Raymond Ibrahim: Egyptian Election: Islamist Victory or Deceptive Strategy?

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted here with permission:

Egyptian Election: Islamist Victory or Deceptive Strategy?

by Raymond Ibrahim
Gatestone Institute
June 19, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3267/egyptian-election-islamist-victory

Has anyone stopped to ask where the headlines "Muslim Brotherhood Wins Egypt's Presidential Election!" originate? They come, of course, straight from the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies—particularly the Qatar-based Islamist propaganda machine, Al Jazeera—and were then unquestioningly picked up and spread like wildfire by the Western mainstream media and talking-heads.

Left unquoted by the Western media are the many Egyptian analysts that have a different tale to tell—that the secular candidate, Ahmed Shafiq, has won.

The Middle East Media Sampler 6/19/2012: The Extent Of Obama's Failure With Palestinians

From DG:

1) Betting on the PA

Steven Rosen in a summary of a recent paper, Israeli Settlements, American Pressure, and Peace wrote:

President Obama apparently believed that pressuring Israel to halt construction of homes in Jewish neighborhoods in parts of Jerusalem formerly controlled by Jordan would advance peace. In reality, the opposite ensued. As a result, he was the first president since the Madrid conference in 1991 to have had no sustained high-level, direct negotiations between the parties. Never before were peace negotiations held up by putting the wish for a settlement freeze first. Mahmoud Abbas participated in 18 years of direct negotiations with seven Israeli governments, all without the settlements freeze that he now insists is an absolute precondition to begin even low-level talks.

Barry Rubin: Egypt: Things to Think About as We Await the Presidential Election Outcome

Egypt: Things to Think About as We Await the Presidential Election Outcome

by Barry Rubin

While one can certainly sympathize with the idea of letting an elected parliament take office, that’s not necessarily such a clear call in strategic terms. The parliament — which will write the constitution and thus define the powers of the president — is almost 75 percent rabidly anti-American and antisemitic. (I don’t write that last word lightly, but it is quite accurate.) Imagine if this situation had arisen in Iran in 1979 with the Iranian military refusing to turn over power to the forces led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Would it have been wise for Washington to demand that this be done as soon as possible?

Yet, here is Defense Secretary Leon Panetta calling on Egypt’s military in a manner that “highlighted the need to move forward expeditiously with Egypt’s political transition, including conducting new legislative elections as soon as possible.” Senator Patrick J. Leahy has called for withholding U.S. aid to Egypt, saying, “I would not want to see the U.S. government write checks for contracts with Egypt’s military under the present uncertain circumstances.” What circumstances are more appropriate for sending U.S. arms and money? When the Muslim Brotherhood dominates parliament, the presidency, has written a constitution mandating Sharia law, and follows a policy of death to America and death to Israel? Who are you going to cheer for if Islamists rebel against the regime?

The Middle East Media Sampler 6/15/2012: What Next In Egypt?

From DG:

1) The 33% dissolution?

According to a number of news sources, Egypt's constitutional court disqualified approximately one third of the members of the Muslim Brotherhood dominated parliament. David Schenker and Eric Trager write:

Today, Egypt's Constitutional Court made two key rulings, confirming that former prime minister and air force chief Ahmed Shafiq is allowed to run in this weekend's presidential runoff and invalidating one-third of the seats in the Islamist-controlled legislature. The surprise move throws the country's political transition into further upheaval.

The Middle East Media Sampler 6/5/2012: Peter Beinart's Crisis Of Zionism--Still No Takers

From DG:

1) Not buying Beinart

Jason Zengerle a former colleague of Peter Beinart at the New Republic examines why Beinart's "Crisis of Zionism" hasn't caught in The Israeli Desert. (h/t Ashley Perry) Reading the profile, you get the impression that some of the resistance to Beinart is personal - he seems to be a rather shameless status seeker and possesses a rather large ego.

Knowing what Beinart's written though another reason is pretty clear: there's nothing really new about his position. His is the position of J-Street that burst on the scene four years ago due to its ties to Barack Obama and a free media campaign bestowed on the group by the mainstream media. But the problem of J-Street is the problem of Beinart. No matter what they call themselves they are anti-Israel and they are trying to make their case in a pro-Israel country.

