disconnect Some Oil Terminals From Internet, Thomas Erdbrink of the New York Times reports:

Iranian officials said the virus attack, which began in earnest on Sunday afternoon, had not affected oil production or exports, because the industry is still primarily mechanical and does not rely on the Internet. Officials said they were disconnecting the oil terminals and possibly some other installations in an effort to combat the virus. 

“Fortunately our international oil selling division has not been affected,” said a high-level manager at the Oil Ministry who asked not to be mentioned for security reasons. “There is no panic, but this shows we have shortcomings in our security systems.” 

There were some reports that the virus had forced widespread Internet shutdowns. “The ministry has disconnected all oil facilities, operations and even oil rigs from the Internet to prevent this virus from spreading,” said another Oil Ministry official who asked to remain anonymous, because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the attack. “Everybody at the ministry is working overtime to prevent this.” His assertion about the extent of the shutdowns could not be independently verified.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Iraq and Turkey and Media Bias.

Barry Rubin: The Hamas Split and the Palestinian Political Mess

The following by Barry Rubin is reposted with permission:

The Hamas Split and the Palestinian Political Mess

By Barry Rubin

There’s a serious split in Hamas reflecting the growing civil war among Islamists along Sunni-Shia lines. Each side is radical but the fact that they’re fighting among themselves weakens both of them.

The issues involved are tactical, not strategic. Indeed, what is ironic is that Khaled Mashal, who historically has been described as the radical, is following the approach that will seem moderate to the naïve while Ismail Haniya, described by the naive as the moderate is leading the ostensibly more radical faction.

Video: Latma Presents Hamas and Fatah's Musical Unity

Here is this week's Latma--
With a musical number.

Enjoy:

Arlene Kushner On The Palestinian Unity Government And Reactions To It

From Arlene Kushner:

February 12, 2012

"A Clown"

Ben Gurion famously referred to "oom shmoom," which is a derisive reference to the UN that cannot quite be translated. ("Oom" referring to the United Nations and "shmoom" being a nonsense putdown.)  Well, attitudes have changed here in Israel since then, but I fall back on this Ben Gurion reference every so often because it remains so fitting at one level.

I bring it up now because Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary General of the UN, visited this region recently, at which time he urged Netanyahu to make "goodwill gestures" to advance peace.

Arlene Kushner On Possible Hamas Split Over Unity Government With Abbas

February 10, 2012

"Whither Unity?"

A brief posting today, before Shabbat, focused on Hamas and the "reconciliation" with Fatah.  As predicted, it is shaky at best, and by the time I write again who knows how the situation will have shifted.

Word is coming from multiple sources now indicating great dissatisfaction with the agreement on the part of Hamas leaders in Gaza.  Apparently, which was not what I was reading at first, Haniyeh is among those voicing objections. 

Arlene Kushner On Abbas, Hamas and The Unity Government

From Arlene Kushner:

February 7, 2012

"The Trees..."

It pleases me to begin with mention of Tu B'Shvat, which starts tonight.  A holiday with religious significance in the Mishnah (as the "New Year of the Trees" with regard to how years are calculated for harvest of fruit), Tu B'Shvat has become very much an Arbor Day here in modern Israel: a day for the honoring and the planting of trees, as well as a day for eating the fruit of the tree -- especially the Biblical fruits, grapes, figs, pomegranates, olives and dates.

We have been blessed this year with more rain than we've had for several years -- rain which still continues.  Because of this the landscape is so very green. And, as is expected, the earliest of the blossoming trees, the almond, has begun to flower -- the harbinger of spring.

