Barack and Netanyahu: How Long Will The Honeymoon Last?

Barry Rubin examines the change in the political landscape that has resulted in Barack Hearts Bibi:

What is the basis of this new era? When it came to office, the Obama Administration was in radical mode, determined to distance itself from Israel as a key to winning over Arabs and Muslims, assuming that peace could be achieved with sufficient pressure on Israel as the only requirement, and hostile to Israel’s current government.

A measure of reality eventually set in, involving a large number of factors ranging from the lack of Arab cooperation, to Iran’s intransigence, the lack of progress in engaging Syria, and the tasks of dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan. The administration’s head-on charge over demanding a freeze of construction on settlements only produced a one-year-plus delay on Israel-Palestinian negotiations. The Palestinian Authority (PA) was uncooperative. American public opinion was unhappy with the policy toward Israel.

This is not to say that the situation is simple but by September 2010 things are very different.
The Obama Administration is desperate for diplomatic successes, or at least the appearance of having them. What’s happening regarding Iran’s nuclear weapons’ drive cannot be concealed or ignored.

The U.S. government is also is aware of falling public support--including a sharp decline in Jewish backing though pro-Israel forces extend far more widely throughout American society—on the eve of American elections. In addition, it’s clear that Netanyahu’s government isn’t going away and there is no “dovish” alternative that will give Obama everything he wants for little or nothing in exchange.

So now Obama needs Netanyahu. He needs to keep the new peace talks going and looking good. The president also requires that Netanyahu keep things quiet on the Israel-Palestinian front so as—so he thinks—to make it easier to get Arab and Muslim support or other U.S. policies. And since Obama’s orientation is mainly domestic and his world view is horrified by power politics, he wants to avoid international crises generally. Anti-Israel officials in the administration are being ignored.

Read the whole thing.

This 'love affair' may last for a year, but what happens after this one year peace process ends with no peace? What will be after the one-year honeymoon is over? Will Obama be fickle and make new overtures to the Arab world?

For that matter, what happens if it should become clear that--as some pundits claim--Obama turns out to be a one term candidate who does not intend to run again.

Some have pondered what would happen if a major Republican victory results in a lame duck Congress with nothing to lose and ideas for bills it has been reluctant to pass--what would a lame duck President be like? Would the end of his term end as it began, with the idea that just enough pressure can result in that elusive Mideast peace that could be his legacy?

It's still off in the future, but the 2012 election is not that far off--as the video supporting Hillary for President reminds us.

Technorati Tag: Mideast Peace Talks and Obama.