As the New York Times revealed recently, Turkey -- once a close ally of the Syrian regime -- is hosting an armed opposition group against President Bashar al-Assad. Turkey is sheltering the Free Syrian Army, and allegedly allowing them to run operations and wage attacks on Syria from a refugee camp on Turkey's border.
The Henry Jackson Society has publishe d a strategic briefing, " Turkey and the Arab Spring," analysing the country's foreign policy in the light of the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa. In the last decade, Turkey's pragmatic "zero-problems" foreign policy resulted in better relations and trade with its Middle Eastern neighbours. However, with the upheavals of the Arab Spring, Turkey's relations with Israel at an all-time low, the country's belated public support for the revolution in Syria and an escalation of the Cyprus-European Union (EU) issue, it is questionable whether this "zero problems" policy is still relevant or workable.
The executive summary states: the lack of consistency in Turkey's responses to the revolutions and regarding the on-going statelessness of the Kurds and the Palestinians belies Prime Minister Erdoğan's commitment to a moral foreign policy. Amid concerns that Turkey is abandoning its long-standing commitment to the West, Turkey's current relations with Israel, Egypt, Syria and the EU demonstrate both far-reaching regional and international ambitions - independent of the US.
Israel / Palestine
- Tensions between the Turkey and Israel deteriorated sharply last month following the United Nations Palmer Report into the Israel Defence Force (IDF) raid on the Gaza flotilla in May 2010, during which nine Turks were killed.
- In September 2011, Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoğlu reiterated that without a formal apology and compensation to the families of the deceased, Turkish-Israeli relations "would not be normalised".
- Turkey's increasingly aggressive attitude toward Israel appears designed to increase its regional popularity - during Erdoğan's "Arab Spring Tour" he asserted Turkey as a regional power-broker, a defender of moral foreign policy and champion of Palestinian self-determination.
- Erdoğan's closeness to Hamas and the Turkish charity IHH that organized the Gaza flotilla, designated by Israel for terrorist connections, as well as his on-going oppression of Turkey's Kurdish population, cast doubts over the sincerity of Erdoğan's promotion of Palestinian self-determination.
- Turkey is openly seeking to build a regional partnership with Egypt, with the goal of establishing a new axis of power in the Middle East in the midst of the power vacuum created by the Arab Spring and as United States (US) influence in the region is waning. Grounded in Turkish economic investment in post-Mubarak Egypt, the partnership is a stepping stone to regional - and international - power.
- Turkey's gestures towards Egypt come at a time when Egypt's political direction remains unclear, particularly regarding its future relations with Israel and the US.
- Erdoğan's public criticism of Israel at the Arab League in Cairo in September 2011 was favourably compared by Egypt's national press to the muted actions of Egypt's ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) in response to Israeli incursions into the Sinai Peninsula in August 2011, during which six Egyptian border guards were shot and killed.
- Erdoğan's speech was well received by the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist party now expected to win a large share of votes in Egypt's upcoming elections.
Syria
- Turkey's initial response to the Syrian uprising was muted - in stark contrast to Erdoğan's immediate calls for regime change in Egypt, where Turkey called on Mubarak to go before the US did, and Turkey's involvement in the no-fly zone in Libya.
- In August - when the death toll in Syria had exceeded 2,200 - Turkey was promoting dialogue with President Assad's regime and internal reform. However, as the international community united in calls for Assad to go, Turkey relented, this month saying it would impose its own sanctions on Syria.
- Erdoğan's Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) is promoting the Muslim Brotherhood within the Syrian opposition: the Syrian National Council was prematurely announced, allegedly by secular young Syrian activists in an attempt to stop "the AKP trying to make their revolution a Muslim Brotherhood-led affair".
- Erdoğan's credibility among the Syrian opposition is diminishing amid allegations thatTurkey handed a rebel Syrian officer back to the Assad regime. Turkey's prior closeness to the regime, which it had argued could precipitate reform, has given way to inaction, wilful or otherwise.
European Union
- Turkey entered into a customs union with the EU in 1996 and negotiations for entry into the EU began in 2005. However, with the Eurozone in crisis and Turkey's economy and regional status growing, relations with the EU are worsening.
- Turkey's domestic human rights record, its inability to resolve the Kurdish issue as well opposition from other European members has virtually stalled its bid to join the EU - no progress has been made in the last year.
- EU peace talks regarding Cyprus have faltered, and Turkey publicly threatened the country with a naval presence in September 2011 following a disagreement over gas exploration in the Mediterranean.
- European politicians are divided over Turkey's recent criticism of Israel. While some claim it will negatively impact on accession talks and damage relations, others express sympathy over Israel's refusal to compromise over Turkey's demands
For further reading on Turkey's role in the Syrian opposition, please see HJS Communications Director Michael Weiss' latest article in The Atlantic.
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