Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Oy, Does Iran Have Tzuris!

Michael Ledeen gives an update on the news in Iran--not good, if you happen to live in Iran. Here is a shortened version of the items he lists:
• First of all, there is still no end to the bazaar strike, even though the regime has taken very violent action against the strikers.

• The major natural gas pipeline between Iran and Turkey was sabotaged.

• Saturday – Sunday night there was a serious fire at the old petrochemical plant on Kharq island.

• You may recall that a bit over a week ago, amidst the continuing strikes at major bazaars around the country, there was a double suicide terrorist attack against the mosque in Zahedan, killing nearly 30 revolutionary guards.

• It has been a very hot summer, and the electrical grid in and around Tehran has given up the ghost many times, especially in recent weeks.

• As the regime increasingly wages war against itself, the comings and goings of seemingly powerful people have become almost impossible to sort out. There have been repeated purges in the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards, and the supreme commander, Gen. Jafari, has now publicly stated that many senior officers had actively sided with the opposition.
Read the whole thing.

To that list you can add the apparent effect the trade embargo against Iran is having:
Only three cargoes of gasoline have reached Iran so far in July, according to a shipping document seen by Reuters, much less than the seasonal norm, as new sanctions divert ships carrying fuel.

A series of sanctions agreed since June over Iran's disputed nuclear program target the country's oil trade and industry, making it harder to do business with the Islamic Republic. The EU formally adopted its latest measures on Monday.

Iran is the world's fifth-largest crude exporter, but has to import around 40 percent of its gasoline needs because it does not have enough domestic refining capacity.

Traditionally during the summer holiday driving season, Iran needs 11-13 cargoes a month, a Dubai-based trader told Reuters.
On top of all this we have the ongoing battle among different groups in Iran, resulting in an undercutting of Ahmadinejad's power base.

Better and better.

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NormanF said...

The current Iranian regime is not like the Shah's. It rules by divine edict and is not going to be bothered by a respect for human life to maintain itself in power. The mullahs have no compunction massacring large numbers of their own people to maintain their privileged position. And while the Iranian people can only refuse to cooperate with the regime, they lack the means to bring about its demise.

Daled Amos said...

And while the Iranian people can only refuse to cooperate with the regime, they lack the means to bring about its demise.
I don't know about that--if what Ledeen writes is true, Iranians can be a considerable impediment to the regime.

That, combined with some level of sanctions that may constitute a considerable thorn in there side, could encourage the kind of numbers that we saw on a regular basis a year ago.

And that kind of unified front would cause the regime a not inconsiderable problem