Thursday, December 13, 2012

From August 2005: Hamas Predictions About Kassam Rockets Against Israel After Disengagement

Back in August 2005, Aaron Klein wrote:Hamas Launching Rocket War After Gaza Evacuation, with the subtitle: "Terrorist group foresees massive attacks as next stage of 'conflict'":
A research center affiliated with Hamas has published a study concluding the Palestinian group is likely to launch rockets against towns in Judea and Samaria after Israel withdraws its Jewish communities from Gaza.

The study follows an announcement last month on Hamas’ official website that the group will continue its war to destroy Israel by launching Qassam rockets at Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and communities in Judea and Samaria.

According to the Al-Mustaqbal Research Center in Gaza, among the likely scenarios after Israel evacuates Gaza Aug. 17 is for Hamas to “[massively] use upgraded Qassam rockets, the strategic weapons of the future Palestinian-Israeli conflict” against Jewish communities near Gaza and in Judea and Samaria.
The scenarios described, in retrospect, were accurate:
Credit: Wiki Commons

  • A brief period of calm in the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation, which Palestinians will use for a thorough examination of their internal affairs. According to the study, the United States and Israel will want to supervise this process.

  • A limited, restrained conflict. The study emphasizes the use of Qassam rockets, predicting difficulties in carrying out suicide bombing attacks in Judea and Samaria because Israel’s security fence in the area will have been completed.

  • Increased anarchy in Gaza and a confrontation between the Palestinian Authority and the various Palestinian organizations. Hamas states in the study it is against a civil war, but if the group has no choice it will “not hesitate to confront the PA”

  • A renewal of the overall confrontation with Israel, which will include the massive use of upgraded Qassam rockets near Gaza and in Judea and Samaria, the “strategic weapons” of the future Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
The use of Qassam rockets by Hamas terrorists against Israeli civilians was not new in 2005, but with Israel's Disengagement from Gaza, Hamas declared their intent to substitute suicide bombings with attacks on Israeli communities located close to the border with Gaza -- with the goal to attack not military targets, but rather "Israeli population centers".

Even then, Hamas and Islamic Jihad were launching rockets against civilians 3 times a day.

A month earlier, Hamas announced on their website:
Afula, Hadera, Beit She’an, Netanya, Tel-Aviv, Jerusalem and other cities will all fall within the range of the Qassam rocket. … The implication is that this rocket, which was previously looked upon with disdain by many, will serve as the weapon of choice in the coming period of time, as the acts of suicide martyrdom served as the weapon of choice during all the previous years...

“From a technical standpoint, the Zionist army presently does not have any means to intercept an airborne Qassam rocket. The only possibility, therefore, of stopping the fire, if possible, is to strike the operating cells or the rockets themselves, a moment before they are launched.

A pre-emptive strike against the attacking cell is a complicated and almost impossible affair. According to the assessments of the Zionist army, the members of the resistance bring the missiles in vans and unload them under the cover of agricultural activity. This makes them more difficult to expose. Furthermore, the timeframe available to the Zionist forces is a quarter of an hour at the most. It takes that long for the resistance members to aim the rockets and activate them at a distance using an electronic timer. To foil the action, the army needs to keep combat helicopters in the air for 24 hours a day, seven days a week. It is, therefore, highly bothersome.

...Jerusalem and other cities will all fall within the range of the Qassam 1 rocket, and there will not even be need for the Qassam 2 rocket.

...The only solution, as far as the Zionist establishment is concerned, is severe retaliation for every Qassam rocket launched, in order to teach the Palestinians a lesson and make them think a thousand times before launching any kind of rocket. [But] have all the previous mass murders and the acts of hostility carried out as collective punishment quenched the fire of resistance, or, rather, have they served as a catalyst for the increasing sophistication of the creative methods of the resistance [factions]?
Read the whole thing.

Hamas predictions back then turned out to be fairly accurate, though they overestimated the range of their Qassam rockets and their ability to reach Tel Aviv and Jerusalem -- nor did they foresee the possibility of an Iron Dome.

But they were right about the difficulty of preventive measures.

Now, following Operation Pillar of Defense, there is a "ceasefire" between Israel and Hamas. And who knows how long that may last.

Reading an article from 7 years ago that so clearly lays out what the intent of Hamas terrorists was, is frustrating -- regardless of Iron Dome, David's Sling or whatever defensive weapon Israel develops, the one weapon that Israel could have used -- but didn't -- was sechel (common sense).

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