AT THIS RATE...Mr. Bagel has a post about a disturbing trend in Jerusalem:

The capital's Arab population has increased at more than twice the rate of its Jewish inhabitants over the last decade, according to a survey released by the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies on Monday.

...The Arab growth rate over the last decade was 3-4%, the survey found, more than double that for Jews.

On the other hand, there is news like this:

The Arab fertility rate in Jerusalem has dropped slightly and the Jewish fertility rate has risen in the past few years, according to a joint American-Israeli report submitted to Mayor Uri Lupolianski. The report asserts that in 2005 both the Arab and Jewish birthrates were 3.9 children per woman, the first time the two birthrates have been equal.

The bad news is that both Mr. Bagel's source and mine are the same: The Jerusalem Post. There have been strong indications that past demographic studies have been badly flawed because they relied on data provided by the Palestinians--so why are 2 articles from the same newspaper just 5 months apart so different. Even taking into account that Mr. Bagel's source is talking about growth rate, while mine is referring to birth rate, take into account the following formula from Wikipedia

Growth Rate = [(birth + immigration)-(deaths+emigration)]/population

along with the fact of Jewish immigration and Palestinian emigration. According to Israel Today, 10,000 Palestinians emigrated last year alone and 50,000 are seeking foreign citizenship--leading Sheikh Hamad al-Bitawi to issue a fatwa forbidding Palestinian Arabs from emigrating.

Considering how policies are being justified in part because of demographic data, Israel had better clarify just what the demographic situation is.

Technorati Tag: Israel.