While the takedown of Beinart is welcome, Zengerle's article is unsatisfying. At one point Zengerle interviews Beinart:

Barry Rubin: Egypt’s Presidential Election: Moderate Establishment vs. Totalitarian Revolutionaries

Egypt’s Presidential Election: Moderate Establishment vs. Totalitarian Revolutionaries

by Barry Rubin

Egypt’s fate, I think, will not be settled by the June 16-17 presidential election (second round). It has already been set by the parliamentary election which has given a large majority to the Islamists as well as the ability to write the constitution. If Ahmad Shafiq defeats the Brotherhood candidate, Muhammad al-Mursi, parliament will simply make a strong prime minister (appointed by the Muslim Brotherhood) and a weak president.

But, of course, a victory for Shafiq would be significant, indicating that a lot of those who voted for Islamists in the parliamentary voting—as many as one-third of them, about 25 percent of the total population—are not eager for a Sharia state. That could be added to another 25 percent (40 percent of them Christians) who are anti-Islamist.

Shafiq, a former general and prime minister, is widely seen as a man of the old regime, Think of it this way. Suppose President Husni Mubarak had died or been disabled prior to 2011, or that the establishment had revolted and gotten rid of Mubarak on its own and chosen a successor. Shafiq might have become the new president and there would never have been a “revolution” in Tahrir Square.

The Middle East Media Sampler 5/31/12: New York Times Advertorial For J-Street

From DG:

1) J-Street without the makeup

The New York Times, featured an advertorial for J-Street, Lobbying Group Builds on Moderate Take on Israel. At the end of the article was a correction:

Each mention of the word "moderate" should be replaced with "left wing fringe."

There really was a correction; that wasn't it.

However, I'd like to rewrite selected paragraphs to show how a newspaper - as opposed to an advertising agency - would cover J-Street. I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to compare with the actual newspaper copy.

Barry Rubin: Egypt’s Presidential Election is a Defeat (Perhaps Only Temporary) For the Islamists

Egypt’s Presidential Election is a Defeat (Perhaps Only Temporary) For the Islamists

by Barry Rubin

• Muhammad Mursi (Muslim Brotherhood), 25.3 percent
• Ahmad Shafiq (ex-general, ex-prime minister), 24.9 percent
• Hamdin Sabbahi (radical left), 21.5 percent
• Abdul Moneim Aboul Fotouh (“moderate Islamist"), 19 percent
• Amr Moussa (radical nationalist), less than 10 percent

While the Brotherhood claims victory, the election was actually a defeat—at least temporary and possibly less important than it seems—for the Brotherhood and Islamism. Here’s why.

The Islamist Camp

Note that only about 44 percent of voters backed an Islamist candidate, compared to 75 percent in the parliamentary election, while only about 25 percent voted for the Muslim Brotherhood compared to about 47 percent in the parliamentary vote. Why?

Barry Rubin: NEWS FLASH: Muslim Brotherhood Claims Victory in Egypt Presidential Election

NEWS FLASH: Muslim Brotherhood Claims Victory in Egypt Presidential Election

by Barry Rubin

NEWS FLASH: Muslim Brotherhood Claims Victory in Egypt Presidential Election

Let me make it clear from the start that this article is based on Muslim Brotherhood statements and leaks. The information may not be accurate. We will not know for sure until Sunday when official tallies are provided.

According to the Brotherhood, the uncompleted vote counting for president looks like this.

• Mohamed Mursi (Brotherhood) 28.4 percent
• Ahmed Shafiq (Mubarak era general) 24.6
• Abdul Moeim Abul Fotouh (so-called “moderate Islamist” but supported by radical Islamist Salafists) 18.1
• (Hamdeen Sabahi (radical anti-American “left” Nasserist) 17.1%
• Amr Moussa (radical nationalist pragmatist) 11.6%.

Raymond Ibrahim: Egypt's Presidential Elections: What's at Stake

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted with permission:

Egypt's Presidential Elections: What's at Stake

by Raymond Ibrahim
FrontPageMagazine.com

May 24, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3250/egypt-presidential-elections

Egypt's long awaited and much anticipated presidential elections—the first of their kind to take place in the nation's 7,000 year history—are here. As we await the final results—and as the Western mainstream media fixate on images of purple-stained fingers—it is well to remember that there is much more at stake in Egypt's elections than the mere "right" to vote.