Source: Yael Ruder

~~~~~~~~~~

How much more lovely to speak of almond blossoms than Fatah and Hamas, but that's our focus now: 

Khaled Abu Toameh has reported in the JPost that Fatah and Hamas have reached a unity agreement.  This reconciliation accord, signed by Mahmoud Abbas and Khaled Mashaal, is being referred to as the "Doha Declaration" -- it was mediated by the government of Qatar in Doha.  

Under its terms, Abbas -- currently functioning as president of the PA, although his term has expired -- will be the interim prime minister of a government consisting of "independent figures."   There is no mention of whether Salam Fayyad, whom Hamas has consistently opposed and Abbas has just as consistently promoted, will play a role. 

The primary function of this government is to prepare for presidential and parliamentary elections and rebuild Gaza.  No date has been set for elections, which might be held as soon as in 90 days, or not until later in the year.

Other issues addressed include the release of "activists" on both sides, opening of closed institutions, lifting of travel bans, and permitting members of Fatah to return to their homes in the Hamas-controlled  Gaza Strip, which they had fled.

Abbas and Mashaal have agreed to hold a meeting of the (recently selected temporary) leadership of various Palestinian groups on the 18th of this month in Cairo.  At that time, implementation of the agreement is to be discussed, as well as incorporation of Hamas into the PLO.  After that meeting, the full interim government will be announced.

~~~~~~~~~~

That's as it is planned now.  But the 18th is still 11 days away.  And since not everyone in Fatah and Hamas is on board with this accord, it remains to be seen what the ultimate result will be.  Both Abbas and Hamas must still convince their respective party members that the agreement is a desirable one.  Abu Toameh, in a separate JPost piece, cites Palestinians who think this accord may yet lead to splits in both Fatah and Hamas.

~~~~~~~~~~

My own initial response, on reading about this agreement, was astonishment at the willingness of Hamas to allow Abbas to hold the position of interim prime minister in the newly agreed-upon government.  I am convinced that there was a time when this could not have happened.  As I followed prior Fatah-Hamas accords and attempts to reach agreements, it was consistently my observation that Hamas called the shots and Fatah acceded. 

Its current willingness to provide the head of Fatah with a key position signals the weakening status of Hamas: This group has lost its funding and walked away from its headquarters in Damascus.  No other nation has yet agreed to take them in -- not Egypt nor Jordan nor Turkey; they are said to feel that relocation in Gaza would render them too vulnerable to Israeli attack.  Politburo leaders seem to be wandering the area.  

My guess would be that Mashaal, at least, sees an accord with Fatah as strengthening Hamas's hand and its base.  I will note that one immediate advantage is the release of Hamas people being held in PA prisons -- Abbas has announced the release of 64 such persons.  There have already been reports from the IDF regarding increased Hamas activity in Judea and Samaria; it has long been the Hamas goal to take over this area, just as it took Gaza.  Additionally, I suspect that Hamas officials hope for an enhanced image and increased legitimacy in the international community as a result of this deal.  The Hamas aspiration to be in control of the PLO is likely a motivating factor, as well -- a way to boost its power and influence.

But there are Hamas activists and officials -- though Ismail Haniyeh is not among them -- who are furious at the idea of placing Abbas in the position of prime minister. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Abbas had long played a game of fluctuating between forging a unity government and negotiating a "peace" with Israel -- one day heading in one direction and another day in the opposite.  He has come to a dead end on the Jordanian supervised indirect or preliminary talks and declared that he could move no further without specific Israeli concessions.  But he is under pressure to continue.  Could be that he decided that this was the time to switch gears and shift the dynamic.

At the same time, there are members of Fatah who are not keen to see elections -- a key provision of the accord -- as there is a good likelihood that Hamas will win at the polls.  Just as there are members of Fatah not pleased at the prospect of Hamas entry into the PLO.

~~~~~~~~~~

Prime Minister Netanyahu has already made it very clear that for the PA it's either negotiations with Israel or an accord with Hamas, but not both.  Not that Abbas cares, but it's important to put Israel's cards on the table up front with regard to the international community.  Israel cannot be expected to negotiate with a Hamas-affiliated PA or to accord it "confidence-inspiring measures."

