Monday, April 27, 2009

US Strategy In Lebanon Election: Hamas Redux

Gee, this sounds familiar:
Ahead of an election that could oust the U.S.-backed Beirut government, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday that Washington supports "voices of moderation" and never will make a deal Syria that "sells out" Lebanon's interests.

The June 7 vote could boost the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and its allies, possibly paving the way for renewed Syrian influence over Lebanon.

"The people of Lebanon must be able to choose their own representatives in open and fair elections without the specter of violence or intimidation and free of outside interference," Clinton told a news conference after meeting with President Michel Suleiman. [emphasis added]
This is of course the same kind of US attitude we saw back in 2006 leading up to the "open and fair" elections that put Hamas in power, something that has actually occured to the new administration:
While urging free and fair elections, the Obama administration is treading carefully. The Bush administration encouraged the Palestinian legislative elections in 2006 and then saw the radical Hamas movement win handily and badly damage efforts to broker an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.

Reflecting that concern, Clinton met during her brief stay with just one senior official, Suleiman.

U.S. officials say her meeting with Suleiman only is because the U.S. doesn't want to be seen as taking sides in the elections. Suleiman is considered a consensus leader and neutral in the political struggle.
As things stand now, due to the power-sharing system in Lebanese politics, Hizbollah would not be able to seize control regardless of the outcome of the election--merely strengthen and consolidate their control.

I suppose that is why Secretary of State Clinton put her foot down:
Before leaving Lebanon, Clinton stopped at Hariri's grave to lay a wreath. She renewed U.S. support for an international tribunal based in the Netherlands to try his killers. "There needs to be an absolute end to an era of impunity for political assassinations in Lebanon," Clinton said.
Yet this has not stopped the US from talking to Syria. I suppose that referring to Hizbollah and Hamas, which both have connections with Syria, as 'militants' does help to get around the fact that Syria helps sponsors 2 terrorist groups, one of which is tightening its grip on Lebanon.

But its all good--after all, assurances to Israel and Lebanon are surely no less sincere than those made to Iraq:
“Let me assure you and repeat what President Obama said, we are committed to Iraq, we want to see a stable, sovereign, self-reliant Iraq,” she told a nervous but receptive crowd at a town hall meeting at the U.S. Embassy here.
[Hat tip: Instapundit]

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