Barry Rubin: Egypt: If There’s No Danger of Radicalism and Islamism Why Can’t You Provide Evidence?

Egypt: If There’s No Danger of Radicalism and Islamism Why Can’t You Provide Evidence?

by Barry Rubin

Consider one fact that demolishes the apparatus of nonsense about moderate Islamists and the credibility of those claiming there is nothing to worry about. These are the same people who have been declaring for more than a year that the Muslim Brotherhood is moderate. Yet now the Brotherhood's presidential campaign has shown it to be extraordinarily radical, openly demanding a caliphate and Egypt being a Sharia state.

Suddenly the subject is changed. Nobody acknowledges that they were wrong about the Brotherhood. They focus now on a different candidate who we are told is the true moderate Islamist, as if their previous favorite "moderate Islamist" movement has now thrown off its camouflage.

Raymond Ibrahim: Voting in Egypt as 'Holy War'--Its Only Value, to Empower Sharia

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted with permission:

Voting in Egypt as 'Holy War'
Its Only Value, to Empower Sharia

by Raymond Ibrahim
Gatestone Institute
May 22, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3248/voting-in-egypt

Despite the fact that some in the West portray Islam and democracy as being perfectly compatible, evidence continues to emerge that, for many countries in the Middle East, democracy and elections are various means to one end: the establishment of a decidedly undemocratic form of law—Islamic, or Sharia Law.

Thus, Egyptian cleric Dr. Talat Zahran proclaimed that it is "obligatory to cheat at elections, a beautiful thing," his logic being that voting is a tool, an instrument, the only value of which is to empower Sharia. Likewise, Hazim Shuman, a cleric who has his own TV program, issued a fatwa likening the voting for Islamist candidates as a "jihad," adding that paradise awaits whoever is "martyred" during the electoral campaign.

The Middle East Media Sampler 5/22/2012: Palestinian Kidnapping Spree

From DG:

1) The kidnapping ring

One of the fears that accompanied the trade of prisoners for the release of Gilad Shalit is that the exchange would encourage more abductions.

Ha'aretz reports Shin Bet uncovers Palestinian squad bent on kidnapping Israelis in West Bank (via Daily Alert):

According to the indictment, squad members attempted to kidnap Israelis on three different occasions, driving a rental car and equipped with a taser, tear gas, clubs and a replica gun.

Raymond Ibrahim: Jihad Comes to Egypt

The following by Raymond Ibrahim is reposted with permission:

Jihad Comes to Egypt

by Raymond Ibrahim

FrontPageMagazine.com
May 10, 2012

http://www.meforum.org/3230/jihad-comes-to-egypt

Considering Egypt's presidential elections take place later this month, last weekend's Islamist clash with the military could not have come at a worse time.

First, the story: due to overall impatience—and rage that the Salafi presidential candidate, Abu Ismail, was disqualified (several secular candidates were also disqualified)—emboldened Islamists began to gather around the Defense Ministry in Abbassia, Cairo, late last week, chanting jihadi slogans, and preparing for a "million man" protest for Friday, May 4^th.

Missing Peace: Elections Bring Egypt to the Edge of Abyss

The following post by Missing Peace is reposted with permission:

Elections Bring Egypt to the Edge of Abyss

by Missing Peace

11 people were killed in deadly clashes in Cairo last week

About a year after the fall of Hosni Mubarak’s regime, the crisis in Egypt has brought the country to the edge of abyss.

The political crisis escalated shortly after the Muslim Brotherhood decided to appoint its own candidate for presidency. This decision came after the Brotherhood, together with the Salafists, obtained an overwhelming majority in the Egyptian parliament.

The Middle East Media Sampler 5/4/2012 Media Whitewashing Radical Islamists

From DG:

1) All the Islam that's fit to whitewash

David Kirkpatrick reported in Support From Islamists for Liberal Upends Race in Egypt:

Egypt’s most conservative Islamists endorsed a liberal Islamist for president late Saturday night, upending the political landscape and confounding expectations about the internal dynamics of the Islamist movement.  

The main missionary and political groups of the ultraconservatives, known as Salafis, threw their support behind Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a dissident former leader of the Muslim Brotherhood known for his tolerant and inclusive view of Islamic law. 

The endorsement goes a long way toward making Mr. Aboul Fotouh the front-runner in a campaign that could shape the ultimate outcome of the revolt that ousted the former strongman, Hosni Mubarak.