In his statement Netanyahu pointed out that Hamas has not accepted the three minimal requirements of the international community: recognizing Israel's right to exist, abandoning terrorism, and accepting previous agreements, but instead "continues to arm itself for even deadlier terrorism."

When I read, as I did today, that an Israel official said that "...this agreement would lead to the end of the peace process," I wanted to ask if he was joking -- if he thought there was a peace process before this agreement.  But this is simply part of the way it has to be played (or they imagine it has to be played): See world, we were ready to continue, but Abbas blew it.

At any rate, it has been announced that Israeli work on putting together a package of economic "incentives" to keep the PA talking at a low level has been put on hold.  That's quite fine. These "incentives" were, of course, being developed at the behest of the US and the EU.

~~~~~~~~~~

The US has no official position yet on this development, as it is still "speculative." 

The EU does not have an official position yet either.  However, as Abu Toameh points out, at the end of November the EU called for PA reconciliation with Hamas, referring to it as "an opportunity rather than a threat -- an important element for a viable Palestinian state, and essential for securing a lasting peace with Israel."  Yes, the EU gives lip service to the three requirements of Hamas, as stated above, but you can see where the Europeans are headed.  They would turn themselves into pretzels finding ways to legitimize a unity government.

~~~~~~~~~~

Wow!  A veritable genius!  Dennis Ross, formerly a US Mideast envoy, speaking at the Aspen Institute, said he believes this is not the right time for a final peace agreement between Israel and the PA:  "Right now I don't think the contest lends itself very well to producing a permanent status deal."

Consider the state of affairs, if such a common sense observation has to be noted as something special.  What he said additionally was that he believed the situation should be regarded from a position of "humility."  By which I understand that he thinks those officials making pronouncements about what they can accomplish would be wise to close their mouths.

~~~~~~~~~~

Even though the situation is on hold for the moment, I want to call your attention to a cogent analysis by Shoshana Bryen (formerly with JINSA and now with the Jewish Policy Center): "No More 'Peace Talks,' Please."

Bryen points out that the three major assumptions from Oslo have all been proven wrong:

• That Palestinian nationalism could be understood as the mirror image of Jewish nationalism (Zionism);
• That Palestinian nationalism could find its full expression in a West Bank and Gaza Strip state; and
• That there is a price Israel, the United States, and Europe could pay to the Palestinians that would overcome any remaining Palestinian objection to Jewish sovereignty in the region.

~~~~~~~~~~

And then, a delightful, although ultimately very serious, piece by Barry Rubin, "When the Moderates are Radicals You're in Trouble."

"I’d like to share with you a secret. Every day I read and hear things by people who claim to be experts on the Middle East. I have read them on the land; I have read them on the sea; I have read them in the air.
"And they will never surrender to reality. Here are the two main causes of error:


"-– They think the Middle East is just like the West so they can extrapolate from their own experience... You are not Arafat or Khomeini or Saddam Hussein or whatever and unless you have some understanding of how they actually think-–and not your own Western pragmatic interpretation of what they should think–-there’s no sense in discussing it.


"-– They think the Middle East is just what they’d like it to be. Peace? Easy. They have a plan. My response: I’d love to hear your plan but I’m all booked up to hear Middle East peace plans for the next three years. I’ll put you on the waiting list and get back to you...


"The Middle East is so strange in Western terms, so different -- having its own unique history and institutions -- that unless you are really aware of those differences please pick something else to be an expert on..."

~~~~~~~~~~


Rubin's piece is about Egypt and you can learn by reading it in its entirety. But I love this introduction because it applies to so much I deal with, so much that I have trouble explaining to people.  Judging the world, and in particular the Arab world, by Western standards and principles is a huge mistake. 


~~~~~~~~~~

© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced onlywith proper attribution.

See my website at Arlene From Israel   Contact Arlene at akushner@netvision.net.il

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Technorati Tag: Israel and Middle East and Hamas and Abbas.