Mideast Peace Talks: Where Does Obama Go From Here

Jackson Diehl writes about how the US will proceed after the collapse of the Mideast peace talks:

U.S. officials are saying that they will continue to talk to the two sides separately, beginning with meetings next week in Washington with aides to Netanyahu and Abbas. They say they will set the settlement issue aside, and -- as Arab leaders have been urging both in public and private -- focus on the more fundamental issues of a final settlement.


Yet Obama will not meet his goal of an agreement on Palestinian statehood by next August through indirect talks. So this impasse presents him with a choice: He can slow the pace and ambition of his Mideast diplomacy, bowing to the reality that, as former Secretary of State James Baker famously put it, the United States cannot want peace more than the parties themselves. That would give U.S. and Israeli officials time to quietly continue working with Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad, who is trying to build the tangible institutions and security forces needed for statehood.

Or Obama could do what Abbas, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah have wanted all along: prepare a U.S. or international plan for Palestinian statehood and try to impose it on both sides. History -- including that of the last two years -- suggests that double-or-nothing bet would produce a diplomatic fiasco for Obama and maybe a new war in the Middle East. But given Obama's personal fascination with Middle East diplomacy, there's a reasonable chance he'll try it.

The fact that the US is first going to take a step back and settle for indirect talks is an admission of failure that many pundits saw coming and predicted from the start. The question is how deeply Obama is invested on bringing about some kind of peace agreement in the next 2 years.

Considering that in recent months Obama has reassured the Muslim world that the US is not at war with them and made a point of criticizing Israel's refusal to extend the settlement moratorium, it is likely that Obama will feel impelled to push Israel further.

Obviously, Obama will push for different unilateral concessions from Israel, while assuring us that Abbas and the Palestinian Authority really want peace--even though they are unwillingly to do anything to achieve it.


Bottom line, the pressure and demands on Israel are likely to become only stronger.

Technorati Tag: Mideast Peace Talks.