If Abbas Is Staying--What Was He Promised?

How's this for an ominous headline:Palestinians: Netanyahu to accept understandings reached by Olmert

Palestinian sources said Sunday that Israel agreed that negotiations would not start from scratch, and that in some issues, understandings reached by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will form the basis for talks. Israel, however, denied the Palestinian claims.


The Palestinian sources declined to say which issues were involved, but said the understandings dealt with security issues and other fundamental issues. Ynet has learned that one of the issues is the agreement over land exchanges, and the ratio and quality of land exchanged. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu so far has not committed himself to understandings reached by President Mahmoud Abbas' predecessor, and sources close to the prime minister continue to deny the Palestinian claims.

First of all, there was nothing signed between Olmert and Abbas, so there is nothing legally binding that would obligate Netanyahu to tie his hands by picking up where Olmert left off. Secondly, there is no reason for Israel to make concessions as long as Abbas fails to stop the incitement in the West Bank against Israel.

Also, though no one brings it up, is Abbas's own lack of a mandate, his lack of support among the Arabs of Gaza and among the political institutions--not to mention the incompetence and corruption.

Then there is the fact that El Presidente Abbas is technically no longer the elected head of the Palestinian Authority, since his term ended almost 2 years ago.

As far as what previous talks between Abbas and Olmert go, as I have written about before, in an interview in Novermber 2009, Olmert says he met with Abbas over 35 times--and made the following proposals to Abbas:

o 1967 Borders: Territorial solution to the conflict on the basis of the 1967 borders with minor modifications on both sides. Israel will claim part of the West Bank where there have been demographic changes over the last 40 years. This would have involved Israel claiming about 6.4 per cent of Palestinian territory in the West Bank. All the lands that before 1967 were buffer zones between the two populations would have been split in half. In return there would be a swap of land (to the Palestinians) from Israel as it existed before 1967. Olmert proposed a safe passage between the West Bank and Gaza--a tunnel fully controlled by the Palestinians but not under Palestinian sovereignty, otherwise it would have cut the state of Israel in two.

o Jerusalem. Olmert agreed that the city should be shared. Jewish neighbourhoods would be under Jewish sovereignty, Arab neighbourhoods would be under Palestinian sovereignty, so it could be the capital of a Palestinian state.

o Palestinian refugees. Olmert told Abbas he would never agree to a right of return. Instead,  on a humanitarian basis Israel would accept a certain number every year for five years, on the basis that this would be the end of conflict and the end of claims. Olmert suggested 1000 per year. In addition, there would be an international fund that would compensate Palestinians for their suffering.

o Security issues. Olmert says he showed Abbas a map, which embodied all these plans. Abbas wanted to take the map away. Olmert agreed, so long as they both signed the map. It was, from Olmert's point of view, a final offer, not a basis for future negotiation. But Abbas could not commit. Instead, he said he would come with experts the next day.

Abbas's response:

"He (Abbas) promised me the next day his adviser would come. But the next day Saeb Erekat rang my adviser and said we forgot we are going to Amman today, let's make it next week. I never saw him again."

Not surprisingly, then--as now--there is no mention of any kind of offer from Abbas conceding on any point.

Olmert offers his own suggestion for a demand that Israel should make of Abbas before agreeing to return to the negotiating table:

"To this day we should ask Abu Mazen to respond to this plan. If they (the Palestinians) say no, there's no point negotiating."

Though Israel is denying that the Olmert understandings are on the table, if they are, that would explain why Abbas is still at the table:

Ynet has also learned that Palestinian leaders have decided that if Israel's construction freeze in the West Bank is not renewed, this is not a reason to call off the talks, and that the Palestinians will have to learn to live with some building, especially in the main settlement blocs. However, they also expect the US to strongly oppose building in any other territory.

So the question returns as to what kind of pressure will be placed on Netanyahu--and how will he respond to it.

Meanwhile, Abbas seems to think that by agreeing to show up, he has conceded all that he has to.

Technorati Tag: Mideast Peace Talks and Abbas.