Where Have All The Palestinian Moderates Gone? (Updated)

When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?
Pete Seeger--Where Have All The Flowers Gone?

It's clear enough why after 6 months, Israelis are wary of Obama. Shmuel Rosner writes:

But words alone will not make Israelis trust Obama. Israelis do not suffer from lack of understanding of the issues; they suffer from peace-fatigue. They look at "peace processes" with suspicion, based on experience and events. They are scarred enough to know what has working and what has not, and they are tired of the good intentions of enthusiastic novices, believing that with their youth and their smarts they'll be able to come up with some magic trick that can somehow round a square. What Obama needs is a convincing plan that makes sense. It does not look like he has one.

But what about Israel's peace partners? What about Fatah? The whole point of Obama's Cairo speech, of making Abbas his first phone call as president, of applying pressure only on Israel on settlements: all this was--along with Obama's Muslim creds--were geared towards jumpstarting the peace talks and bringing the Muslim world into the process.

The Result? As Time Magazine puts it: Fatah Conference Aims to Boost Its Radical Credentials. Not only did Obama lead the Arab world to believe that they in general, and Fatah in particular, could just sit back while Obama did all the work and get all of the concessions out of Israel--he strengthened in their view that they would not have to concede anything. If anything, Fatah saw no risk in building up its radical creds during the General Assembly this week in Bethlehem, in preparation for next years Palestinian election. Khaled Abu Toameh writes:

Perhaps one of the most disturbing signs of the growing radicalization of Fatah can be seen in calls by top representatives for a "strategic alliance" with Iran's dictatorial and fundamental regime.

...To further strengthen the old guard camp, Abbas sought and received permission
from Israel to allow Mohammed Ghnaim, a hard-line Fatah leader, to move from
Tunisia to the West Bank. Ghnaim is one of a handful of senior Fatah leaders who
remain strongly opposed to the Oslo Accords, insisting that the "armed struggle"
against Israel is the only way to "liberate Palestine."

Ghnaim is now being touted as Abbas's successor as head of Fatah and the
Palestinian Authority as to ensure the continuity of the old guard hegemony over the
affairs of the Palestinians in the West Bank.

...Many Fatah operatives, including some of Abbas's closest allies in Ramallah, have
made it known that they would oppose any move to abandon the "armed struggle"
option during the Bethlehem assembly.

Their statements came in response to reports according to which the Fatah
conference is set to endorse a more moderate and pragmatic approach toward the
conflict with Israel.

Moreover, a majority of Fatah members appear to be vehemently opposed to the idea of recognizing Israel as a Jewish state. A draft plan of Fatah's political platform that was leaked to some Arab media outlets last week clearly states that Fatah will remain strongly opposed to Israel's demand that the Palestinians recognize the state as a homeland for the Jewish people.

In other signs of continued intransigence, the political platform opposes any
concessions regarding the "right of return" of Palestinians to their original homes
inside Israel.

In his article in Foreign Policy, Where Have All The Palestinian Moderates Gone? David Schenker writes about appearances and reality in the Middle East:

In October 1999, while researching a book on Palestinian politics, I had coffee with then Palestinian Minister of Labor Rafik Natsheh on the patio of the InterContinental Hotel in Amman, Jordan. A member of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)'s Fatah Central Committee, Natsheh was a consummate political insider, but he was also a courageous and outspoken critic of Palestinian President Yasir Arafat's authoritarian tendencies at a time when deference to Arafat and support for violent resistance constituted the rough center of Palestinian politics. During our meeting, Natsheh struck me as soft-spoken, thoughtful, and politically "moderate." I subsequently wrote in my book that "it was clear that he [Natsheh] had become, surprisingly, a supporter of Oslo" -- the 1993 accord that laid the foundation for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to end the conflict.

I hadn't thought about that Amman meeting in years, until last week, when I read an interview with Natsheh in the pan-Arab daily Al-Quds al-Arabi, where he said that Fatah, the faction of the PLO that led the campaign to forge peace with Israel through direct negotiations, "does not recognize Israel's right to exist." He added that Fatah had likewise never abandoned the armed struggle. What's more troubling, Natsheh's authoritative interview is the latest in a series of previously deniable comments by current and former senior Fatah officials -- including one-time Gaza security chief Mohammed Dahlan -- that undercut the fundamental premise of Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking: the renunciation of violence and the acceptance of Israel's right to exist. [emphasis added]

Previously deniable? Has the State Department ever come out of denial?

Despite recent Arab statements opposing US demands for confidence-building steps towards Israel, the US anticipates it will have the pieces in place to formally re-launch the Arab-Israel peace process in the coming weeks.

The Obama administration is seeking a complete freeze on Israeli settlements in exchange for Palestinian security reforms and Arab gestures towards Israel. With those in place, the US plans to announce both those steps and a resumption of negotiations, likely at an international conference, a senior State Department official told The Jerusalem Post Monday. He noted that no final decision had been made about the format, and that a simultaneous release of press announcements in various capitals or other mechanisms might be used.

In areas of domestic policy, it appears that the Democratic Congress is the driving force, with Obama playing the cheerleader.

In foreign policy, especially when it comes to Israel, it may be that the State Department is taking the lead as never before--even in the absence of those chimerical Fatah moderates.

UPDATE: Barry Rubin writes, "Three additional facts have come out regarding the Fatah Congress that makes it look even worse":

o Apparently, Mahmoud Abbas packed the delegation that the "younger generation" withdrew its candidates for the Central Committee election. "Younger generation" are generally Palestinian Arabs who lived in the West Bank or Gaza Strip since 1948, and is probably more likely to prefer armed struggle.

o There talk about the successor to Abbas being Muhammed Ghnaim who, as noted above, rejects Oslo and prefers armed struggle.

o Individual terrorists who murdered Israeli civilians in cold blood were greeted as heroes at the meeting and applauded.

Read the whole thing.

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