But no matter how many times Kirkpatrick describes Dr. Aboul Fotouh as "liberal," In How Egypt's Presidential Election Will Change the Middle East and the World, Barry Rubin writes:

Barry Rubin: How Egypt's Presidential Election Will Change the Middle East and the World

The following by Barry Rubin is reposted with permission:

How Egypt's Presidential Election
Will Change the Middle East and the World

By Barry Rubin

What might well be the most significant election in Middle East history is about to happen yet the situation and its implications are simply not understood abroad. On May 23-24, with a probable run-off on Jun 16-17, the most important country in the Arabic-speaking world is almost certainly going to choose a revolutionary transformation that will ensure continuous earthquakes of war, suffering, and instability for decades to come.

Barry Rubin: Egypt’s Elections: Titanic of Western Interests, Meet Iceberg of Islamist Revolutionary Zeal

Egypt’s Elections: Titanic of Western Interests, Meet Iceberg of Islamist Revolutionary Zeal

by Barry Rubin

Egypt will hold its presidential election May 23-24 with a possible run-off on June 16-17. It is impossible at this point to predict what’s going to happen but I can make a good guess. Eight weeks from now Egypt will be led by either a radical anti-American Islamist who wants to wipe Israel off the map or by a radical anti-American nationalist who just hates Israel passionately.

Let’s review the background and then analyze the likely events to come.

Since Egypt’s revolution began a year ago five propositions have monopolized the Western debate and coverage, all of which were wrong:

• –That Egypt would become a real democratic state in which human rights and civil liberties would be respected.
  
  
• –That this state would be dominated by moderate and modernist secular groups.
  
  

Barry Rubin: Egypt's Parliament 75 percent Islamist; Egypt-Israel Peace Agreement is Dead Even if Treaty Still Exists

Egypt's Parliament 75 percent Islamist; Egypt-Israel Peace Agreement is Dead Even if Treaty Still Exists

By Barry Rubin

We’re starting to get a good picture of what the lower house of Egypt’s parliament will be like, though it will take another month to be certain. Close to 50 percent of the seats will be held by the Muslim Brotherhood. Another 25 percent will be held by the al-Nour party of Salafists. With 75 percent the two Islamist parties will be able to do as they please.

But, they—or at least the Brotherhood—are determined to be cautious. Note that there is a big difference between actually being moderate and simply being patient, advancing step by step toward radical goals. The Western media will report that the Brotherhood is indeed moderate. Actually, as I review coverage over the last year it is almost impossible to find even a single article in the mass media that reports any such evidence, much less analysis, despite the massive documentation available to the contrary .

The non-Islamist seats will be held by the Wafd, nine percent, and the Free Egyptians Party, another nine percent, with the rest spread among a dozen different parties, mainly liberal with a small number of leftists. The Wafd will be willing to make deals with the Islamists in order to obtain a share of power for itself. Only the Free Egyptians will oppose them with determination.

Barry Rubin: Egypt: As Grim Islamists March Toward Power, The Naïve Dance in Tahrir Square

Egypt: As Grim Islamists March Toward Power, The Naïve Dance in Tahrir Square

Germany was having trouble,
What a sad, sad story.
Needed a new leader
To restore its former glory.
Where, oh, where was he,
Who could that man be?
We looked around,
And then we found,
The man for you and me,
And now its...
--The Producers

By Barry Rubin

Almost 80 percent of Egyptian Muslims in nine provinces voted for radical Islamist parties in the second round of Egypt’s election. Roughly 5 percent voted for a moderate Islamic party and about 15 percent voted for liberal parties.

That says it all. In the overall vote—that is, including the Christian voters–70 percent supported radical Islamists, 47 percent (4 million) the Muslim Brotherhood (86 of 180 available seats so far; they might win more) and 32 percent for the Salafists (3.2 million, the Washington Post seriously underestimated their votes).

The liberal (but not overtly anti-Islamist) Wafd won 1 million; the liberal Egyptian Bloc won almost 800,000, and the moderate Islamic, Wasat Party, 370,000.

Incidentally, the vice-chairman of the Wafd said in an interview last July that the U.S. government carried out the September 11 attacks and Ann Frank’s diary was a fake. At least he doesn’t like Iran, though he thinks it is right about the Holocaust being phony. And he’s the liberal.