While Obama's 'Change' Falls Flat, Other Countries Are Looking To Change The Status Quo

The change I am thinking of has to do with the dominance that the US has enjoyed as a world power--and the world's one Superpower--for decades. That position is in jeopardy, and from old enemies, especially Russia.

A growing flashpoint is Iran. Roger Cohen--with whom I have disagreed in the past on Iran--appears to be on target when he writes:

If the Saudis are difficult, they pale by comparison with the Russians and Chinese, who are partners with the U.S. in the six-power effort (known as P5+1) to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Indeed, what looms for the Obama administration is a core test, over Iran, of its new foreign-policy doctrine. This was defined by Hillary Clinton as follows: “We will lead by inducing greater cooperation among a greater number of actors and reducing competition, tilting the balance away from a multipolar world and toward a multipartner world.”

But for all Obama’s efforts to multipartner — by reviving the relationship with Russia and a similar outreach to the Chinese — it is far from clear that Moscow and Beijing do not still see America’s Iran problem as a useful tool in building a multipolar world less dominated by Washington. Getting them to impose sanctions that really bite will be difficult. Iran is awash in Chinese products — trade has boomed in recent years — and it supplies 15 percent of China’s oil.

“It’s going to be very tough,” one senior administration official told me. “The Russian calculus about Iran is only partly about their relationship with Iran and partly about their view of us. Everyone agrees it’s not a great idea for this Iranian regime to acquire a nuclear weapon, but there’s not the same urgency we have, and certainly not the same as the Israelis have.”

The problem is that the Obama's 'talking cure' for world problems have the potential to make countries such as Russia detect weakness and act upon that impression. Back in March, Obama denied rumor that in a letter to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev he offered to kill a proposed missile system in exchange for Russia's help in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear arms.

But come July, Obama was singing a different tune:

"I know Russia opposes the planned configuration for missile defence in Europe . . . I have made it clear that this system is directed at preventing a potential attack from Iran and has nothing to do with Russia," Mr Obama said in a speech to students graduating from Moscow's New Economic School.

"I want us to work together on a missile defence architecture that makes us all safer. But if the threat from Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes is eliminated, the driving force for missile defence in Europe will be eliminated. That is in our mutual interest."

According to Obama, missile defense in Europe is primarily a reaction to the threat of Iran.

Georgia might disagree:

the Russian media are now abuzz with speculation about a new war in Georgia, and some Western analysts are voicing similar concerns. The idea seems insane. Nonetheless, the risk is real.

One danger sign is persistent talk of so-called Georgian aggression against the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Russia recognized as independent states after the war last August. "Georgia is rattling its weapons . . . and has not given up on attempts to solve its territorial problems by any means," Gen. Nikolai Makarov, who commanded Russian troops in Georgia in 2008, told the Novosti news agency on June 17. Similar warnings have been aired repeatedly by the state-controlled media.

Independent Russian commentators, such as columnist Andrei Piontkovsky, note that this has the feel of a propaganda campaign to prepare the public for a second war.

Truth be told, considering Obama's lack of backbone in his reaction to the protests in Iran--not to mention his tepid response to Russia's invasion of Georgia last year--there seems to be little reason for Russia to be concerned that Obama would do anything with a missile defense should Russia indeed take further action against Georgia, or against any other country for that matter.

What Obama is not considering is that if the US disarms, that will leave a void that other nations will seek to fill with their own nuclear arms.

Likewise, if the US shrinks from its responsibility as a Superpower, there are countries that will be only to happy to fill that void as well.

Technorati Tag: Obama and Russia.